TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.38×

MIL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

6:10p

+8 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +11

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 31 · vs Drohan ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 24 · vs Lowder → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 79

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jj Bleday +425 C ●●●○○

3 Tyler Stephenson +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 71

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +290 C+ ●●○○○

3 Christian Yelich +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 29.2% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Drohan Edge +320 0.219 · 90.1 · 10.2% 33.3% 29.2% F B O C+ 61

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Lowder +330 0.198 · 92.0 · 10.9% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Drohan +425 0.215 · 88.5 · 9.0% 25.0% 12.8% F B O C 52

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Drohan Edge +425 0.174 · 91.2 · 9.8% 20.0% 16.8% F B O C 50

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Lowder Edge +290 0.219 · 92.4 · 11.1% 10.0% 17.8% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Drohan Edge +330 0.203 · 94.0 · 10.5% 8.3% 17.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Drohan Edge +525 0.148 · 88.4 · 8.7% 25.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Drohan Edge +370 0.204 · 88.3 · 9.2% 0.0% 26.2% F B O D 48

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Drohan Edge +525 0.111 · 89.2 · 6.0% 16.7% 8.9% F B O D 38

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Lowder Edge +425 0.149 · 89.0 · 9.6% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Lowder Edge +525 0.167 · 90.1 · 8.2% 8.3% 12.4% F B O D 49

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Lowder +625 0.133 · 88.8 · 6.3% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 42

· MIL William Contreras vs Lowder +400 0.130 · 90.1 · 8.6% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 46

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Lowder Edge +575 0.148 · 92.9 · 10.5% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 49

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Lowder Edge +750 0.090 · 87.0 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Rhett Lowder — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shane Drohan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Stewart Bleday Stephenson Suarez Mclain

Legend

attack side — vs Drohan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +320 · 61

Jackson Chourio +330 · 60

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph out 91°F open

+11

↑

7 mph · out

91°F

6:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

88°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · out

85°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

80°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.38× 91°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 61 C+ +290 COOL 21 0.219 92.4 11.1% 27.9%vs RHP 401 18.6% 10.0% 17.8% 19

2 Jackson Chourio 60 C+ +330 COOL 25 0.198 92.0 10.9% 19.4%vs RHP 399 17.0% 25.0% 23.2% 42

3 Brice Turang 49 D +525 COOL 78 0.167 90.1 8.2% 25.0%vs RHP 407 10.4% 8.3% 12.4% 33

4 Garrett Mitchell 49 D +575 COOL 79 0.148 92.9 10.5% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.3% 0.0% 10.7% 18

5 Christian Yelich 48 D +425 · 87 0.149 89.0 9.6% 18.4%vs RHP 400 8.4% 11.1% 10.2% 32

6 William Contreras 46 D +400 · 103 0.130 90.1 8.6% 13.2%vs RHP 414 9.4% 8.3% 8.4% 42

7 Joey Ortiz 42 D +625 · 125 0.133 88.8 6.3% 14.7%vs RHP 390 7.5% 10.0% 8.7% 34

8 David Hamilton 36 D +750 COOL 185 0.090 87.0 5.6% 5.7%vs RHP 386 4.4% 0.0% 7.5% 28

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 61 C+ +320 · 19 0.219 90.1 10.2% 28.6%vs LHP 397 18.4% 33.3% 29.2% 43

2 Elly De La Cruz 55 C +330 · 39 0.203 94.0 10.5% 36.4%vs LHP 398 15.0% 8.3% 17.3% 35

3 Jj Bleday 52 C +425 COOL 51 0.215 88.5 9.0% 22.7%vs LHP 389 20.0% 25.0% 12.8% 37

4 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +425 · 63 0.174 91.2 9.8% 4.8%vs LHP 392 10.0% 20.0% 16.8% 24

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +370 COOL 81 0.204 88.3 9.2% 25.0%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 21

6 Matt Mclain 45 D +525 COOL 107 0.148 88.4 8.7% 19.1%vs LHP 394 14.3% 25.0% 10.5% 30

7 Dane Myers 38 D +525 COOL 169 0.111 89.2 6.0% 15.4%vs LHP 384 6.7% 16.7% 8.9% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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