TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.31×

STL @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 11 mph slight_out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:40p

-10 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 18 · vs Feltner ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 55 · vs Pallante → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 88

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +290 C+ ●●●○○

2 Nolan Gorman +425 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 40

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield +850 D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mickey Moniak +350 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 31.3% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Pallante +305 0.285 · 90.4 · 9.3% 25.0% 31.3% F B O C+ 63

· STL Jordan Walker vs Feltner +290 0.217 · 92.5 · 11.8% 16.7% 20.2% F B O C+ 62

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Pallante Edge +350 0.249 · 89.5 · 7.3% 9.1% 16.7% F B O C 52

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Feltner Edge +370 0.184 · 92.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 13.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Pallante Edge +850 0.150 · 84.3 · 5.1% 100.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Feltner Edge +425 0.129 · 89.3 · 10.0% 12.5% 13.3% F B O D 48

· COL Troy Johnston vs Pallante Edge — 0.117 · 89.6 · 3.6% 14.3% 7.7% F B O D 32

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Feltner Edge +700 0.123 · 86.0 · 7.9% 10.0% 8.5% F B O D 43

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Pallante +750 0.123 · 87.5 · 5.9% 10.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Pallante Edge +525 0.155 · 87.6 · 6.6% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 41

· STL José Fermín vs Feltner +850 0.111 · 86.4 · 4.9% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 38

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Pallante Edge +750 0.189 · 85.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 41

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Feltner +500 0.129 · 89.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Feltner — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andre Pallante — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Goodman Rumfield

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +305 · 63

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 11 mph slight_out 87°F open

-7

↑

11 mph · in

84°F

6:40p

-10

↑

12 mph · in

80°F

7:40p

-2

↑

13 mph · cross

77°F

8:40p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:40p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 87°F, wind 11 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 62 C+ +290 · 14 0.217 92.5 11.8% 25.0%vs RHP 406 18.0% 16.7% 20.2% 33

2 Alec Burleson 54 C +370 COOL 43 0.184 92.1 10.5% 21.9%vs RHP 405 14.2% 0.0% 13.0% 35

3 Nolan Gorman 48 D +425 WARM 85 0.129 89.3 10.0% 15.2%vs RHP 405 9.1% 12.5% 13.3% 13

4 Nathan Church 43 D +700 COOL 120 0.123 86.0 7.9% 14.5%vs RHP 386 8.2% 10.0% 8.5% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 40 D +500 COOL 144 0.129 89.3 7.3% 17.0%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 35

6 José Fermín 38 D +850 WARM 171 0.111 86.4 4.9% 6.5%vs RHP 390 5.9% 8.3% 7.7% 41

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 63 C+ +305 COOL 9 0.285 90.4 9.3% 38.6%vs RHP 412 23.7% 25.0% 31.3% 23

2 Mickey Moniak 52 C +350 COOL 53 0.249 89.5 7.3% 22.8%vs RHP 415 16.7% 9.1% 16.7% 33

3 Jake Mccarthy 41 D +750 · 132 0.189 85.3 5.3% 15.9%vs RHP 414 10.5% 0.0% 11.8% 49

4 Willi Castro 41 D +525 COOL 136 0.155 87.6 6.6% 16.9%vs RHP 409 11.0% 8.3% 9.9% 29

5 Tj Rumfield 39 D +850 WARM 165 0.150 84.3 5.1% 13.8%vs RHP 410 10.5% 100.0% 9.1% 33

6 Ezequiel Tovar 36 D +750 WARM 184 0.123 87.5 5.9% 13.3%vs RHP 409 7.6% 10.0% 8.5% 18

7 Troy Johnston 32 D — WARM 210 0.117 89.6 3.6% 4.1%vs RHP 411 2.1% 14.3% 7.7% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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