TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.03×

ATH @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 10:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 5 mph cross 64°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:10p

-5 ↑

8:10p

-4 ↑

9:10p

-4 ↑

10:10p

-3 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 33 · vs Morris ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 17 · vs Gilbert → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Kade Morris RHP

leak 97

2.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh — C+ ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 84

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C ●●●○○

2 Jonah Heim — D ●●○○○

3 Lawrence Butler — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 24.3% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Morris Edge — 0.185 · 89.7 · 9.7% 41.7% 24.3% F B O C+ 60

· — Randy Arozarena vs Morris — 0.194 · 90.7 · 7.1% 30.8% 26.8% F B O C 57

· — Dominic Canzone vs Morris Edge — 0.229 · 91.1 · 8.9% 16.7% 23.7% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Gilbert — 0.204 · 88.9 · 9.0% 16.7% 18.3% F B O C 53

· — Julio Rodríguez vs Morris — 0.157 · 90.0 · 7.7% 7.7% 12.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Gilbert Edge — 0.182 · 87.9 · 8.1% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 46

· — Cole Young COOL vs Morris Edge — 0.135 · 88.2 · 5.5% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 43

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Gilbert Edge — 0.137 · 89.6 · 8.6% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 42

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Gilbert — 0.113 · 90.8 · 8.4% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 41

· — J.P. Crawford COOL vs Morris Edge — 0.126 · 87.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 39

· — Josh Naylor COOL vs Morris Edge — 0.095 · 87.2 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Gilbert Edge — 0.101 · 86.5 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Gilbert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kade Morris — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Heim Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Morris fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cal Raleigh — · 60

Randy Arozarena — · 57

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 5 mph cross 64°F retractable

-4

↑

6 mph · in

64°F

7:10p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

63°F

8:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

62°F

9:10p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

60°F

10:10p

-3

↑

3 mph · in

59°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 64°F, wind 5 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 53 C — WARM 50 0.204 88.9 9.0% 24.4%vs RHP 398 20.4% 16.7% 18.3% 34

2 Jonah Heim 46 D — · 95 0.182 87.9 8.1% 7.9%vs RHP 409 9.8% 16.7% 12.7% 34

3 Lawrence Butler 42 D — WARM 129 0.137 89.6 8.6% 18.2%vs RHP 410 8.3% 7.7% 9.3% 29

4 Henry Bolte 41 D — · 140 0.113 90.8 8.4% 4.3%vs RHP 401 10.0% 7.7% 8.3% 36

5 Jeff Mcneil 32 D — · 207 0.101 86.5 4.4% 10.3%vs RHP 382 4.7% 0.0% 8.0% 47

vs Kade Morris · RHP 2.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 60 C+ — HOT 27 0.185 89.7 9.7% 16.9%vs RHP 384 15.9% 41.7% 24.3% 29

2 Dominic Canzone 60 C+ — · 28 0.229 91.1 8.9% 23.9%vs RHP 404 15.7% 16.7% 23.7% 33

3 Randy Arozarena 57 C — WARM 32 0.194 90.7 7.1% 24.1%vs RHP 386 15.5% 30.8% 26.8% 36

4 Julio Rodríguez 50 C — · 69 0.157 90.0 7.7% 18.8%vs RHP 404 15.3% 7.7% 12.1% 34

5 Cole Young 43 D — COOL 119 0.135 88.2 5.5% 18.1%vs RHP 383 11.2% 8.3% 10.7% 34

6 J.P. Crawford 39 D — COOL 154 0.126 87.9 6.2% 23.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 19

7 Josh Naylor 37 D — COOL 179 0.095 87.2 5.4% 11.3%vs RHP 392 6.0% 0.0% 9.4% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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