TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIL

American Family Field is live · 1.16×

PIT @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph cross 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 25 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 19 · vs Henderson → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 96

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +370 C+ ●●●●○

2 Brice Turang +500 C ●●●○○

3 Christian Yelich +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 69

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +290 C ●●●○○

2 Nick Gonzales +850 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 30.9% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Jones Edge +370 0.234 · 92.7 · 10.1% 20.0% 30.9% F B O C+ 61

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Henderson Edge +290 0.233 · 91.0 · 9.8% 16.7% 22.1% F B O C 56

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Jones Edge +500 0.191 · 90.6 · 8.0% 18.2% 19.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Henderson +850 0.093 · 86.2 · 4.9% 15.4% 8.9% F B O D 33

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Jones Edge +525 0.144 · 89.0 · 8.6% 12.5% 10.7% F B O D 43

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Henderson Edge +400 0.181 · 90.8 · 9.3% 7.7% 12.2% F B O D 48

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.076 · 85.0 · 3.2% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 29

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Henderson Edge +525 0.172 · 86.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 44

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Jones Edge +525 0.166 · 92.8 · 10.4% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 48

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Jones +400 0.182 · 91.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 49

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Henderson — 0.123 · 89.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Jones +425 0.124 · 89.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 40

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Henderson — 0.067 · 87.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 29

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Jones — 0.118 · 88.1 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.2% ← leak OFF 32.3% BRK 3.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.7% 9.3% 8.2% 12.4% C 56 +290

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.5% 7.4% 15.3% 11.5% D 48 +400

117

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

8.6% 11.1% 7.4% 8.6% D 44 +525

155

Marcell Ozuna R

8.0% 0.0% 9.7% 7.7% D 39 —

193

Nick Gonzales R

2.4% 0.0% 5.2% 3.0% D 33 +850

204

Jared Triolo R

2.7% 0.0% 2.8% 2.4% D 29 —

205

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.2% usage) carries Henderson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.5% BRK 41.9% OFF 12.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.9% 14.1% 12.9% 13.8% C+ 61 +370

Brice Turang L Edge

10.2% 9.4% 1.8% 8.4% C 50 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio R

12.6% 14.1% 3.4% 11.9% D 49 +400

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

17.2% 12.1% 7.4% 14.4% D 48 +525

128

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.4% 11.8% 13.0% 9.8% D 43 +525

152

William Contreras R

8.3% 7.9% 0.0% 7.4% D 40 +425

173

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 6.2% 0.0% 4.0% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Jones's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Bauers Turang

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jake Bauers +370 · 61

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph cross 80°F retractable

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

81°F

6:40p

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

75°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 80°F, wind 7 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 56 C +290 · 40 0.233 91.0 9.8% 25.0%vs RHP 393 16.0% 16.7% 22.1% 31

2 Bryan Reynolds 48 D +400 · 84 0.181 90.8 9.3% 18.8%vs RHP 409 12.8% 7.7% 12.2% 33

3 Spencer Horwitz 44 D +525 COOL 117 0.172 86.9 8.1% 18.2%vs RHP 395 11.9% 0.0% 14.4% 2

4 Marcell Ozuna 39 D — COOL 155 0.123 89.2 7.7% 13.8%vs RHP 404 8.5% 0.0% 9.1% 18

5 Nick Gonzales 33 D +850 WARM 193 0.093 86.2 4.9% 11.9%vs RHP 397 7.5% 15.4% 8.9% 46

6 Jared Triolo 29 D — COOL 204 0.067 87.6 4.3% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 19

7 Jake Mangum 29 D — COOL 205 0.076 85.0 3.2% 12.5%vs RHP 384 4.4% 8.3% 8.2% 33

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 61 C+ +370 COOL 24 0.234 92.7 10.1% 36.4%vs RHP 402 20.7% 20.0% 30.9% 29

2 Brice Turang 50 C +500 COOL 64 0.191 90.6 8.0% 28.1%vs RHP 407 12.1% 18.2% 19.9% 34

3 Jackson Chourio 49 D +400 COOL 79 0.182 91.7 9.7% 17.2%vs RHP 402 14.1% 0.0% 11.4% 38

4 Garrett Mitchell 48 D +525 · 82 0.166 92.8 10.4% 25.8%vs RHP 415 7.9% 0.0% 14.2% 21

5 Christian Yelich 43 D +525 WARM 128 0.144 89.0 8.6% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.9% 12.5% 10.7% 28

6 William Contreras 40 D +425 COOL 152 0.124 89.8 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 419 9.0% 0.0% 8.2% 32

7 Joey Ortiz 36 D — COOL 173 0.118 88.1 5.5% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.6% 0.0% 7.7% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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