TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.41×

SD @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 15 mph slight_out 104°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 16 · vs Vásquez ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 24 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Randy Vásquez RHP · SD

leak 67

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +425 C ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 42

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●●●○

2 Manny Machado +400 C ●●●○○

3 Ty France +525 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: 12.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Rodriguez Edge +400 0.217 · 90.6 · 9.7% 15.4% 19.3% F B O C 53

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ vs Vásquez Edge +425 0.232 · 91.8 · 11.7% 15.4% 13.9% F B O C 56

· SD Ty France COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +525 0.239 · 92.5 · 9.8% 7.7% 14.5% F B O C 52

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Vásquez Edge +425 0.195 · 90.3 · 10.6% 8.3% 11.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Rodriguez +525 0.160 · 90.1 · 9.6% 33.3% 14.2% F B O D 48

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Vásquez +575 0.180 · 85.3 · 8.9% 18.2% 14.7% F B O D 47

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Vásquez Edge +850 0.127 · 87.1 · 6.3% 15.4% 7.1% F B O D 37

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Vásquez Edge — 0.121 · 88.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 39

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.179 · 87.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 41

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Vásquez Edge — 0.134 · 87.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Rodriguez +950 0.071 · 88.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.100 · 88.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.2% ← leak OFF 26.9% BRK 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Manny Machado R Edge

13.4% 7.5% 6.7% 10.8% C 53 +400

Ty France R Edge

11.6% 6.9% 11.6% 11.0% C 52 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L

12.6% 5.8% 10.5% 10.5% D 48 +525

152

Gavin Sheets L

9.2% 1.9% 4.3% 6.6% D 41 —

211

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.3% 3.7% 2.5% 5.7% D 33 +850

218

Jake Cronenworth L

4.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.5% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.2% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 69.1% ← leak BRK 23.1% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.1% 15.3% 11.5% 12.0% C 56 +425

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.8% 7.2% 3.8% 9.9% C 51 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

10.6% 2.2% 6.2% 7.4% D 47 +575

175

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% D 39 —

188

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.4% 1.8% 2.4% 3.5% D 37 +850

198

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 1.6% 1.5% 3.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.1% usage) carries Vásquez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill Carroll Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Vásquez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 15 mph slight_out 104°F retractable

↑

9 mph · slight_out

91°F

6:40p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

91°F

7:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

91°F

8:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

91°F

9:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

91°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 104°F, wind 15 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 53 C +400 WARM 46 0.217 90.6 9.7% 18.2%vs LHP 397 19.6% 15.4% 19.3% 39

2 Ty France 52 C +525 COOL 52 0.239 92.5 9.8% 23.1%vs LHP 394 17.5% 7.7% 14.5% 38

3 Jackson Merrill 48 D +525 WARM 84 0.160 90.1 9.6% 13.0%vs LHP 410 14.3% 33.3% 14.2% 40

4 Gavin Sheets 41 D — COOL 152 0.179 87.6 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.2% 0.0% 7.4% 23

5 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +850 WARM 211 0.100 88.2 7.0% 5.6%vs LHP 396 7.7% 0.0% 6.2% 32

6 Jake Cronenworth 30 D +950 COOL 218 0.071 88.0 6.3% 9.1% 389 1.6% 0.0% 6.5% 32

vs Randy Vásquez · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 56 C +425 WARM 37 0.232 91.8 11.7% 17.4%vs RHP 401 14.0% 15.4% 13.9% 40

2 Ketel Marte 51 C +425 COOL 64 0.195 90.3 10.6% 14.5%vs RHP 412 14.9% 8.3% 11.1% 40

3 Nolan Arenado 47 D +575 · 92 0.180 85.3 8.9% 19.2%vs RHP 391 13.6% 18.2% 14.7% 32

4 Adrian Del Castillo 39 D — COOL 175 0.121 88.4 8.5% 16.1%vs RHP 400 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% 18

5 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D +850 WARM 188 0.127 87.1 6.3% 11.0%vs RHP 383 8.2% 15.4% 7.1% 44

6 Ildemaro Vargas 35 D — COOL 198 0.134 87.6 5.9% 9.4%vs RHP 399 4.9% 0.0% 7.1% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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