TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.89×

NYY @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-6 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -5

Best of game Paul Goldschmidt conv 23 · vs Buehler ⟷ Ty France conv 22 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 71

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●●○

2 Jazz Chisholm — D ●●●○○

3 Ben Rice +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 9

0.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.89 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +700 D ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill +575 D ●●●○○

3 Fernando Tatis — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 16.1% · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt HOT vs Buehler — 0.209 · 86.8 · 9.3% 25.0% 21.9% F B O C 50

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Buehler Edge +390 0.264 · 91.9 · 10.8% 8.3% 16.1% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Ty France COOL vs Fried Edge +700 0.219 · 91.9 · 5.1% 25.0% 19.5% F B O D 43

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.174 · 90.8 · 8.3% 25.0% 13.6% F B O D 43

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Fried +575 0.177 · 90.9 · 5.6% 25.0% 12.2% F B O D 39

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Buehler Edge +525 0.184 · 90.6 · 8.8% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 44

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Fried Edge — 0.165 · 92.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 18.3% F B O D 32

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Buehler Edge +500 0.152 · 88.9 · 7.0% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 38

· NYY Austin Wells vs Buehler Edge +700 0.127 · 89.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 36

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Buehler Edge +700 0.150 · 91.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 40

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Buehler +850 0.135 · 83.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 30

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Fried Edge +525 0.183 · 90.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 35

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Fried Edge — 0.109 · 87.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 24

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Fried Edge +950 0.103 · 89.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 24

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Fried — 0.076 · 87.2 · 2.9% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Max Fried — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Chisholm France Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Paul Goldschmidt — · 50

Ty France +700 · 43

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph cross 73°F open

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

74°F

6:40p · peak

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

71°F

7:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

8:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · cross

68°F

9:40p

-6

↑

4 mph · cross

67°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 73°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 57 C +390 COOL 33 0.264 91.9 10.8% 30.9%vs RHP 394 23.5% 8.3% 16.1% 34

2 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — HOT 66 0.209 86.8 9.3% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.9% 25.0% 21.9% 18

3 Trent Grisham 44 D +525 · 110 0.184 90.6 8.8% 21.4%vs RHP 388 13.3% 8.3% 10.9% 31

4 Jazz Chisholm 43 D — COOL 118 0.174 90.8 8.3% 21.7%vs RHP 384 16.7% 25.0% 13.6% 31

5 Ryan Mcmahon 40 D +700 COOL 148 0.150 91.1 8.8% 19.2%vs RHP 387 12.5% 0.0% 10.9% 3

6 Cody Bellinger 38 D +500 · 178 0.152 88.9 7.0% 11.6%vs RHP 378 9.2% 9.1% 8.0% 40

7 Austin Wells 36 D +700 WARM 182 0.127 89.3 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 379 8.1% 0.0% 12.0% 21

8 Jose Caballero 30 D +850 WARM 219 0.135 83.8 5.8% 22.5%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 34

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.89 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 43 D +700 COOL 114 0.219 91.9 5.1% 22.2%vs LHP 390 16.7% 25.0% 19.5% 34

2 Jackson Merrill 39 D +575 WARM 159 0.177 90.9 5.6% 14.3%vs LHP 412 15.9% 25.0% 12.2% 36

3 Manny Machado 35 D +525 COOL 190 0.183 90.5 5.0% 14.8%vs LHP 397 16.5% 0.0% 8.8% 33

4 Fernando Tatis 32 D — WARM 206 0.165 92.8 5.9% 46.7%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 43

5 Freddy Fermin 24 D — HOT 225 0.109 87.6 3.3% 12.5%vs LHP 382 2.3% 0.0% 6.1% 16

6 Xander Bogaerts 24 D +950 WARM 227 0.103 89.2 4.0% 4.8%vs LHP 400 7.7% 0.0% 5.4% 31

7 Jake Cronenworth 20 D — COOL 231 0.076 87.2 2.9% 14.3%vs LHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 5.3% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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