TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.71×

AZ @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 10 mph out 90°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:10p

+14 ↑

8:10p

+13 ↑

9:10p

+12 ↑

10:10p

+12 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 8:10p at +14

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 27 · vs Kelly ⟷ Tim Tawa conv 16 · vs Javier → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 90

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz — C ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 8

1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tim Tawa +500 C ●●○○○

2 Nolan Arenado +475 C ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +350 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 21.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Kelly +500 0.191 · 88.4 · 8.8% 25.0% 28.5% F B O C+ 62

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Kelly — 0.156 · 88.1 · 7.9% 12.5% 22.2% F B O C 54

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Javier +500 0.154 · 91.0 · 9.2% 15.4% 16.7% F B O C 54

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Kelly +500 0.164 · 86.0 · 7.5% 15.4% 13.1% F B O C 54

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Kelly +400 0.198 · 89.2 · 10.2% 8.3% 16.7% F B O C+ 62

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Javier +475 0.188 · 84.8 · 7.2% 7.7% 15.8% F B O C 53

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Javier Edge +350 0.229 · 91.7 · 9.8% 7.7% 14.4% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Kelly Edge +235 0.286 · 94.5 · 13.9% 0.0% 21.4% F B O B 71

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Javier +525 0.161 · 89.3 · 8.0% 8.3% 11.9% F B O C 51

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Javier Edge +390 0.193 · 90.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 14.7% F B O C 57

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Kelly +625 0.173 · 89.1 · 11.2% 0.0% 13.8% F B O C 59

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Kelly Edge +500 0.156 · 88.5 · 12.0% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Javier +700 0.115 · 87.1 · 7.2% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 45

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Kelly +575 0.152 · 85.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Kelly +850 0.122 · 86.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Javier Edge +750 0.116 · 87.5 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 40

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Javier Edge +850 0.132 · 87.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cristian Javier — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Merrill Kelly — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Tawa Alvarez Peña Diaz Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jeremy Peña +500 · 62

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.14× Wind 10 mph out 90°F retractable

+13

↑

10 mph · out

85°F

7:10p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

8:10p · peak

+13

↑

8 mph · out

83°F

9:10p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

10:10p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.71× 90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 61 C+ +350 · 23 0.229 91.7 9.8% 16.9%vs RHP 402 13.2% 7.7% 14.4% 37

2 Ketel Marte 57 C +390 COOL 34 0.193 90.1 9.1% 14.6%vs RHP 409 15.0% 0.0% 14.7% 6

3 Tim Tawa 54 C +500 · 45 0.154 91.0 9.2% 23.7%vs RHP 398 9.3% 15.4% 16.7% 32

4 Nolan Arenado 53 C +475 COOL 48 0.188 84.8 7.2% 22.1%vs RHP 389 14.6% 7.7% 15.8% 38

5 Gabriel Moreno 51 C +525 WARM 61 0.161 89.3 8.0% 12.3%vs RHP 401 9.7% 8.3% 11.9% 36

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 45 D +700 COOL 106 0.115 87.1 7.2% 10.0%vs RHP 415 4.1% 8.3% 9.4% 21

7 Ildemaro Vargas 42 D +850 COOL 130 0.132 87.5 5.1% 6.7%vs RHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 7.1% 44

8 Geraldo Perdomo 40 D +750 COOL 152 0.116 87.5 4.8% 10.0%vs RHP 383 6.4% 0.0% 7.5% 41

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 71 B +235 COOL 1 0.286 94.5 13.9% 25.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 32

2 Jeremy Peña 62 C+ +500 WARM 12 0.191 88.4 8.8% 29.4%vs RHP 387 16.2% 25.0% 28.5% 32

3 Christian Walker 62 C+ +400 COOL 15 0.198 89.2 10.2% 24.7%vs RHP 391 16.9% 8.3% 16.7% 38

4 Cam Smith 59 C +625 COOL 30 0.173 89.1 11.2% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.3% 0.0% 13.8% 25

5 Taylor Trammell 57 C +500 · 35 0.156 88.5 12.0% 20.0%vs RHP 413 12.2% 0.0% 12.8% 22

6 Yainer Diaz 54 C — HOT 40 0.156 88.1 7.9% 29.0%vs RHP 392 10.2% 12.5% 22.2% 25

7 Isaac Paredes 54 C +500 COOL 42 0.164 86.0 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 375 11.9% 15.4% 13.1% 39

8 Jose Altuve 47 D +575 WARM 88 0.152 85.4 7.4% 20.4%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 35

9 Christian Vazquez 42 D +850 WARM 124 0.122 86.0 5.1% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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