TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.96×

DET @ CLE

Progressive Field · 2:10p · 30 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

2:10p

+2 ↑

3:10p

+1 ↑

4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

-4 ↑

6:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +2

Best of game Hao-Yu Lee conv 14 · vs Griffin ⟷ Patrick Bailey conv 15 · vs Montero → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 82

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hao-Yu Lee +700 D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +525 C ●○○○○

3 Riley Greene +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 33

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Patrick Bailey +750 D ●●○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Logan Allen LHP · PIT

leak 24

1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hao-Yu Lee +700 D ●●○○○

2 Riley Greene +500 C ●○○○○

3 Dillon Dingler +525 C ●○○○○

FADE Andrew Sears LHP

leak 17

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · stingy — thin edge

1 Patrick Bailey +750 D ●●○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: Match 11.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Griffin Edge +525 0.218 · 88.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.3% F B O C 51

· — Riley Greene COOL vs Allen +500 0.175 · 90.4 · 11.5% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

· — Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Allen Edge +525 0.218 · 88.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.8% F B O C 52

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Allen Edge +525 0.188 · 89.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 11.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 26 long shots

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Montero Edge +750 0.126 · 90.6 · 7.2% 16.7% 12.4% F B O D 39

· — Patrick Bailey vs Sears Edge +750 0.126 · 90.6 · 7.6% 16.7% 11.5% F B O D 40

· — Hao-Yu Lee vs Griffin Edge +700 0.154 · 89.7 · 9.0% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 46

· — Hao-Yu Lee vs Allen Edge +700 0.154 · 89.7 · 9.1% 16.7% 9.6% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Montero Edge — 0.191 · 87.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 19.4% F B O D 41

· — Angel Martinez vs Sears Edge — 0.191 · 87.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 18.1% F B O D 42

· — Riley Greene COOL vs Griffin +500 0.175 · 90.4 · 11.4% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 49

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Griffin Edge +525 0.188 · 89.3 · 10.5% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 49

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Montero Edge +500 0.162 · 91.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 38

· — Colt Keith vs Allen — 0.144 · 89.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 40

· — Colt Keith vs Griffin — 0.144 · 89.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

· — Chase Delauter COOL vs Sears +500 0.162 · 91.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· — Jose Ramirez COOL vs Sears Edge +475 0.145 · 89.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Allen +575 0.137 · 88.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 40

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Griffin +575 0.137 · 88.1 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· — Gleyber Torres vs Griffin Edge +750 0.120 · 86.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Montero Edge +475 0.145 · 89.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Montero Edge +700 0.126 · 87.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Montero Edge +850 0.114 · 86.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· — Gleyber Torres vs Allen Edge +750 0.120 · 86.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 38

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Allen — 0.098 · 85.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Griffin — 0.098 · 85.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· — Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Sears Edge +850 0.114 · 86.7 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 32

· — Travis Bazzana COOL vs Sears +700 0.126 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Montero Edge — 0.059 · 83.8 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 21

· — Steven Kwan vs Sears — 0.059 · 83.8 · 2.0% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Keider Montero — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Logan Allen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Foster Griffin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Sears — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bailey Dingler Lee Dingler Lee Bailey

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph cross 77°F open

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

2:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

74°F

3:10p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

72°F

5:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

6:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 77°F, wind 3 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 41 D — WARM 131 0.191 87.7 7.4% 20.9%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 22

2 Patrick Bailey 39 D +750 WARM 158 0.126 90.6 7.2% 15.0%vs RHP 409 7.4% 16.7% 12.4% 14

3 Chase Delauter 38 D +500 COOL 166 0.162 91.4 6.8% 20.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 28

4 Travis Bazzana 34 D +700 COOL 198 0.126 87.7 5.7% 14.3%vs RHP 396 8.6% 0.0% 7.2% 28

5 Jose Ramirez 33 D +475 COOL 201 0.145 89.3 5.7% 9.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 38

6 Brayan Rocchio 31 D +850 COOL 218 0.114 86.7 4.7% 10.6%vs RHP 384 6.9% 0.0% 6.9% 28

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — WARM 228 0.059 83.8 1.9% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.0% 48

vs Logan Allen · LHP 1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 52 C +525 COOL 55 0.218 88.5 9.8% 13.8%vs LHP 398 18.1% 0.0% 11.8% 26

2 Riley Greene 50 C +500 COOL 68 0.175 90.4 11.5% 9.5%vs LHP 399 11.9% 0.0% 13.1% 5

3 Spencer Torkelson 50 C +525 COOL 72 0.188 89.3 10.7% 9.7%vs LHP 393 13.6% 0.0% 11.3% 17

4 Hao-Yu Lee 46 D +700 WARM 99 0.154 89.7 9.1% 7.7%vs LHP 399 17.6% 16.7% 9.6% 32

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D +575 WARM 146 0.137 88.1 8.1% 7.0%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.9% 43

6 Colt Keith 40 D — WARM 150 0.144 89.0 8.3% 9.7% 385 6.4% 0.0% 8.7% 15

7 Gleyber Torres 38 D +750 · 176 0.120 86.5 7.9% 10.0%vs LHP 393 8.8% 0.0% 6.7% 31

8 Zach Mckinstry 30 D — COOL 221 0.098 85.6 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 23

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 51 C +525 COOL 58 0.218 88.5 9.7% 13.8%vs LHP 398 18.1% 0.0% 13.3% 26

2 Riley Greene 49 D +500 COOL 75 0.175 90.4 11.4% 9.5%vs LHP 399 11.9% 0.0% 13.0% 5

3 Spencer Torkelson 49 D +525 COOL 76 0.188 89.3 10.5% 9.7%vs LHP 393 13.6% 0.0% 12.8% 17

4 Hao-Yu Lee 46 D +700 WARM 98 0.154 89.7 9.0% 7.7%vs LHP 399 17.6% 16.7% 10.8% 32

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D +575 WARM 151 0.137 88.1 8.0% 7.0%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.8% 43

6 Colt Keith 40 D — WARM 153 0.144 89.0 8.2% 9.7% 385 6.4% 0.0% 8.6% 15

7 Gleyber Torres 37 D +750 · 181 0.120 86.5 7.8% 10.0%vs LHP 393 8.8% 0.0% 7.6% 31

8 Zach Mckinstry 29 D — COOL 222 0.098 85.6 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 23

vs Andrew Sears · LHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 42 D — WARM 121 0.191 87.7 7.8% 18.2%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 22

2 Patrick Bailey 40 D +750 WARM 147 0.126 90.6 7.6% 12.5%vs LHP 409 7.4% 16.7% 11.5% 14

3 Chase Delauter 39 D +500 COOL 157 0.162 91.4 7.1% 12.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 28

4 Travis Bazzana 35 D +700 COOL 192 0.126 87.7 6.0% 4.3%vs LHP 396 8.6% 0.0% 6.0% 28

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +475 COOL 194 0.145 89.3 6.0% 17.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 38

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D +850 COOL 214 0.114 86.7 4.9% 8.6%vs LHP 384 6.9% 0.0% 6.4% 28

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — WARM 229 0.059 83.8 2.0% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 5.5% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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