TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.21×

CWS @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +7

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 29 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Ceddanne Rafaela conv 35 · vs Martin → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 99

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +350 C ●●●●○

3 Andrew Benintendi — D ●●●○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 10

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ceddanne Rafaela +525 D ●●●●●

2 Wilyer Abreu +400 D ●●○○○

3 Willson Contreras +350 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 33.0% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Sandoval +400 0.302 · 94.3 · 11.3% 25.0% 33.0% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Sandoval Edge +350 0.242 · 90.7 · 9.6% 25.0% 26.7% F B O C 58

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Sandoval +400 0.234 · 89.2 · 9.0% 9.1% 20.0% F B O C 53

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Martin +350 0.255 · 90.6 · 9.6% 7.7% 17.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Martin +525 0.188 · 86.5 · 5.7% 53.8% 16.6% F B O D 45

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Sandoval — 0.186 · 88.8 · 7.5% 20.0% 21.9% F B O D 47

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Martin Edge +400 0.188 · 89.7 · 8.9% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 45

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Sandoval Edge — 0.118 · 88.0 · 5.5% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 34

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Sandoval — 0.131 · 87.8 · 6.3% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 36

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Martin Edge +525 0.144 · 89.2 · 7.9% 7.7% 9.0% F B O D 38

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Martin +700 0.194 · 89.1 · 7.8% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 42

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Martin Edge +850 0.124 · 88.3 · 4.5% 7.7% 6.6% F B O D 32

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Sandoval — 0.150 · 87.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Martin +850 0.150 · 84.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.041 · 90.5 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.036 · 89.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.2% BRK 31.2% OFF 21.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L

22.2% 19.0% 19.0% 20.6% C+ 63 +400

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.7% 12.6% 12.5% 14.5% C 58 +350

Colson Montgomery L

12.7% 12.1% 14.3% 12.7% C 53 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L

12.7% 4.9% 5.8% 9.0% D 47 —

176

Sam Antonacci L

8.5% 5.7% 0.0% 6.6% D 36 —

180

Tristan Peters L

6.0% 5.4% 0.0% 5.0% D 35 —

186

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.0% 6.6% 4.2% 4.7% D 34 —

209

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.3% 0.0% 3.2% 2.2% D 27 —

210

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

4.1% 5.0% 0.0% 3.7% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Sandoval's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.2% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.9% 16.1% 21.9% 14.1% C 53 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

110

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.1% 12.2% 12.5% 12.2% D 45 +400

113

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.8% 5.3% 13.3% 5.6% D 45 +525

140

Andruw Monasterio R

8.1% 9.4% 16.7% 9.3% D 42 +700

162

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.2% 6.7% 8.2% 9.9% D 38 +525

197

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.1% 0.0% 2.4% 3.1% D 32 +850

201

Caleb Durbin R

2.6% 1.4% 3.3% 2.3% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.2% usage) carries Martin's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Benintendi Abreu Rafaela

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Munetaka Murakami +400 · 63

Miguel Vargas +350 · 58

Andrew Benintendi — · 47

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph out 80°F open

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

7:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

8:10p

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 80°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 63 C+ +400 · 19 0.302 94.3 11.3% 25.0%vs LHP 406 17.5% 25.0% 33.0% 30

2 Miguel Vargas 58 C +350 WARM 33 0.242 90.7 9.6% 27.3%vs LHP 391 21.3% 25.0% 26.7% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 53 C +400 COOL 47 0.234 89.2 9.0% 32.0%vs LHP 399 23.6% 9.1% 20.0% 26

4 Andrew Benintendi 47 D — COOL 92 0.186 88.8 7.5% 14.0% 390 14.9% 20.0% 21.9% 24

5 Sam Antonacci 36 D — WARM 176 0.131 87.8 6.3% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.8% 10.0% 7.1% 32

6 Tristan Peters 35 D — COOL 180 0.150 87.1 5.6% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.5% 0.0% 8.2% 28

7 Chase Meidroth 34 D — WARM 186 0.118 88.0 5.5% 11.1%vs LHP 380 7.4% 16.7% 7.9% 36

8 Edgar Quero 27 D — COOL 209 0.041 90.5 3.8% 9.5%vs LHP 389 4.2% 0.0% 6.9% 20

9 Luisangel Acuna 25 D — COOL 210 0.036 89.0 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 12

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 53 C +350 · 49 0.255 90.6 9.6% 34.0%vs RHP 406 20.4% 7.7% 17.2% 18

2 Wilyer Abreu 45 D +400 COOL 110 0.188 89.7 8.9% 13.6%vs RHP 406 14.8% 15.4% 12.4% 33

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 45 D +525 HOT 113 0.188 86.5 5.7% 17.5%vs RHP 376 14.0% 53.8% 16.6% 39

4 Andruw Monasterio 42 D +700 COOL 140 0.194 89.1 7.8% 3.2%vs RHP 390 16.7% 8.3% 8.1% 29

5 Jarren Duran 38 D +525 COOL 162 0.144 89.2 7.9% 26.7%vs RHP 398 12.5% 7.7% 9.0% 37

6 Masataka Yoshida 32 D +850 WARM 197 0.124 88.3 4.5% 9.1%vs RHP 367 11.5% 7.7% 6.6% 34

7 Caleb Durbin 30 D +850 COOL 201 0.150 84.2 3.9% 20.0%vs RHP 373 8.7% 0.0% 8.1% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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