TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.16×

MIN @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 7 mph cross 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -2

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 22 · vs Ryan ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 29 · vs Dobnak → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 87

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +390 C ●●●○○

2 Carter Jensen +370 C ●●●○○

3 Isaac Collins +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 13

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach +575 D ●●●●○

2 Royce Lewis +425 D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ COOL vs Ryan Edge +390 0.205 · 93.0 · 12.5% 22.2% 21.6% F B O C 55

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs Ryan Edge +370 0.191 · 90.8 · 10.2% 18.2% 19.1% F B O C 50

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Dobnak Edge +370 0.241 · 92.6 · 8.5% 9.1% 13.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach HOT vs Dobnak Edge +575 0.172 · 87.3 · 6.7% 42.9% 15.5% F B O D 45

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Dobnak +425 0.185 · 89.6 · 8.5% 18.2% 12.8% F B O D 48

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Dobnak Edge +625 0.178 · 87.6 · 4.7% 18.2% 12.1% F B O D 42

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Dobnak +850 0.100 · 84.9 · 4.1% 18.2% 9.2% F B O D 32

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Ryan Edge +700 0.132 · 88.3 · 7.7% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· KC Salvador Perez vs Ryan +390 0.161 · 89.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Dobnak Edge +425 0.163 · 89.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Ryan Edge +525 0.154 · 89.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.115 · 89.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· MIN Austin Martin vs Dobnak — 0.078 · 87.2 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.1% BRK 25.5% OFF 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.8% 21.0% 11.4% 11.9% C 53 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

15.6% 8.5% 8.7% 12.7% D 48 +425

107

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.2% 8.0% 5.7% 7.8% D 45 +575

136

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.1% 0.0% 1.2% 3.6% D 42 +625

138

Josh Bell S Edge

9.8% 13.2% 5.8% 9.6% D 42 +425

189

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.8% 6.5% 6.7% D 33 —

196

Luke Keaschall R

4.6% 2.3% 0.0% 3.4% D 32 +850

208

Austin Martin R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.3% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 12.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.9% 18.2% 11.3% 14.8% C 55 +390

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.9% 8.5% 8.7% 9.6% C 50 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

143

Salvador Perez R

13.7% 7.1% 8.7% 10.4% D 41 +390

158

Michael Massey L Edge

7.2% 5.9% 2.2% 6.0% D 39 +525

167

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.8% 10.3% 0.0% 5.5% D 37 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.3% usage) carries Ryan's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lewis Larnach Lee Keaschall Caglianone Jensen

Legend

attack side — vs Ryan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +390 · 55

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 7 mph cross 88°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

88°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

87°F

7:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

85°F

8:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

83°F

9:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 88°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 53 C +370 COOL 51 0.241 92.6 8.5% 19.4%vs RHP 390 17.6% 9.1% 13.7% 38

2 Royce Lewis 48 D +425 WARM 83 0.185 89.6 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 398 17.4% 18.2% 12.8% 34

3 Trevor Larnach 45 D +575 HOT 107 0.172 87.3 6.7% 14.8%vs RHP 400 10.2% 42.9% 15.5% 23

4 Brooks Lee 42 D +625 COOL 136 0.178 87.6 4.7% 20.0%vs RHP 369 14.7% 18.2% 12.1% 34

5 Josh Bell 42 D +425 COOL 138 0.163 89.9 7.6% 19.2%vs RHP 404 9.4% 0.0% 9.2% 27

6 Victor Caratini 33 D — COOL 189 0.115 89.8 6.4% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 18

7 Luke Keaschall 32 D +850 HOT 196 0.100 84.9 4.1% 8.8%vs RHP 370 6.3% 18.2% 9.2% 30

8 Austin Martin 28 D — WARM 208 0.078 87.2 3.5% 4.0%vs RHP 392 1.7% 0.0% 6.2% 16

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 55 C +390 COOL 44 0.205 93.0 12.5% 28.9%vs RHP 417 14.3% 22.2% 21.6% 29

2 Carter Jensen 50 C +370 COOL 65 0.191 90.8 10.2% 18.1%vs RHP 396 14.9% 18.2% 19.1% 27

3 Salvador Perez 41 D +390 WARM 143 0.161 89.1 10.4% 19.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 34

4 Michael Massey 39 D +525 COOL 158 0.154 89.9 8.1% 8.5%vs RHP 398 5.5% 0.0% 8.9% 31

5 Isaac Collins 37 D +700 COOL 167 0.132 88.3 7.7% 8.7%vs RHP 394 6.4% 10.0% 7.7% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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