TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.25×

LAA @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 5 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:35p

+6 ↑

7:35p

+6 ↑

8:35p

+6 ↑

9:35p

+6 ↑

10:35p

the 7:35p window peaks +6

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 20 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 15 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 95

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +390 C+ ●●●○○

2 Pete Alonso +290 C+ ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +330 C ●●○○○

FADE BAL Bullpen Proxy

leak 40

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom +700 D ●●○○○

2 Jorge Soler +400 C ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout +320 C+ ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 12.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Rodriguez +390 0.211 · 92.7 · 11.2% 14.3% 25.3% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Rodriguez +290 0.214 · 94.0 · 11.5% 16.7% 22.2% F B O C+ 67

· — Jorge Soler vs Proxy +400 0.170 · 88.6 · 10.9% 11.1% 12.3% F B O C 54

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Rodriguez Edge +330 0.177 · 89.5 · 8.7% 8.3% 12.7% F B O C 57

· — Mike Trout COOL vs Proxy +320 0.208 · 90.1 · 17.5% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C+ 66

· — Zach Neto vs Proxy +330 0.196 · 89.3 · 12.5% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 59

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.120 · 86.7 · 10.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· — Vaughn Grissom vs Proxy +700 0.146 · 89.1 · 7.1% 18.2% 11.8% F B O D 48

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +575 0.118 · 87.5 · 7.0% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 46

· — Oswald Peraza COOL vs Proxy — 0.131 · 87.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· — Josh Lowe vs Proxy +625 0.146 · 88.8 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 48

· — Nolan Schanuel vs Proxy +750 0.108 · 87.5 · 2.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.7% ← leak BRK 23.4% OFF 22.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R

14.4% 8.0% 15.2% 12.6% C+ 67 +290

Coby Mayo R

10.6% 10.7% 19.0% 11.7% C+ 64 +390

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 6.2% 7.4% 7.1% C 57 +330

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.5% 10.8% 2.4% 10.1% C 52 —

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

101

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 8.3% 0.0% 4.5% D 46 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for BAL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Grissom

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 5 mph cross 83°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

84°F

6:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:35p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

80°F

9:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 83°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 67 C+ +290 WARM 8 0.214 94.0 11.5% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 16.7% 22.2% 36

2 Coby Mayo 64 C+ +390 WARM 15 0.211 92.7 11.2% 12.5%vs RHP 405 15.7% 14.3% 25.3% 13

3 Gunnar Henderson 57 C +330 · 38 0.177 89.5 8.7% 16.9%vs RHP 390 15.6% 8.3% 12.7% 30

4 Colton Cowser 52 C — COOL 56 0.120 86.7 10.4% 18.2%vs RHP 417 12.7% 0.0% 12.0% 7

5 Leody Taveras 46 D +575 COOL 101 0.118 87.5 7.0% 12.8%vs RHP 419 3.9% 9.1% 8.9% 27

vs BAL Bullpen Proxy 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 66 C+ +320 COOL 20 0.208 90.1 17.5% 19.1% 409 15.6% 0.0% 14.4% 31

2 Zach Neto 59 C +330 · 43 0.196 89.3 12.5% 15.0% 402 16.2% 0.0% 12.9% 26

3 Jorge Soler 54 C +400 WARM 61 0.170 88.6 10.9% 17.9% 400 12.8% 11.1% 12.3% 19

4 Vaughn Grissom 48 D +700 · 114 0.146 89.1 7.1% 10.9% 390 10.9% 18.2% 11.8% 31

5 Josh Lowe 48 D +625 · 115 0.146 88.8 9.4% 12.9% 396 10.0% 0.0% 9.3% 9

6 Oswald Peraza 44 D — COOL 145 0.131 87.3 7.4% 14.0% 386 6.2% 0.0% 10.6% 5

7 Nolan Schanuel 35 D +750 · 198 0.108 87.5 2.5% 8.3% 372 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.