TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.40×

WSH @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:40p

+12 ↑

7:40p

+12 ↑

8:40p

+10 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +12

Best of game Bryce Harper conv 28 · vs Littell ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 67 · vs Luzardo → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Zack Littell RHP · WSH

leak 95

2.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Harper +255 B ●●●●○

2 Trea Turner +400 C ●●○○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +159 B ●●○○○

FADE Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 83

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams +575 C+ ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews +500 C ●●●○○

3 James Wood — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: 11.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 100.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Luzardo +575 0.267 · 89.7 · 8.2% 100.0% 33.3% F B O C+ 64

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Littell Edge +255 0.242 · 90.2 · 10.8% 18.2% 37.0% F B O B 71

· WSH Dylan Crews HOT vs Luzardo Edge +500 0.159 · 90.6 · 7.7% 20.0% 19.8% F B O C 51

· WSH James Wood vs Luzardo — 0.272 · 95.2 · 11.3% 8.3% 27.7% F B O C+ 68

· PHI Trea Turner vs Littell +400 0.154 · 88.8 · 8.3% 18.2% 13.2% F B O C 56

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Littell Edge +159 0.287 · 93.2 · 13.5% 0.0% 26.2% F B O B 76

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Littell Edge +500 0.155 · 89.2 · 8.5% 9.1% 11.7% F B O C 53

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Littell +500 0.137 · 90.6 · 7.3% 9.1% 10.2% F B O C 51

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Littell Edge +390 0.170 · 89.5 · 9.6% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Luzardo +750 0.167 · 88.0 · 7.0% 10.0% 14.4% F B O D 47

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.174 · 88.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 45

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Littell +500 0.136 · — · 7.3% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.150 · 88.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Littell Edge +850 0.082 · 86.5 · 2.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 38

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.041 · 84.5 · 1.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.3% ← leak BRK 37.6% OFF 19.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

James Wood L

20.5% 26.9% 10.5% 20.9% C+ 68 —

Cj Abrams L

11.4% 9.3% 13.6% 11.0% C+ 64 +575

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.8% 21.9% 5.9% 9.6% C 51 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L

8.6% 11.1% 3.7% 8.2% D 47 +750

108

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.4% 3.4% 2.6% 4.8% D 45 —

129

Jacob Young R Edge

8.3% 4.2% 3.2% 6.5% D 43 —

211

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.3% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.8% ← leak BRK 38.5% OFF 20.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

17.4% 14.9% 26.9% 17.7% B 76 +159

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.3% 14.0% 6.6% 11.3% B 71 +255

Neutral · 4

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.9% 14.1% 2.5% 8.9% C 57 +390

Trea Turner R

8.7% 4.7% 2.6% 6.7% C 56 +400

Bryson Stott L Edge

9.0% 4.6% 5.5% 7.1% C 53 +500

Alec Bohm R

4.8% 4.4% 9.1% 5.1% C 51 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

105

J.T. Realmuto R

4.3% 7.4% 6.2% 5.2% D 45 +500

161

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.8% usage) carries Littell's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Crews Schwarber Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Littell fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cj Abrams +575 · 64

Dylan Crews +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.17× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F open

+12

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

6:40p · peak

+12

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

7:40p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

8:40p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.40× 85°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 68 C+ — · 7 0.272 95.2 11.3% 40.9%vs LHP 413 26.6% 8.3% 27.7% 35

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 64 C+ +575 WARM 13 0.267 89.7 8.2% 20.8%vs LHP 396 42.9% 100.0% 33.3% 33

3 Dylan Crews 51 C +500 HOT 58 0.159 90.6 7.7% 20.0%vs LHP 406 18.8% 20.0% 19.8% 26

4 Daylen Lile 47 D +750 · 95 0.167 88.0 7.0% 5.0%vs LHP 402 9.1% 10.0% 14.4% 30

5 Keibert Ruiz 45 D — COOL 108 0.174 88.3 5.5% 23.1%vs LHP 377 10.2% 0.0% 14.4% 28

6 Jacob Young 43 D — COOL 129 0.150 88.6 6.3% 8.7%vs LHP 396 8.0% 0.0% 10.2% 20

7 Nasim Nunez 25 D — COOL 211 0.041 84.5 1.6% 7.1%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 35

vs Zack Littell · RHP 2.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 76 B +159 COOL 1 0.287 93.2 13.5% 41.2%vs RHP 403 23.5% 0.0% 26.2% 19

2 Bryce Harper 71 B +255 WARM 4 0.242 90.2 10.8% 35.9%vs RHP 401 19.6% 18.2% 37.0% 27

3 Brandon Marsh 57 C +390 COOL 37 0.170 89.5 9.6% 22.0%vs RHP 393 12.9% 0.0% 15.1% 28

4 Trea Turner 56 C +400 · 41 0.154 88.8 8.3% 21.3%vs RHP 393 14.3% 18.2% 13.2% 37

5 Bryson Stott 53 C +500 WARM 52 0.155 89.2 8.5% 9.5%vs RHP 389 7.8% 9.1% 11.7% 25

6 Alec Bohm 51 C +500 WARM 60 0.137 90.6 7.3% 17.1%vs RHP 396 11.5% 9.1% 10.2% 37

7 J.T. Realmuto 45 D +500 WARM 105 0.136 — 7.3% 20.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 21

8 Justin Crawford 38 D +850 COOL 161 0.082 86.5 2.9% 5.3%vs RHP 382 2.6% 0.0% 9.2% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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