TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CWS

Playable air · 1.05×

MIN @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Randal Grichuk conv 32 · vs Matthews ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 27 · vs Fedde → edge: Randal Grichuk

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 84

1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●●●

2 Tristan Peters +625 C ●●●●●

3 Colson Montgomery +265 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Erick Fedde RHP · CWS

leak 26

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee +425 C ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Luke Keaschall +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randal Grichuk: Match 31.5% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Randal Grichuk ✶ vs Matthews — 0.268 · 91.1 · 11.2% 33.3% 31.5% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Matthews Edge +625 0.188 · 87.5 · 7.8% 38.5% 21.8% F B O C 54

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Matthews Edge +265 0.219 · 88.8 · 11.3% 25.0% 28.8% F B O C+ 64

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Fedde Edge +425 0.184 · 88.1 · 5.5% 33.3% 20.4% F B O C 53

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Fedde Edge +305 0.232 · 92.5 · 9.9% 25.0% 25.0% F B O C+ 64

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Matthews +305 0.233 · 90.6 · 11.9% 7.7% 17.9% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Matthews Edge +400 0.176 · 88.9 · 9.3% 10.0% 12.4% F B O C 51

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Matthews Edge +235 0.268 · 93.9 · 14.2% 0.0% 21.5% F B O C+ 67

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Fedde +330 0.168 · 89.8 · 9.5% 8.3% 12.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Fedde +575 0.118 · 85.6 · 5.5% 16.7% 9.3% F B O D 41

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Fedde Edge +525 0.156 · 87.8 · 7.8% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Matthews Edge +625 0.127 · 89.0 · 6.4% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Fedde Edge +370 0.161 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 49

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Matthews +950 0.126 · 87.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 41

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Fedde Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Matthews Edge +700 0.121 · 87.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Erick Fedde — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Zebby Matthews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Montgomery Grichuk Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Randal Grichuk — · 63

Tristan Peters +625 · 54

Colson Montgomery +265 · 64

Brooks Lee +425 · 53

Kody Clemens +305 · 64

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Erick Fedde · RHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 64 C+ +305 WARM 7 0.232 92.5 9.9% 19.8%vs RHP 391 18.3% 25.0% 25.0% 31

2 Brooks Lee 53 C +425 HOT 46 0.184 88.1 5.5% 22.1%vs RHP 372 16.4% 33.3% 20.4% 44

3 Royce Lewis 53 C +330 COOL 49 0.168 89.8 9.5% 15.5%vs RHP 402 14.6% 8.3% 12.8% 39

4 Josh Bell 49 D +370 COOL 80 0.161 89.8 8.6% 18.8%vs RHP 407 10.8% 0.0% 10.2% 35

5 Trevor Larnach 47 D +525 WARM 93 0.156 87.8 7.8% 15.0%vs RHP 395 9.3% 10.0% 9.4% 27

6 Luke Keaschall 41 D +575 HOT 138 0.118 85.6 5.5% 10.5%vs RHP 378 7.4% 16.7% 9.3% 42

7 Victor Caratini 39 D — COOL 155 0.102 89.5 7.2% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 7

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 67 C+ +235 COOL 3 0.268 93.9 14.2% 37.7%vs RHP 404 17.6% 0.0% 21.5% 21

2 Colson Montgomery 64 C+ +265 WARM 6 0.219 88.8 11.3% 25.3%vs RHP 397 21.6% 25.0% 28.8% 24

3 Randal Grichuk ✶ 63 C+ — · 8 0.268 91.1 11.2% 16.7%vs RHP 393 14.3% 33.3% 31.5% 11

4 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ +305 COOL 11 0.233 90.6 11.9% 17.3%vs RHP 393 19.7% 7.7% 17.9% 36

5 Tristan Peters 54 C +625 HOT 41 0.188 87.5 7.8% 14.7%vs RHP 377 11.8% 38.5% 21.8% 33

6 Andrew Benintendi 51 C +400 · 59 0.176 88.9 9.3% 17.1%vs RHP 388 12.9% 10.0% 12.4% 30

7 Braden Montgomery 41 D +625 WARM 133 0.127 89.0 6.4% 15.4%vs RHP 390 5.9% 9.1% 9.1% 38

8 Chase Meidroth 41 D +950 COOL 137 0.126 87.4 6.6% 15.1%vs RHP 379 7.5% 0.0% 9.8% 40

9 Sam Antonacci 41 D +700 COOL 139 0.121 87.2 7.4% 12.3%vs RHP 390 7.9% 0.0% 8.7% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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