TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ NYM

Neutral air · 1.03×

SF @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:10p

-7 ↑

8:10p

-8 ↑

9:10p

-8 ↑

10:10p

-8 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -7

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 39 · vs McLean ⟷ Juan Soto conv 35 · vs Wilkinson → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 77

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Matt Wilkinson LHP · AZ

leak 5

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto +330 C ●●●●●

2 Francisco Lindor +330 D ●●●○○

3 Bo Bichette +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 28.5% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs McLean Edge +330 0.245 · 92.9 · 8.6% 50.0% 28.5% F B O C+ 60

· — Juan Soto vs Wilkinson +330 0.261 · 92.7 · 9.8% 50.0% 19.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Francisco Lindor vs Wilkinson Edge +330 0.193 · 91.1 · 7.7% 25.0% 16.6% F B O D 47

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs McLean Edge +850 0.142 · 86.8 · 5.9% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 36

· — Bo Bichette vs Wilkinson Edge +500 0.129 · 89.6 · 6.4% 18.2% 8.4% F B O D 37

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs McLean Edge +525 0.185 · 92.5 · 8.7% 9.1% 11.5% F B O D 46

· — Carson Benge COOL vs Wilkinson +625 0.142 · 88.7 · 6.9% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 38

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Wilkinson Edge +425 0.161 · 90.1 · 10.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 39

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs McLean Edge — 0.130 · 87.4 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Wilkinson Edge +575 0.130 · 86.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 34

· — Jared Young COOL vs Wilkinson — 0.168 · 89.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 38

· — A.J. Ewing COOL vs Wilkinson +850 0.110 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 31

· — Brett Baty vs Wilkinson — 0.117 · 90.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nolan McLean — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Matt Wilkinson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Gilbert Soto Lindor Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rafael Devers +330 · 60

Juan Soto +330 · 58

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph cross 84°F open

-7

↑

12 mph · cross

84°F

7:10p · peak

-7

↑

11 mph · cross

82°F

8:10p

-8

↑

11 mph · cross

81°F

9:10p

-8

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

10:10p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

78°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 84°F, wind 11 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 60 C+ +330 HOT 26 0.245 92.9 8.6% 28.4%vs RHP 400 21.3% 50.0% 28.5% 39

2 Bryce Eldridge 46 D +525 · 97 0.185 92.5 8.7% 19.2%vs RHP 399 18.3% 9.1% 11.5% 32

3 Drew Gilbert 36 D +850 HOT 183 0.142 86.8 5.9% 16.7%vs RHP 394 6.8% 16.7% 11.9% 29

4 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — WARM 220 0.130 87.4 4.0% 10.3%vs RHP 382 5.5% 0.0% 7.2% 40

vs Matt Wilkinson · LHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 58 C +330 WARM 31 0.261 92.7 9.8% 12.9%vs LHP 400 20.9% 50.0% 19.8% 14

2 Francisco Lindor 47 D +330 · 90 0.193 91.1 7.7% 17.9%vs LHP 394 14.3% 25.0% 16.6% 39

3 Francisco Alvarez 39 D +425 WARM 156 0.161 90.1 10.1% 16.7%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 12

4 Carson Benge 38 D +625 COOL 174 0.142 88.7 6.9% 17.9%vs LHP 396 10.5% 8.3% 7.3% 35

5 Jared Young 38 D — COOL 177 0.168 89.7 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 400 6.5% 0.0% 6.4% 34

6 Bo Bichette 37 D +500 · 180 0.129 89.6 6.4% 17.9%vs LHP 385 9.6% 18.2% 8.4% 35

7 Brett Baty 35 D — WARM 193 0.117 90.0 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 397 6.6% 0.0% 5.0% 17

8 Marcus Semien 34 D +575 COOL 200 0.130 86.4 6.3% 10.3%vs LHP 391 10.5% 0.0% 6.5% 35

9 A.J. Ewing 31 D +850 COOL 215 0.110 89.1 6.7% 11.8%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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