TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.94×

LAA @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:45p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:45p

+1 ↑

7:45p

+0 ↑

8:45p

-1 ↑

9:45p

-2 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +2

Best of game Zach Neto conv 17 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 23 · vs Johnson → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 86

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +500 C ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout +425 D ●○○○○

FADE Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 86

2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Oneil Cruz +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jared Triolo +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: Match 25.3% · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Johnson Edge +400 0.228 · 91.1 · 11.0% 20.0% 26.2% F B O C+ 61

· PIT Oneil Cruz ✶ COOL vs Johnson Edge +330 0.213 · 95.3 · 13.2% 18.2% 25.3% F B O C+ 63

· LAA Zach Neto vs Jones +500 0.195 · 89.6 · 9.6% 18.2% 16.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Jones +750 0.146 · 88.0 · 7.7% 16.7% 14.6% F B O D 41

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Johnson +950 0.071 · 86.6 · 5.1% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 32

· LAA Mike Trout vs Jones +425 0.183 · 89.9 · 11.2% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 48

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Johnson Edge +500 0.156 · 90.8 · 10.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 47

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Jones Edge +625 0.141 · 88.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Johnson Edge +625 0.129 · 86.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Johnson +950 0.087 · 86.1 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.084 · 85.6 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Jones +850 0.117 · 87.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jared Jones — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +400 · 61

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph out 74°F open

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

6:45p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

77°F

7:45p

↑

2 mph · out

75°F

8:45p

-1

↑

2 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:45p

-2

↑

2 mph · cross

72°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 74°F, wind 4 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 50 C +500 WARM 67 0.195 89.6 9.6% 19.1%vs RHP 404 15.9% 18.2% 16.0% 32

2 Mike Trout 48 D +425 · 86 0.183 89.9 11.2% 21.1%vs RHP 409 13.6% 0.0% 12.1% 33

3 Vaughn Grissom 41 D +750 WARM 135 0.146 88.0 7.7% 18.6%vs RHP 391 9.6% 16.7% 14.6% 39

4 Josh Lowe 38 D +625 COOL 168 0.141 88.6 7.8% 17.5%vs RHP 392 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% 19

5 Oswald Peraza 34 D +850 COOL 199 0.117 87.1 7.2% 8.0%vs RHP 386 5.0% 0.0% 7.2% 12

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 63 C+ +330 COOL 10 0.213 95.3 13.2% 39.4%vs RHP 413 23.2% 18.2% 25.3% 27

2 Brandon Lowe 61 C+ +400 COOL 20 0.228 91.1 11.0% 27.4%vs RHP 390 17.5% 20.0% 26.2% 25

3 Bryan Reynolds 47 D +500 · 89 0.156 90.8 10.5% 15.0%vs RHP 409 10.2% 0.0% 9.6% 40

4 Spencer Horwitz 41 D +625 COOL 141 0.129 86.9 8.1% 13.9%vs RHP 395 9.0% 0.0% 7.9% 34

5 Nick Gonzales 32 D +950 · 211 0.087 86.1 5.2% 9.8%vs RHP 397 6.2% 0.0% 7.5% 36

6 Jared Triolo 32 D +950 COOL 213 0.071 86.6 5.1% 8.3%vs RHP 409 2.5% 9.1% 7.3% 32

7 Jake Mangum 31 D — COOL 217 0.084 85.6 4.5% 10.0%vs RHP 393 4.3% 0.0% 7.5% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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