TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.34×

LAD @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 8 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:05p

+10 ↑

8:05p

+9 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+7 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +10

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Skubal ⟷ Max Muncy conv 31 · vs Assad → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 100

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Seiya Suzuki +425 C ●●●○○

3 Michael Conforto — D ●●○○○

FADE Javier Assad RHP · CHC

leak 92

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +192 C+ ●●●○○

3 Kyle Tucker +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Skubal +500 0.256 · 90.2 · 9.4% 25.0% 40.9% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Assad Edge +290 0.238 · 90.2 · 10.2% 30.0% 32.3% F B O C+ 64

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Assad Edge +192 0.250 · 93.8 · 11.3% 18.2% 26.7% F B O C+ 65

· — Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Skubal Edge +425 0.203 · 88.8 · 8.5% 18.2% 23.0% F B O C 50

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Assad +475 0.188 · 88.9 · 7.7% 9.1% 12.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Assad Edge +425 0.131 · 88.9 · 7.1% 20.0% 13.4% F B O D 44

· — Michael Conforto COOL vs Skubal — 0.224 · 91.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 28.6% F B O D 49

· — Nico Hoerner vs Skubal Edge +1000 0.098 · 86.0 · 2.5% 18.2% 7.4% F B O D 28

· — Alex Bregman vs Skubal Edge +525 0.130 · 87.8 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 36

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Assad +400 0.154 · 89.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 43

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Assad Edge +400 0.179 · 90.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 49

· — Dansby Swanson COOL vs Skubal Edge +525 0.181 · 89.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 43

· — Michael Busch COOL vs Skubal +750 0.146 · 88.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 41

· — Ian Happ COOL vs Skubal Edge +575 0.197 · 89.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 48

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Assad +500 0.170 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· — Carson Kelly COOL vs Skubal Edge +625 0.108 · 87.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 73.6% ← leak BRK 19.3% OFF 7.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.9% 10.2% 16.3% 16.8% C+ 65 +192

Max Muncy L Edge

16.4% 15.0% 6.8% 13.7% C+ 64 +290

Andy Pages R

7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 7.9% C 50 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.5% 9.2% 9.4% 9.4% D 49 +400

Mookie Betts R

9.6% 3.4% 6.5% 7.8% D 47 +500

118

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.6% 3.4% 1.5% 6.5% D 44 +425

124

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.5% 12.8% 7.7% 9.2% D 43 +400

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.6% usage) carries Assad's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.2% ← leak OFF 25.1% BRK 18.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.9% 14.5% 13.0% 11.7% C+ 60 +500

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.4% 10.0% 8.7% 9.7% C 50 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Michael Conforto L

9.9% 13.6% 18.8% 11.9% D 49 —

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 1.5% 15.9% 11.8% D 48 +575

126

Dansby Swanson R Edge

6.5% 12.9% 6.9% 7.4% D 43 +525

144

Michael Busch L

12.4% 2.4% 4.3% 9.2% D 41 +750

172

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.1% 6.7% 6.4% 4.2% D 36 +525

184

Carson Kelly R Edge

7.3% 5.9% 3.0% 5.8% D 34 +625

206

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.2% 2.3% 0.0% 1.0% D 28 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.2% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Tucker Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Conforto

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong +500 · 60

Max Muncy +290 · 64

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 8 mph out 81°F open

+10

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

7:05p · peak

+10

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

8:05p

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

9:05p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

10:05p

↑

6 mph · out

75°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 81°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Javier Assad · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 65 C+ +192 WARM 12 0.250 93.8 11.3% 23.3%vs RHP 405 19.6% 18.2% 26.7% 29

2 Max Muncy ✶ 64 C+ +290 WARM 14 0.238 90.2 10.2% 25.9%vs RHP 411 18.8% 30.0% 32.3% 22

3 Andy Pages 50 C +475 COOL 69 0.188 88.9 7.7% 21.3%vs RHP 390 13.8% 9.1% 12.6% 35

4 Freddie Freeman 49 D +400 COOL 76 0.179 90.2 8.5% 16.4%vs RHP 398 12.0% 0.0% 12.9% 40

5 Mookie Betts 47 D +500 COOL 97 0.170 90.6 7.8% 17.7%vs RHP 389 10.1% 0.0% 10.9% 33

6 Kyle Tucker 44 D +425 WARM 118 0.131 88.9 7.1% 10.3%vs RHP 397 6.7% 20.0% 13.4% 26

7 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +400 COOL 124 0.154 89.0 8.2% 19.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 30

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 60 C+ +500 WARM 27 0.256 90.2 9.4% 22.7%vs LHP 393 19.6% 25.0% 40.9% 29

2 Seiya Suzuki 50 C +425 COOL 63 0.203 88.8 8.5% 33.3%vs LHP 407 15.6% 18.2% 23.0% 27

3 Michael Conforto 49 D — COOL 72 0.224 91.7 9.3% 19.1% 399 7.9% 0.0% 28.6% 15

4 Ian Happ 48 D +575 COOL 85 0.197 89.5 9.5% 14.3%vs LHP 404 17.1% 0.0% 12.0% 29

5 Dansby Swanson 43 D +525 COOL 126 0.181 89.4 7.5% 22.7%vs LHP 403 11.8% 0.0% 12.3% 28

6 Michael Busch 41 D +750 COOL 144 0.146 88.5 8.5% 10.0%vs LHP 403 12.4% 0.0% 12.2% 43

7 Alex Bregman 36 D +525 · 172 0.130 87.8 5.7% 12.5%vs LHP 389 9.2% 9.1% 7.8% 37

8 Carson Kelly 34 D +625 COOL 184 0.108 87.8 6.6% 18.2%vs LHP 416 6.5% 0.0% 8.4% 23

9 Nico Hoerner 28 D +1000 WARM 206 0.098 86.0 2.5% 8.7%vs LHP 383 5.5% 18.2% 7.4% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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