0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
15.6%
Overall HR/FB
4.73
FIP
6.01
xFIP
#34
Leakiest SP today (of 34, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
72
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 72th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 62.1%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 7 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (62.1% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
62.1%
83.5
35.2°
1
-0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB15.6% 72
HR/9—
FIP4.73 75
xFIP6.01
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-29
Fastball
Hard · 62.1% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle35.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches54
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Matt Wilkinson.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Oracle Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.889
Wind
11 mph from WSW
Temp
67°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:05p
14
66°
+10
2:05p
14
63°
+10
3:05p
12
61°
+8
4:05p
11
59°
+6
5:05p
10
57°
+5
+8
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 12 mph from W
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
339ft
deep
CF
399ft
avg
RF
309ft
short
vs LHH → RF
359ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
352ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 309 ft
24-ft RF wall (the Arcade) plays RF bigger than 309
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Matt Wilkinson.
Common questions about Matt Wilkinson
Is Matt Wilkinson likely to give up a home run tonight?
Matt Wilkinson pitches tonight (AZ @ SF at Oracle Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.