TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.45×

TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 95°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

+8 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+7 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +8

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Williams ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 35 · vs Martinez → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Trevor Williams RHP

leak 86

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +280 C+ ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +500 D ●●○○○

3 Richie Palacios +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 43

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +700 D ●●●○○

3 Jake Burger +390 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 29.7% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Martinez Edge +330 0.244 · 92.3 · 8.9% 40.0% 29.7% F B O C+ 61

· — Junior Caminero COOL vs Williams +280 0.247 · 92.9 · 10.1% 15.4% 21.6% F B O C+ 62

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Martinez +390 0.186 · 90.1 · 9.1% 16.7% 16.5% F B O C 52

· TEX Corey Seager vs Martinez Edge +320 0.189 · 91.9 · 10.1% 7.7% 12.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Martinez +700 0.178 · 88.9 · 6.7% 23.1% 18.6% F B O D 48

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Williams Edge +500 0.140 · 91.2 · 8.8% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 46

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Martinez +425 0.197 · 89.2 · 6.8% 7.7% 13.3% F B O D 48

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Williams Edge +850 0.114 · 86.2 · 5.1% 12.5% 6.0% F B O D 36

· — Cedric Mullins HOT vs Williams Edge +575 0.145 · 87.9 · 5.9% 11.1% 7.1% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Martinez Edge +425 0.157 · 92.3 · 8.5% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 46

· — Yandy Diaz vs Williams +525 0.165 · 90.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 42

· — Jonny Deluca COOL vs Williams — 0.162 · 85.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 40

· — Nick Fortes COOL vs Williams — 0.100 · 85.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 33

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.039 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 20

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Martinez Edge +700 0.127 · 87.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 38

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Williams Edge +950 0.076 · 85.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 29

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.052 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Trevor Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Duran Caminero Aranda

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +330 · 61

Ezequiel Duran +700 · 48

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 95°F retractable

↑

4 mph · out

97°F

7:05p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

94°F

8:05p

↑

5 mph · out

91°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · out

88°F

10:05p

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.45× 95°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ +330 · 18 0.244 92.3 8.9% 29.5%vs RHP 395 22.6% 40.0% 29.7% 17

2 Jake Burger 52 C +390 HOT 54 0.186 90.1 9.1% 20.9%vs RHP 401 15.9% 16.7% 16.5% 30

3 Corey Seager 52 C +320 WARM 56 0.189 91.9 10.1% 21.3%vs RHP 394 16.0% 7.7% 12.5% 39

4 Ezequiel Duran 48 D +700 · 82 0.178 88.9 6.7% 20.7%vs RHP 396 13.3% 23.1% 18.6% 38

5 Wyatt Langford 48 D +425 COOL 84 0.197 89.2 6.8% 23.4%vs RHP 396 14.9% 7.7% 13.3% 39

6 Brandon Nimmo 46 D +425 · 100 0.157 92.3 8.5% 12.0%vs RHP 404 10.0% 7.7% 9.2% 38

7 Evan Carter 38 D +700 COOL 172 0.127 87.9 6.1% 11.3%vs RHP 374 6.8% 0.0% 7.6% 24

8 Nicky Lopez 20 D — COOL 230 0.039 84.2 — 4.8%vs RHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 8.5% 6

vs Trevor Williams · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 62 C+ +280 COOL 13 0.247 92.9 10.1% 39.7%vs RHP 414 24.8% 15.4% 21.6% 42

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D +500 · 102 0.140 91.2 8.8% 16.1%vs RHP 390 11.5% 18.2% 8.9% 31

3 Yandy Diaz 42 D +525 · 122 0.165 90.9 7.6% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 45

4 Cedric Mullins 41 D +575 HOT 142 0.145 87.9 5.9% 16.9%vs RHP 387 11.8% 11.1% 7.1% 26

5 Jonny Deluca 40 D — COOL 145 0.162 85.7 5.3% 24.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 37

6 Richie Palacios 36 D +850 COOL 187 0.114 86.2 5.1% 11.4%vs RHP 393 5.1% 12.5% 6.0% 26

7 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 203 0.100 85.0 4.1% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 9.0% 10

8 Taylor Walls 29 D +950 COOL 223 0.076 85.6 3.9% 2.3%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 5.1% 27

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 233 0.052 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.