TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.35×

TOR @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+9 ↑

9:10p

+8 ↑

10:10p

+7 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +9

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 36 · vs Taillon ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 20 · vs IV → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Jameson Taillon RHP · CHC

leak 95

2.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.90 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nick Loftin +850 D ●●●○○

3 Vinnie Pasquantino +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 46

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +350 C ●●●○○

2 George Springer +500 D ●●●○○

3 Nathan Lukes +1000 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 27.1% · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Carter Jensen ✶ HOT vs Taillon Edge +390 0.211 · 91.3 · 12.3% 45.5% 27.1% F B O C+ 68

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs IV Edge +350 0.213 · 90.5 · 9.5% 18.2% 21.7% F B O C 56

· — Vinnie Pasquantino vs Taillon Edge +400 0.134 · 89.6 · 9.9% 18.2% 10.5% F B O C 50

· — Jac Caglianone vs Taillon Edge +350 0.213 · 93.2 · 13.7% 10.0% 18.6% F B O C+ 64

· — Salvador Perez vs Taillon +390 0.153 · 88.7 · 11.6% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 50

· — Bobby Witt vs Taillon — 0.164 · 92.3 · 12.4% 0.0% 12.5% F B O C 54

· — Michael Massey vs Taillon Edge +700 0.166 · 89.6 · 9.2% 0.0% 11.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs IV Edge +500 0.166 · 88.4 · 6.9% 22.2% 13.1% F B O D 45

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs IV +1000 0.126 · 86.8 · 4.0% 22.2% 13.1% F B O D 38

· — Nick Loftin vs Taillon +850 0.152 · 87.1 · 7.5% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 49

· — Isaac Collins COOL vs Taillon Edge +750 0.118 · 88.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 44

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs IV Edge +950 0.111 · 84.2 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs IV Edge — 0.100 · 90.2 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· TOR Myles Straw vs IV Edge — 0.116 · 85.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs IV +950 0.112 · 85.7 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 31

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs IV — 0.160 · 90.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Lynch IV — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jameson Taillon — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Jensen Caglianone Pasquantino Loftin

Legend

attack side — vs Taillon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +390 · 68

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph out 93°F open

↑

6 mph · out

94°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

91°F

8:10p

↑

6 mph · out

88°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 93°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +350 WARM 37 0.213 90.5 9.5% 22.9%vs LHP 400 17.9% 18.2% 21.7% 27

2 George Springer 45 D +500 WARM 105 0.166 88.4 6.9% 11.5%vs LHP 395 11.3% 22.2% 13.1% 30

3 Jesús Sánchez 44 D — · 112 0.160 90.8 8.7% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.5% 0.0% 6.8% 13

4 Nathan Lukes 38 D +1000 WARM 167 0.126 86.8 4.0% 20.0%vs LHP 382 8.3% 22.2% 13.1% 32

5 Vladimir Guerrero 34 D — · 197 0.100 90.2 6.8% 8.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 42

6 Myles Straw 33 D — WARM 204 0.116 85.9 4.7% 5.4%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 25

7 Ernie Clement 32 D +950 COOL 212 0.111 84.2 3.8% 9.3%vs LHP 376 6.9% 0.0% 7.4% 38

8 Andres Gimenez 31 D +950 WARM 216 0.112 85.7 4.8% 12.5%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 18

vs Jameson Taillon · RHP 2.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.90 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 68 C+ +390 HOT 2 0.211 91.3 12.3% 18.2%vs RHP 397 17.0% 45.5% 27.1% 33

2 Jac Caglianone 64 C+ +350 · 5 0.213 93.2 13.7% 30.8%vs RHP 416 14.6% 10.0% 18.6% 30

3 Bobby Witt 54 C — · 44 0.164 92.3 12.4% 16.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 40

4 Salvador Perez 50 C +390 WARM 64 0.153 88.7 11.6% 16.7%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 38

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 50 C +400 WARM 65 0.134 89.6 9.9% 13.8%vs RHP 398 9.9% 18.2% 10.5% 37

6 Michael Massey 50 C +700 · 71 0.166 89.6 9.2% 10.1%vs RHP 399 7.5% 0.0% 11.3% 17

7 Nick Loftin 49 D +850 · 74 0.152 87.1 7.5% 10.6%vs RHP 397 9.6% 20.0% 14.0% 31

8 Isaac Collins 44 D +750 COOL 111 0.118 88.6 8.5% 7.8%vs RHP 394 5.2% 0.0% 8.6% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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