Today · 2026-08-04

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Kyle Schwarber vs Zack Littell FIP 6.03 HR/FB 25.4% #4 Bryce Harper vs Zack Littell FIP 6.03 HR/FB 25.4% #6 Nick Kurtz vs Brady Singer FIP 5.24 HR/FB 22.5% #7 Pro pick vs Grant Holmes FIP 5.15 HR/FB 20.7% #9 Pro pick vs Grayson Rodriguez FIP 5.92 HR/FB 26.3%

📦 STACK Zack Littell FIP 6.03 HR/FB 25.4% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #4 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Freddy Peralta FIP 4.52 HR/FB 14.3% → #3 Hunter Goodman, #13 Pro pick

📦 STACK Jesús Luzardo FIP 3.09 HR/FB 18.2% → #8 Pro pick, #12 Pro pick

📦 STACK J.T. Ginn FIP 4.38 HR/FB 20.4% → #11 Pro pick, #14 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-08-03. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.1% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L) ³	76	-19.2	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%13.5% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	17d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffSean Manaea Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle41.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	4.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.83 IP979.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+14 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note85°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Matt Olson (L) ⁴	73	-8.2	●	Ryan Gusto (RHP) MIA @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-08-02 OffCade Cavalli Exit Velo99.7 mph Angle29.0° Distance401 ft StadiumTruist Park	●○●●●	0.0×	1	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/91.02 FIP4.05 IP1004.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-10 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 31 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁴	72	-12.0	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) TB @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	33	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-08-01 OffAlex Lange Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle34.0° Distance424 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○●○	0.3×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.21 FIP4.09 IP981.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+39 Weather · Coors Field warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind11 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note77°F, wind 11 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
4	Bryce Harper (L) ³	72	-10.6	●	Zack Littell (RHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-08-03 OffClayton Beeter Exit Velo112.6 mph Angle22.0° Distance433 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.83 IP979.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+23 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note85°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Nick Kurtz (L) ⁵	69	·	●	Brady Singer (RHP) ATH @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls7 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-07-26 OffCole Sands Exit Velo104.1 mph Angle28.0° Distance412 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	3.0×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.29 FIP4.80 IP955.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (L) ³	68	-6.7	●	Grant Holmes (RHP) MIA @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.26 IP978.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-10 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (L) ³	68	·	●	Jesús Luzardo (LHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.25 FIP3.85 IP958.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+22 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note85°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Pro pick (R) ³	67	-10.4	●	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) LAA @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV94.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.12 FIP4.37 IP984.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Camden Yards hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83°F Wind5 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (L) ³	66	-9.4	●	Hunter Dobbins (RHP) STL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.97 FIP4.09 IP978.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-3 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind8 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note77°F, wind 8 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
10	Pro pick (L) ³	66	-7.7	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) TB @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%7.8% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.21 FIP4.09 IP981.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-12 Weather · Coors Field warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind11 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note77°F, wind 11 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (R) ³	65	-7.2	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) ATH @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.58 FIP5.05 IP1008.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+2 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Pro pick (L) ³	65	-18.9	●	Javier Assad (RHP) LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.49 FIP4.66 IP908.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+40 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+40 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note81°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (L) ³	64	-0.1	●	Jesús Luzardo (LHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.25 FIP3.85 IP958.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+19 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind6 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note85°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Pro pick (L) ³	64	-10.9	●	Javier Assad (RHP) LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.49 FIP4.66 IP908.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+38 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+38 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note81°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (R) ³	64	-5.6	●	Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) LAA @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.12 FIP4.37 IP984.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+15 Weather · Camden Yards hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83°F Wind5 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (L) ³	64	-1.6	●	Grant Holmes (RHP) MIA @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls2 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.26 IP978.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (L) ³	67	-6.6	●	DET Bullpen Proxy DET @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%14.6% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.98 FIP3.85 IP987.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-9 Weather · T-Mobile Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77°F Wind7 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (L) ³	63	-16.4	●	Trey Yesavage (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.02 FIP3.81 IP921.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind11 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note88°F, wind 11 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (L) ³	63	-5.3	●	Patrick Sandoval (LHP) CWS @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BOS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.99 FIP3.72 IP974.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+40 Weather · Fenway Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind7 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+40 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (R) ³	66	-8.6	●	BAL Bullpen Proxy LAA @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%17.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.08 FIP4.15 IP970.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+11 Weather · Camden Yards hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83°F Wind5 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note83°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (S) ³	62	-11.1	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) ATH @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.58 FIP5.05 IP1008.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-2 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (L) ³	61	-8.9	●	J.T. Ginn (RHP) ATH @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.58 FIP5.05 IP1008.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+15 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+15 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (R) ³	61	-3.6	●	Grant Holmes (RHP) MIA @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.26 IP978.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-12 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (L) ³	61	-12.3	●	Brady Singer (RHP) ATH @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.29 FIP4.80 IP955.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+1 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (L) ³	61	-5.9	●	Randy Vásquez (RHP) SD @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.14 FIP4.27 IP978.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Chase Field hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp105°F Wind14 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note105°F, wind 14 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (R) ³	61	-16.6	●	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) TB @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.44 FIP4.87 IP953.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+35 Weather · Coors Field warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind11 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+35 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note77°F, wind 11 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (L) ³	60	-7.8	●	Jared Jones (RHP) PIT @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.08 FIP4.05 IP991.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-12 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp80°F Wind7 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (L) ³	60	-3.2	●	Tarik Skubal (LHP) LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.25 FIP4.13 IP1010.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note81°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Pro pick (R) ³	60	-3.6	●	Emerson Hancock (RHP) DET @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SEA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.09 FIP3.74 IP973.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-17 Weather · T-Mobile Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77°F Wind7 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (L) ³	60	-8.8	●	Ryan Gusto (RHP) MIA @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/91.02 FIP4.05 IP1004.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-11 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph ESE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)

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Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

14.4%

▲ +1.4 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 13.7% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-08-03

21 HRs

28%

6 caught / 21 HRs

in top 50

#6 Junior Caminero

22.5%

🔵

#7 Mickey Moniak

34.7%

🔵

#16 Bryce Harper

25.7%

🔵

#24 Daylen Lile

16.8%

🟠

#28 Seiya Suzuki

23.9%

🟠

#48 Derek Hill

23.6%

⚪

Missed

Ryan McMahon Trent Grisham Teoscar Hernández Alec Burleson Michael Busch +10 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Matt Olson ×5 Sal Stewart ×4 JJ Bleday ×2 Bryce Harper ×2 Junior Caminero ×2

❄️ Cold

Ben Rice 0 of 7d Drake Baldwin 0 of 7d Elly De La Cruz 0 of 7d James Wood 0 of 7d Nathaniel Lowe 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.4%

B 19.8%

C+ 17.0%

C 13.4%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-08-04

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.