TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ BAL

Playable air · 1.10×

BOS @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 4 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

+5 ↑

9:05p

+3 ↑

10:05p

-1 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +6

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 15 · vs Baz ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 27 · vs Suarez → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 16

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +500 D ●●○○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +305 C ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela — D ●○○○○

FADE Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 11

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +350 C ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo +400 C ●●●○○

3 Colton Cowser — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 23.0% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Suarez Edge +350 0.233 · 94.2 · 8.6% 30.8% 23.0% F B O C 57

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Suarez Edge +400 0.223 · 91.7 · 8.3% 16.7% 25.1% F B O C 52

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Baz Edge +305 0.209 · 89.8 · 9.0% 14.3% 11.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Suarez — 0.151 · 88.0 · 7.6% 20.0% 14.8% F B O D 43

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Baz Edge +500 0.156 · 90.0 · 7.9% 18.2% 12.1% F B O D 44

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Suarez +625 0.179 · 89.6 · 6.2% 7.7% 14.4% F B O D 43

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Suarez +850 0.123 · 87.0 · 6.0% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 34

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Suarez Edge +850 0.132 · 88.3 · 4.8% 8.3% 6.3% F B O D 33

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Suarez — 0.195 · 90.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 45

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Baz — 0.161 · 86.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Baz +750 0.133 · 83.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Baz — 0.150 · 87.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shane Baz — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ranger Suarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abreu Duran Alonso Mayo Cowser

Legend

attack side — vs Baz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +350 · 57

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 4 mph in 81°F open

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

7:05p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

80°F

8:05p

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:05p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 81°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.63 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 50 C +305 COOL 70 0.209 89.8 9.0% 15.7%vs RHP 406 16.1% 14.3% 11.8% 40

2 Jarren Duran 44 D +500 WARM 109 0.156 90.0 7.9% 28.3%vs RHP 400 13.8% 18.2% 12.1% 34

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 38 D — COOL 170 0.161 86.3 5.8% 14.1%vs RHP 382 11.9% 0.0% 8.8% 43

4 Andruw Monasterio 38 D — COOL 175 0.150 87.9 6.7% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 6.8% 27

5 Caleb Durbin 32 D +750 COOL 209 0.133 83.5 4.1% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.3% 0.0% 7.8% 37

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 57 C +350 · 36 0.233 94.2 8.6% 20.5%vs LHP 402 21.4% 30.8% 23.0% 36

2 Coby Mayo 52 C +400 COOL 52 0.223 91.7 8.3% 42.9%vs LHP 411 16.8% 16.7% 25.1% 26

3 Samuel Basallo 45 D — COOL 104 0.195 90.4 8.3% 20.0%vs LHP 399 14.3% 0.0% 13.2% 24

4 Colton Cowser 43 D — WARM 116 0.151 88.0 7.6% 14.3%vs LHP 412 16.0% 20.0% 14.8% 26

5 Gunnar Henderson 43 D +625 COOL 117 0.179 89.6 6.2% 33.3%vs LHP 393 14.5% 7.7% 14.4% 39

6 Jackson Holliday 34 D +850 · 196 0.123 87.0 6.0% 8.3%vs LHP 389 4.9% 9.1% 7.5% 42

7 Leody Taveras 33 D +850 · 205 0.132 88.3 4.8% 6.7%vs LHP 403 5.0% 8.3% 6.3% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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