2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 3 Wilyer Abreu 5 HRs · 4 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 5 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 6 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs · 7 Ceddanne Rafaela 4 HRs · 8 Nolan Arenado 4 HRs · 9 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 10 Jackson Chourio 4 HRs · 11 Sal Stewart 4 HRs · 12 Griffin Conine 3 HRs 1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 3 Wilyer Abreu 5 HRs · 4 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 5 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 6 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs · 7 Ceddanne Rafaela 4 HRs · 8 Nolan Arenado 4 HRs · 9 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs · 10 Jackson Chourio 4 HRs · 11 Sal Stewart 4 HRs · 12 Griffin Conine 3 HRs
BB

BAL Bullpen Proxy

0 matchups scored · 0 game days · 8 listed today
0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
11.6%
Overall HR/FB
4.1
FIP
4.1
xFIP
#14
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter STINGY
LEAKY 39
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
39
no model flags today
Vulnerability 39th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
0 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
Hard-Hit% allowed
Fly-ball rate
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
BAL @ TB 7:10p · Tropicana Field Park 1.05 Wind 0.0 — dome BP FIP 4.10 BP HR 11.6% 4L / 3R listed (+1S) · lineup: proxy_pa_leaders
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot
Overall Score
Prime targets · 1
13.7% B 73
Long shots · 7 — below the fade line
9.8% D 47
135 Yandy Diaz R
7.0% D 41
3.6% D 38
4.1% D 35
188 Nick Fortes R
2.3% D 31
192 Taylor Walls S
2.3% D 30
0.0% D 20
0 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB11.6% 39
HR/9
FIP4.1 52
xFIP4.1
FIP − xFIP
Barrel% allowed
Hard-Hit% allowed
FB%
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
IP
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-14
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
Junior Caminero R 0 never faced
Jonathan Aranda L 0 never faced
Yandy Diaz R 0 never faced
Cedric Mullins L 0 never faced
Richie Palacios L 0 never faced
Nick Fortes R 0 never faced
Taylor Walls S 0 never faced
Chandler Simpson L 0 never faced
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for BAL Bullpen Proxy.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Tropicana Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor 1.047 Wind 0 mph from — Temp Roof
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p 0 +1
8:10p 0 +1
9:10p 0 +1
10:10p 0 +1
11:10p 0 +1
+1
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 0 mph
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
315ft
short
CF
404ft
avg
RF
322ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
340ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF
345ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: LF 315 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for BAL Bullpen Proxy.
Six home runs to freedom

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Common questions about BAL Bullpen Proxy

Is BAL Bullpen Proxy likely to give up a home run tonight?

BAL Bullpen Proxy pitches tonight (BAL @ TB at Tropicana Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.

THR 3.3.158 · build 664

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