TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ SEA

Playable air · 1.08×

DET @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph cross 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -1

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 23 · vs Proxy ⟷ Kevin Mcgonigle conv 38 · vs Hancock → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 41

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +320 C ●●●○○

FADE Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 40

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kevin Mcgonigle +500 D ●●●●●

2 Dillon Dingler +500 C+ ●●●○○

3 Spencer Torkelson +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: Match 29.4% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Proxy +350 0.257 · 92.4 · 14.6% 16.7% 29.4% F B O C+ 67

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Proxy +500 0.173 · 91.0 · 8.0% 25.0% 18.2% F B O C 51

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Hancock +500 0.244 · 89.2 · 9.8% 18.2% 22.8% F B O C+ 60

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Hancock +400 0.208 · 89.7 · 10.9% 18.2% 16.3% F B O C 57

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Proxy +320 0.148 · 88.4 · 12.1% 18.2% 14.9% F B O C 52

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Hancock Edge +370 0.178 · 91.1 · 11.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Hancock Edge +500 0.143 · 88.1 · 7.9% 66.7% 9.3% F B O D 48

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Hancock +750 0.129 · 85.8 · 8.0% 20.0% 12.5% F B O D 44

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Proxy +400 0.159 · 90.0 · 8.7% 16.7% 10.1% F B O D 49

· SEA Cole Young vs Proxy +575 0.151 · 88.9 · 5.4% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 42

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Hancock Edge +700 0.150 · 88.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Proxy +750 0.148 · 85.8 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Hancock Edge +950 0.108 · 85.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Proxy +525 0.096 · 87.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 74.1% ← leak BRK 20.9% OFF 4.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dillon Dingler R

11.8% 10.4% 7.1% 10.8% C+ 60 +500

Spencer Torkelson R

14.0% 11.5% 15.0% 13.5% C 57 +400

Riley Greene L Edge

16.5% 16.9% 7.7% 14.9% C 52 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.7% 7.0% 1.8% 7.2% D 48 +500

119

Gleyber Torres R

9.6% 5.3% 0.0% 7.7% D 44 +750

131

Colt Keith L Edge

7.1% 15.4% 3.6% 7.7% D 43 +700

181

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.9% 1.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.1% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torkelson Mcgonigle Torres Canzone Raleigh Arozarena Rodríguez

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph cross 77°F retractable

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

6:40p · peak

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

7:40p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

72°F

8:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

9:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

67°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 77°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 60 C+ +500 COOL 28 0.244 89.2 9.8% 32.3%vs RHP 397 19.4% 18.2% 22.8% 33

2 Spencer Torkelson 57 C +400 COOL 36 0.208 89.7 10.9% 25.8%vs RHP 394 16.7% 18.2% 16.3% 37

3 Riley Greene 52 C +370 COOL 55 0.178 91.1 11.5% 17.1%vs RHP 399 11.9% 0.0% 12.7% 32

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 48 D +500 COOL 90 0.143 88.1 7.9% 8.7%vs RHP 400 28.6% 66.7% 9.3% 39

5 Gleyber Torres 44 D +750 WARM 119 0.129 85.8 8.0% 15.6%vs RHP 391 9.1% 20.0% 12.5% 27

6 Colt Keith 43 D +700 COOL 131 0.150 88.6 8.1% 12.7%vs RHP 389 6.5% 0.0% 10.1% 26

7 Zach Mckinstry 35 D +950 WARM 181 0.108 85.2 5.0% 7.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 33

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 67 C+ +350 COOL 17 0.257 92.4 14.6% 25.7% 403 17.0% 16.7% 29.4% 36

2 Cal Raleigh 52 C +320 HOT 80 0.148 88.4 12.1% 11.7% 393 13.6% 18.2% 14.9% 23

3 Randy Arozarena 51 C +500 WARM 91 0.173 91.0 8.0% 18.9% 394 12.9% 25.0% 18.2% 38

4 Julio Rodríguez 49 D +400 · 104 0.159 90.0 8.7% 15.1% 409 15.7% 16.7% 10.1% 40

5 Cole Young 42 D +575 WARM 159 0.151 88.9 5.4% 11.7% 387 12.0% 8.3% 9.0% 46

6 Colt Emerson 40 D +750 COOL 168 0.148 85.8 4.9% 18.4% 369 8.9% 0.0% 9.7% 27

7 Josh Naylor 34 D +525 COOL 200 0.096 87.7 4.5% 6.8% 390 6.5% 0.0% 7.2% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.