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TB @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 11 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

+14 ↑

7:40p

+16 ↑

8:40p

+10 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +16

Best of game Mickey Moniak conv 32 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 17 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 65

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mickey Moniak +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +235 B ●●●●●

3 Willi Castro +525 C ●●●○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.65 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +225 C+ ●●●○○

2 Richie Palacios +750 D ●●○○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Mickey Moniak COOL vs Peralta Edge +330 0.274 · 89.5 · 7.8% 30.0% 33.1% F B O C+ 66

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Peralta +235 0.301 · 90.8 · 9.6% 20.0% 40.8% F B O B 72

· — Willi Castro vs Peralta Edge +525 0.150 · 88.0 · 6.6% 22.2% 20.9% F B O C 51

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Hughes +225 0.260 · 93.0 · 8.1% 15.4% 17.8% F B O C+ 61

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Peralta Edge +700 0.202 · 84.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Hughes Edge +750 0.105 · 85.8 · 4.4% 14.3% 10.4% F B O D 37

· — Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Peralta +575 0.120 · 87.3 · 5.9% 12.5% 9.9% F B O D 44

· TB Nick Fortes vs Hughes — 0.108 · 85.8 · 3.4% 14.3% 7.4% F B O D 36

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Hughes Edge +370 0.154 · 87.8 · 4.4% 10.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Hughes — 0.086 · 87.3 · 2.8% 10.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· — Tj Rumfield COOL vs Peralta Edge +575 0.169 · 83.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 46

· — Kyle Karros COOL vs Peralta +575 0.162 · 89.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 49

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Hughes +500 0.159 · 90.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 41

· — Troy Johnston COOL vs Peralta Edge +850 0.106 · 89.7 · 3.3% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 37

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Hughes Edge +390 0.150 · 91.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 45

· — Tyler Freeman COOL vs Peralta — 0.069 · 87.7 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.060 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 22

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Hughes Edge +950 0.069 · 85.2 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.7% BRK 27.9% OFF 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

17.2% 10.6% 6.1% 13.2% C+ 61 +225

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

111

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.9% 13.4% 5.6% 10.5% D 45 +390

133

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.1% 3.6% 8.3% 4.0% D 43 +370

143

Yandy Diaz R

5.3% 10.6% 4.5% 7.0% D 41 +500

168

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.8% 2.1% 3.7% 3.9% D 37 +750

175

Nick Fortes R

3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 36 —

195

Ben Williamson R

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 33 —

203

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 30 +950

212

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 24.0% OFF 20.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

19.4% 15.5% 10.3% 16.9% B 72 +235

Neutral · 3

Mickey Moniak L Edge

8.8% 22.0% 2.3% 10.2% C+ 66 +330

Willi Castro S Edge

10.2% 6.3% 6.4% 8.3% C 51 +525

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.9% 1.5% 7.5% 5.1% C 50 +700

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Kyle Karros R

7.8% 5.0% 13.6% 7.6% D 49 +575

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.0% 2.0% 5.7% 4.7% D 46 +575

124

Ezequiel Tovar R

5.9% 7.4% 4.3% 6.3% D 44 +575

165

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% D 37 +850

185

Tyler Freeman R

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Mickey Moniak +330 · 66

Hunter Goodman +235 · 72

Willi Castro +525 · 51

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 11 mph slight_out 77°F open

+12

↑

7 mph · out

74°F

6:40p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

73°F

7:40p

+16

↑

12 mph · out

72°F

8:40p · peak

+10

↑

12 mph · slight_out

71°F

9:40p

↑

10 mph · cross

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 77°F, wind 11 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.65 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 61 C+ +225 COOL 26 0.260 93.0 8.1% 38.3%vs RHP 410 26.6% 15.4% 17.8% 35

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D +390 WARM 111 0.150 91.0 7.2% 18.2%vs RHP 387 11.5% 0.0% 8.9% 28

3 Cedric Mullins 43 D +370 COOL 133 0.154 87.8 4.4% 21.3%vs RHP 389 13.8% 10.0% 9.5% 25

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D +500 COOL 143 0.159 90.7 5.9% 21.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 37

5 Richie Palacios 37 D +750 WARM 168 0.105 85.8 4.4% 12.1%vs RHP 394 5.3% 14.3% 10.4% 14

6 Nick Fortes 36 D — WARM 175 0.108 85.8 3.4% 14.3%vs RHP 396 5.0% 14.3% 7.4% 23

7 Ben Williamson 33 D — COOL 195 0.086 87.3 2.8% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.9% 10.0% 6.9% 28

8 Taylor Walls 30 D +950 COOL 203 0.069 85.2 3.6% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 13

9 Chandler Simpson 22 D — COOL 212 0.060 83.8 — 3.2%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 39

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 72 B +235 COOL 3 0.301 90.8 9.6% 42.6%vs RHP 411 24.5% 20.0% 40.8% 18

2 Mickey Moniak 66 C+ +330 COOL 10 0.274 89.5 7.8% 23.4%vs RHP 417 17.8% 30.0% 33.1% 27

3 Willi Castro 51 C +525 WARM 57 0.150 88.0 6.6% 16.1%vs RHP 412 10.7% 22.2% 20.9% 21

4 Jake Mccarthy 50 C +700 COOL 64 0.202 84.8 5.3% 16.0%vs RHP 419 13.3% 0.0% 16.7% 35

5 Kyle Karros 49 D +575 COOL 75 0.162 89.7 6.7% 23.5%vs RHP 417 10.3% 0.0% 13.4% 17

6 Tj Rumfield 46 D +575 COOL 99 0.169 83.6 5.2% 16.9%vs RHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 14.1% 30

7 Ezequiel Tovar 44 D +575 COOL 124 0.120 87.3 5.9% 16.1%vs RHP 410 8.2% 12.5% 9.9% 16

8 Troy Johnston 37 D +850 COOL 165 0.106 89.7 3.3% 7.3%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 9.5% 20

9 Tyler Freeman 34 D — COOL 185 0.069 87.7 2.8% 3.7%vs RHP 369 1.9% 0.0% 8.1% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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