TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.26×

WSH @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +8

Best of game Max Muncy conv 21 · vs Kent ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 22 · vs Snell → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Jackson Kent LHP · WSH

leak 13

0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●○○

2 Tommy Edman +475 D ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts +430 D ●○○○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile — D ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●●○○

3 James Wood +430 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 15.7% · 14D pace 26.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Kent — 0.240 · 90.5 · 10.0% 26.7% 15.7% F B O C+ 61

· WSH James Wood vs Snell +430 0.266 · 95.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 19.6% F B O C 59

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Kent +270 0.246 · 93.2 · 10.8% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Kent — 0.218 · 89.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Snell — 0.184 · 88.7 · 6.2% 30.8% 12.7% F B O D 46

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Snell — 0.166 · 88.3 · 4.5% 28.6% 14.8% F B O D 41

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Kent Edge +475 0.132 · 88.0 · 6.7% 9.1% 11.1% F B O D 42

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Kent Edge +430 0.174 · 90.0 · 7.2% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 47

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Kent +475 0.161 · 89.7 · 7.9% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 46

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Snell +575 0.234 · 89.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 49

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Kent Edge +410 0.147 · 90.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 42

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Snell Edge +600 0.140 · 90.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 39

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Kent — 0.126 · 88.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 39

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Snell Edge +1000 0.145 · 87.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Snell Edge — 0.035 · 85.1 · 2.0% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Blake Snell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Kent — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lile Ruiz Muncy

Legend

attack side — vs Kent fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph out 74°F open

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

68°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

67°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 74°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 59 C +430 WARM 29 0.266 95.2 9.5% 40.9%vs LHP 413 25.8% 0.0% 19.6% 3

2 Cj Abrams 49 D +575 COOL 77 0.234 89.5 6.5% 22.2%vs LHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 12.5% 22

3 Daylen Lile 46 D — WARM 94 0.184 88.7 6.2% 4.0%vs LHP 400 12.1% 30.8% 12.7% 40

4 Keibert Ruiz 41 D — COOL 134 0.166 88.3 4.5% 21.4%vs LHP 377 10.4% 28.6% 14.8% 24

5 Dylan Crews 39 D +600 COOL 163 0.140 90.3 6.3% 20.0%vs LHP 407 13.5% 0.0% 7.3% 34

6 Jacob Young 35 D +1000 COOL 191 0.145 87.7 5.1% 10.0%vs LHP 399 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% 28

7 Nasim Nunez 19 D — WARM 232 0.035 85.1 2.0% 5.3%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 30

vs Jackson Kent · LHP 0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 17 0.240 90.5 10.0% 25.0%vs LHP 411 20.9% 26.7% 15.7% 47

2 Shohei Ohtani 61 C+ +270 COOL 22 0.246 93.2 10.8% 30.8%vs LHP 407 18.5% 0.0% 17.0% 25

3 Dalton Rushing 51 C — · 57 0.218 89.6 9.5% 8.3%vs LHP 400 9.4% 0.0% 14.3% 0

4 Mookie Betts 47 D +430 COOL 92 0.174 90.0 7.2% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.3% 8.3% 10.7% 41

5 Freddie Freeman 46 D +475 COOL 101 0.161 89.7 7.9% 12.9%vs LHP 399 10.3% 8.3% 9.1% 34

6 Teoscar Hernandez 42 D +410 WARM 123 0.147 90.0 8.5% 20.0%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 28

7 Tommy Edman 42 D +475 · 127 0.132 88.0 6.7% 37.5%vs LHP 398 7.7% 9.1% 11.1% 37

8 Kyle Tucker 39 D — COOL 164 0.126 88.6 6.3% 6.1%vs LHP 392 6.9% 0.0% 6.6% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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