TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.12×

STL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:05p

+2 ↑

8:05p

+2 ↑

9:05p

+2 ↑

10:05p

+2 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +2 FIT

Best of game José Fermín conv 10 · vs Weathers ⟷ Ben Rice conv 23 · vs Dobbins → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 96

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · leakiest side of this game

1 José Fermín +850 D ●○○○○

2 Jordan Walker +350 C ●○○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE Hunter Dobbins RHP · STL

leak 13

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Austin Wells +425 D ●●○○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 25.5% · 14D pace 21.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Dobbins Edge +305 0.295 · 92.2 · 10.8% 21.4% 25.5% F B O C+ 66

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Dobbins — 0.205 · 86.4 · 8.9% 9.1% 15.3% F B O C 50

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Weathers Edge +350 0.209 · 93.2 · 11.0% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Dobbins Edge +425 0.110 · 89.2 · 7.3% 20.0% 12.4% F B O D 41

· STL José Fermín vs Weathers Edge +850 0.121 · 86.2 · 4.6% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 36

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Weathers — 0.124 · 86.1 · 8.1% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 40

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Dobbins Edge +350 0.163 · 90.8 · 8.5% 7.7% 9.4% F B O D 45

· STL Alec Burleson vs Weathers +425 0.174 · 91.7 · 10.0% 7.1% 9.8% F B O D 49

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Weathers Edge +575 0.135 · 89.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 37

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Dobbins +950 0.143 · 83.6 · 5.0% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 34

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Weathers +525 0.140 · 89.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Dobbins Edge +475 0.154 · 91.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 44

· STL Masyn Winn vs Weathers Edge +850 0.081 · 88.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.0% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 24.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

13.8% 12.0% 14.7% 13.3% C 55 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L

11.0% 11.7% 11.0% 11.2% D 49 +425

135

Jj Wetherholt L

9.8% 3.5% 2.0% 7.1% D 42 +525

154

Nathan Church L

8.5% 7.0% 5.8% 7.4% D 40 —

163

Ivan Herrera R Edge

5.2% 5.2% 7.1% 5.4% D 37 +575

171

José Fermín R Edge

2.8% 2.4% 0.0% 2.3% D 36 +850

199

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.5% 2.2% 3.3% 3.1% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.0% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.4% BRK 43.4% OFF 10.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

19.0% 12.4% 12.2% 15.8% C+ 66 +305

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.3% 4.7% 9.4% 10.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

113

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.0% 8.9% 5.6% 9.9% D 45 +350

122

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.0% 4.8% 9.1% 10.3% D 44 +475

145

Austin Wells L Edge

8.4% 9.4% 0.0% 7.3% D 41 +425

184

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 34 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobbins's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice +305 · 66

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

80°F

7:05p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

8:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

75°F

10:05p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

74°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 77°F, wind 8 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 55 C +350 COOL 45 0.209 93.2 11.0% 35.3%vs LHP 406 16.8% 0.0% 18.9% 38

2 Alec Burleson 49 D +425 · 80 0.174 91.7 10.0% 6.7%vs LHP 407 14.8% 7.1% 9.8% 38

3 Jj Wetherholt 42 D +525 · 135 0.140 89.9 8.0% 12.8%vs LHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 9.5% 37

4 Nathan Church 40 D — COOL 154 0.124 86.1 8.1% 20.0%vs LHP 388 9.2% 9.1% 9.0% 26

5 Ivan Herrera 37 D +575 · 163 0.135 89.1 7.0% 26.1%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 38

6 José Fermín 36 D +850 WARM 171 0.121 86.2 4.6% 13.0%vs LHP 388 6.5% 10.0% 9.3% 30

7 Masyn Winn 31 D +850 · 199 0.081 88.1 5.3% 0.0%vs LHP 390 3.7% 0.0% 7.3% 32

vs Hunter Dobbins · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 66 C+ +305 COOL 9 0.295 92.2 10.8% 33.8%vs RHP 390 25.5% 21.4% 25.5% 27

2 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 69 0.205 86.4 8.9% 18.9%vs RHP 390 16.2% 9.1% 15.3% 31

3 Trent Grisham 45 D +350 COOL 113 0.163 90.8 8.5% 16.4%vs RHP 390 11.5% 7.7% 9.4% 33

4 Ryan Mcmahon 44 D +475 WARM 122 0.154 91.4 8.6% 20.9%vs RHP 384 16.7% 0.0% 9.4% 17

5 Austin Wells 41 D +425 HOT 145 0.110 89.2 7.3% 14.3%vs RHP 386 10.5% 20.0% 12.4% 11

6 Jose Caballero 34 D +950 COOL 184 0.143 83.6 5.0% 17.6%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.