TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.74×

CHC @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 10 mph in 83°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-13 ↑

7:10p

-13 ↑

8:10p

-14 ↑

9:10p

-14 ↑

10:10p

-14 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -13

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 22 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 31 · vs Junk → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 96

1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +400 C ●●●○○

2 Jakob Marsee +950 D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 69

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +625 D ●●●●○

3 Ian Happ +475 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Junk Edge +305 0.291 · 90.2 · 9.7% 38.5% 24.1% F B O C+ 61

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Imanaga +400 0.224 · 92.4 · 11.0% 25.0% 19.8% F B O C 53

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Imanaga Edge +390 0.240 · 91.4 · 11.6% 0.0% 29.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Junk +625 0.185 · 88.1 · 6.4% 38.5% 16.9% F B O D 43

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Junk Edge +475 0.197 · 89.2 · 9.1% 33.3% 19.1% F B O D 49

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Junk +700 0.130 · 87.2 · 6.4% 30.0% 10.8% F B O D 35

· MIA Jakob Marsee HOT vs Imanaga +950 0.119 · 87.3 · 5.9% 20.0% 10.3% F B O D 34

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Junk +475 0.213 · 88.4 · 8.7% 15.4% 12.1% F B O D 46

· CHC Michael Busch vs Junk Edge +475 0.150 · 88.3 · 8.1% 15.4% 9.6% F B O D 39

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Imanaga Edge +950 0.141 · 86.8 · 4.4% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 32

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Imanaga Edge +750 0.138 · 89.1 · 7.8% 7.7% 7.1% F B O D 36

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Junk — 0.097 · 85.9 · 3.2% 7.7% 6.1% F B O D 24

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Imanaga — 0.192 · 91.0 · 11.5% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Janson Junk — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shota Imanaga — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Kelly Stowers Hernández Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 · 61

Kyle Stowers +400 · 53

Ian Happ +475 · 49

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 10 mph in 83°F retractable

-13

↑

9 mph · in

80°F

7:10p · peak

-13

↑

9 mph · in

79°F

8:10p

-14

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

9:10p

-14

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

10:10p

-14

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.74× 83°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 61 C+ +305 · 24 0.291 90.2 9.7% 26.5%vs RHP 397 22.7% 38.5% 24.1% 44

2 Ian Happ 49 D +475 COOL 73 0.197 89.2 9.1% 24.7%vs RHP 402 17.8% 33.3% 19.1% 27

3 Seiya Suzuki 46 D +475 · 96 0.213 88.4 8.7% 21.6%vs RHP 406 16.9% 15.4% 12.1% 41

4 Alex Bregman 43 D +625 WARM 115 0.185 88.1 6.4% 17.8%vs RHP 390 13.0% 38.5% 16.9% 48

5 Michael Busch 39 D +475 WARM 160 0.150 88.3 8.1% 12.2%vs RHP 401 12.8% 15.4% 9.6% 31

6 Carson Kelly 35 D +700 · 189 0.130 87.2 6.4% 10.3%vs RHP 403 8.9% 30.0% 10.8% 32

7 Nico Hoerner 24 D — WARM 226 0.097 85.9 3.2% 6.9%vs RHP 383 5.8% 7.7% 6.1% 46

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 53 C +400 HOT 47 0.224 92.4 11.0% 7.7%vs LHP 398 14.4% 25.0% 19.8% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 50 C +390 WARM 62 0.240 91.4 11.6% 40.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 29.0% 36

3 Owen Caissie 47 D — COOL 91 0.192 91.0 11.5% 21.3% 398 13.6% 0.0% 12.2% 13

4 Otto Lopez 36 D +750 · 186 0.138 89.1 7.8% 10.0%vs LHP 402 6.6% 7.7% 7.1% 45

5 Jakob Marsee 34 D +950 HOT 195 0.119 87.3 5.9% 10.0%vs LHP 382 8.1% 20.0% 10.3% 28

6 Javier Sanoja 32 D +950 COOL 208 0.141 86.8 4.4% 15.8%vs LHP 380 7.3% 8.3% 7.9% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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