11
HRs allowed
18.6%
HR rate (pool)
14.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.77
FIP
4.44
xFIP
+0.33
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
63
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 63th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.9 EV · 400 ft
max EV allowed 112.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 10 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Javier Assad.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
40.5%
86.3
17.9°
2
-1.1
Fastball Hard
19.2%
83.1
30.8°
4
-0.8
Cutter Hard
14.8%
82.3
20.1°
2
+0.9
Sweeper Breaking
7.3%
76.9
14.6°
0
-1.8
Changeup Offspeed
7.0%
83.3
8.0°
3
+4.4
Curveball Breaking
6.7%
81.6
21.5°
0
-0.5
Slider Breaking
4.6%
84.7
18.1°
1
+3.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups59
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate18.6%
Pool HR/game day1.57
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB14.0% 63
HR/9—
FIP4.77 74
xFIP4.44
FIP − xFIP+0.33 67
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Sinker
Hard · 40.5% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle17.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches402
Fastball
Hard · 19.2% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle30.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches190
Cutter
Hard · 14.8% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle20.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches147
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.3% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.9 mph
Avg launch angle14.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches72
Changeup
Offspeed · 7.0% usage
+4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle8.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches69
Curveball
Breaking · 6.7% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle21.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches66
Slider
Breaking · 4.6% usage
+3.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle18.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches46
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Javier Assad.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 400 ft
10 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 7 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
9
3
112.4
2026-07-05
9
1
109.2
2026-06-24
8
3
108.3
2026-06-17
8
3
107.7
2026-06-12
7
0
101.8
2026-04-19
9
1
111.5
2026-04-07
9
0
105.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Javier Assad isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.