TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ CLE

Neutral air · 1.04×

NYM @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -3

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 18 · vs Cantillo ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 19 · vs Manaea → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 73

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +425 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +700 D ●●○○○

3 Brett Baty — D ●○○○○

FADE Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 66

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +390 C ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez +625 D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ vs Manaea Edge +390 0.204 · 88.8 · 10.7% 16.7% 22.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Cantillo Edge +425 0.192 · 91.8 · 8.8% 15.4% 20.2% F B O D 47

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Cantillo Edge +700 0.136 · 86.6 · 7.5% 20.0% 12.4% F B O D 40

· NYM Brett Baty vs Cantillo — 0.103 · 89.5 · 7.9% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 35

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Cantillo Edge +500 0.185 · 90.2 · 11.1% 0.0% 15.9% F B O D 43

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Manaea Edge +625 0.189 · 87.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Manaea +575 0.166 · 91.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 40

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Manaea Edge +390 0.155 · 89.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Manaea +750 0.152 · 88.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Cantillo Edge +700 0.108 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Cantillo +850 0.135 · — · 7.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· NYM Carson Benge vs Cantillo +700 0.129 · 89.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Manaea Edge +850 0.125 · 86.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Manaea — 0.059 · 83.6 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.4% ← leak BRK 33.4% OFF 26.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.3% 7.4% 7.7% 9.9% D 47 +425

126

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

17.2% 15.9% 15.8% 16.6% D 43 +500

151

Marcus Semien R Edge

10.1% 2.4% 8.3% 7.4% D 40 +700

174

Carson Benge L

7.3% 9.1% 5.7% 7.5% D 36 +700

179

Brett Baty L

7.7% 12.5% 4.3% 8.0% D 35 —

189

A.J. Ewing L

8.3% 8.5% 0.0% 6.9% D 33 +850

191

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.3% 11.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 33 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.4% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.1% ← leak BRK 31.1% OFF 3.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

12.4% 15.4% 13.3% 13.2% C 52 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

148

Angel Martinez S Edge

5.6% 14.9% 3.4% 7.2% D 40 +625

150

Chase Delauter L

9.6% 4.9% 1.7% 6.7% D 40 +575

157

Travis Bazzana L

4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 4.0% D 39 +750

164

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 37 +390

194

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 5.0% 1.2% 3.1% D 33 +850

213

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.1% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Hoskins

Legend

attack side — vs Cantillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 78°F open

-7

↑

6 mph · in

79°F

6:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

76°F

7:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

70°F

9:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

66°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 78°F, wind 6 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 47 D +425 · 94 0.192 91.8 8.8% 20.0%vs LHP 394 11.3% 15.4% 20.2% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 43 D +500 WARM 126 0.185 90.2 11.1% 22.2%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 15

3 Marcus Semien 40 D +700 WARM 151 0.136 86.6 7.5% 9.5%vs LHP 391 11.1% 20.0% 12.4% 27

4 Carson Benge 36 D +700 · 174 0.129 89.3 7.5% 18.8%vs LHP 399 8.2% 0.0% 7.6% 29

5 Brett Baty 35 D — WARM 179 0.103 89.5 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 395 5.8% 9.1% 9.4% 11

6 A.J. Ewing 33 D +850 COOL 189 0.135 — 7.2% 18.2%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 37

7 Bo Bichette 33 D +700 COOL 191 0.108 89.2 6.7% 17.4%vs LHP 385 8.3% 0.0% 7.9% 39

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 52 C +390 WARM 53 0.204 88.8 10.7% 25.0%vs LHP 386 14.1% 16.7% 22.3% 9

2 Angel Martinez 40 D +625 COOL 148 0.189 87.6 8.1% 22.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 18

3 Chase Delauter 40 D +575 WARM 150 0.166 91.0 7.6% 13.3%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 33

4 Travis Bazzana 39 D +750 COOL 157 0.152 88.2 6.4% 10.0%vs LHP 396 11.6% 0.0% 9.1% 33

5 Jose Ramirez 37 D +390 COOL 164 0.155 89.3 7.2% 20.8%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 39

6 Brayan Rocchio 33 D +850 · 194 0.125 86.5 5.3% 10.7%vs LHP 386 7.5% 0.0% 7.1% 40

7 Steven Kwan 21 D — WARM 213 0.059 83.6 1.6% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 6.5% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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