TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.30×

MIA @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 2 mph in 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:15p

+4 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

+3 ↑

10:15p

+4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +5

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 34 · vs Holmes ⟷ Matt Olson conv 39 · vs Gusto → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 88

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Heriberto Hernández +475 C+ ●●○○○

3 Owen Caissie +525 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 34

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +280 B ●●●●●

2 Dominic Smith — D ●●●●○

3 Ozzie Albies +500 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 34.4% · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Gusto Edge +280 0.275 · 92.7 · 10.7% 42.9% 34.4% F B O B 73

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Holmes Edge +330 0.225 · 92.0 · 10.9% 33.3% 33.9% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Gusto Edge +500 0.172 · 86.9 · 5.8% 21.4% 17.0% F B O C 50

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Gusto Edge +525 0.154 · 90.3 · 7.3% 20.0% 18.2% F B O C 50

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Holmes +475 0.236 · 92.2 · 11.1% 0.0% 32.0% F B O C+ 61

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Gusto Edge +350 0.195 · 91.5 · 10.8% 14.3% 16.2% F B O C+ 60

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Holmes Edge +525 0.216 · 91.8 · 12.4% 0.0% 24.8% F B O C+ 64

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Holmes +625 0.157 · 89.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Gusto Edge — 0.136 · 87.8 · 6.5% 33.3% 15.8% F B O D 47

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.102 · 86.9 · 5.9% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 44

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Holmes +950 0.132 · 86.9 · 3.9% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 43

· ATL Austin Riley vs Gusto +525 0.135 · 90.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Gusto +850 0.136 · 86.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.107 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.3% ← leak BRK 44.1% OFF 5.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kyle Stowers L Edge

11.0% 18.5% 7.9% 12.4% C+ 68 +330

Owen Caissie L Edge

18.2% 8.1% 21.4% 16.0% C+ 64 +525

Heriberto Hernández R

12.3% 12.7% 17.6% 12.9% C+ 61 +475

Otto Lopez R

9.6% 4.5% 1.8% 6.6% C 50 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

120

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 2.2% 8.1% 3.7% D 44 —

134

Javier Sanoja R

2.1% 2.4% 0.0% 2.0% D 43 +950

139

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.8% 2.7% 3.0% 4.0% D 42 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.3% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.5% BRK 29.6% OFF 17.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

16.6% 11.6% 10.8% 14.4% B 73 +280

Neutral · 3

Drake Baldwin L Edge

14.9% 19.7% 5.0% 14.6% C+ 60 +350

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.5% 6.4% 6.7% 7.1% C 50 +525

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.3% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R

13.0% 10.4% 2.9% 10.9% D 48 +525

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.1% 7.7% 2.6% 5.9% D 47 —

147

Mauricio Dubon R

3.1% 6.2% 5.3% 4.3% D 40 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Gusto's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Olson Baldwin Yastrzemski Albies Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Matt Olson +280 · 73

Kyle Stowers +330 · 68

Mike Yastrzemski +525 · 50

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 2 mph in 82°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

81°F

7:15p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

81°F

8:15p

↑

4 mph · in

80°F

9:15p

↑

4 mph · in

79°F

10:15p

↑

3 mph · in

78°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 82°F, wind 2 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 68 C+ +330 WARM 6 0.225 92.0 10.9% 26.3%vs RHP 396 14.5% 33.3% 33.9% 31

2 Owen Caissie 64 C+ +525 COOL 16 0.216 91.8 12.4% 29.3%vs RHP 398 15.6% 0.0% 24.8% 2

3 Heriberto Hernández 61 C+ +475 COOL 23 0.236 92.2 11.1% 17.9%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 32.0% 25

4 Otto Lopez 50 C +625 COOL 70 0.157 89.3 8.0% 12.3%vs RHP 402 7.4% 0.0% 11.7% 45

5 Jakob Marsee 44 D — COOL 120 0.102 86.9 5.9% 8.6%vs RHP 380 6.8% 11.1% 9.9% 19

6 Javier Sanoja 43 D +950 WARM 134 0.132 86.9 3.9% 3.0%vs RHP 385 5.6% 11.1% 8.4% 36

7 Xavier Edwards 42 D — COOL 139 0.107 86.9 6.2% 3.1%vs RHP 396 4.6% 0.0% 8.4% 37

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 73 B +280 · 2 0.275 92.7 10.7% 32.8%vs RHP 408 23.9% 42.9% 34.4% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 60 C+ +350 · 30 0.195 91.5 10.8% 28.9%vs RHP 403 18.5% 14.3% 16.2% 39

3 Mike Yastrzemski 50 C +525 WARM 66 0.154 90.3 7.3% 17.0%vs RHP 390 9.9% 20.0% 18.2% 16

4 Ozzie Albies 50 C +500 COOL 67 0.172 86.9 5.8% 13.3%vs RHP 386 14.2% 21.4% 17.0% 41

5 Austin Riley 48 D +525 WARM 86 0.135 90.8 9.2% 17.2%vs RHP 405 8.1% 0.0% 10.1% 22

6 Dominic Smith 47 D — · 94 0.136 87.8 6.5% 15.7%vs RHP 390 8.6% 33.3% 15.8% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 40 D +850 WARM 147 0.136 86.7 5.9% 12.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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