TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.22×

ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 8 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 29 · vs Sale ⟷ Matt Olson conv 12 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 33

0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +575 C ●●●○○

3 Bryson Stott +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 6

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +500 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +700 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 33.0% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Sale +330 0.277 · 92.4 · 9.7% 25.0% 33.0% F B O C+ 66

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Sale +575 0.234 · 90.4 · 7.9% 16.7% 17.4% F B O C 56

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Sánchez +500 0.264 · 92.6 · 10.4% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Sánchez +700 0.176 · 91.9 · 9.6% 8.3% 12.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Sánchez — 0.206 · 90.5 · 8.8% 0.0% 23.5% F B O D 48

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Sánchez Edge +575 0.161 · 87.0 · 5.4% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Sale +950 0.148 · 89.2 · 5.6% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 40

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Sánchez Edge — 0.173 · 90.3 · 9.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 44

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Sale — 0.153 · 89.2 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 42

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Sánchez Edge +625 0.137 · 91.4 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 44

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Sale Edge +625 0.133 · 89.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 35

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.117 · 86.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 33

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Sale Edge +625 0.136 · 90.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Sale Edge +575 0.137 · 88.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Sánchez — 0.124 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 38

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Sale — 0.083 · 87.1 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Sánchez — 0.148 · 90.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Chris Sale — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Sale fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +330 · 66

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 8 mph cross 81°F open

-1

↑

6 mph · in

80°F

6:40p

↑

4 mph · in

77°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · in

76°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

75°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 81°F, wind 8 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 62 C+ +500 COOL 16 0.264 92.6 10.4% 23.3%vs LHP 408 23.4% 8.3% 16.0% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 51 C +700 · 60 0.176 91.9 9.6% 28.0%vs LHP 402 15.8% 8.3% 12.0% 32

3 Michael Harris 48 D — COOL 83 0.206 90.5 8.8% 26.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 36

4 Ronald Acuna 44 D — WARM 108 0.173 90.3 9.4% 20.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 30

5 Austin Riley 44 D +625 COOL 113 0.137 91.4 9.2% 9.1%vs LHP 407 8.7% 0.0% 9.3% 26

6 Ozzie Albies 42 D +575 · 126 0.161 87.0 5.4% 14.3%vs LHP 387 13.6% 8.3% 11.9% 37

7 Mike Yastrzemski 41 D — COOL 143 0.148 90.7 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 389 7.8% 0.0% 6.7% 20

8 Dominic Smith 38 D — COOL 173 0.124 87.7 6.3% 0.0%vs LHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 7.4% 5

9 Mauricio Dubon 33 D — COOL 202 0.117 86.5 5.1% 9.8%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 40

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ +330 COOL 4 0.277 92.4 9.7% 35.3%vs LHP 403 22.3% 25.0% 33.0% 35

2 Bryce Harper 56 C +575 WARM 38 0.234 90.4 7.9% 11.4%vs LHP 402 18.5% 16.7% 17.4% 33

3 Brandon Marsh 42 D — COOL 128 0.153 89.2 6.8% 17.6%vs LHP 391 11.2% 0.0% 10.1% 23

4 Bryson Stott 40 D +950 COOL 149 0.148 89.2 5.6% 11.1%vs LHP 393 7.8% 9.1% 8.9% 32

5 Alec Bohm 39 D +625 · 161 0.136 90.5 5.6% 15.8%vs LHP 397 10.2% 0.0% 8.5% 29

6 Trea Turner 39 D +575 COOL 162 0.137 88.3 5.9% 8.8%vs LHP 392 12.2% 0.0% 7.7% 38

7 J.T. Realmuto 35 D +625 WARM 188 0.133 89.7 5.3% 7.4%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 32

8 Justin Crawford 28 D — COOL 224 0.083 87.1 2.7% 3.2% 382 2.0% 0.0% 6.9% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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