TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.52×

TOR @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 11 mph out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+17 ↑

7:10p

+16 ↑

8:10p

+15 ↑

9:10p

+13 ↑

10:10p

+12 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +17

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 38 · vs Yesavage ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 13 · vs Wesneski → edge: Jeremy Peña

ATTACK Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 37

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +525 C ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker +425 C ●●●●○

3 Yainer Diaz +625 D ●●●●○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.82 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +400 C ●●○○○

2 George Springer +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jesús Sánchez +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jeremy Peña: 5.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 45.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Jeremy Peña ✶ HOT vs Yesavage +525 0.207 · 88.5 · 6.0% 45.5% 29.8% F B O C 56

· HOU Christian Walker vs Yesavage +425 0.222 · 89.5 · 8.0% 20.0% 31.6% F B O C 59

· — Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Wesneski +400 0.218 · 90.6 · 9.9% 9.1% 17.8% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Yesavage Edge +225 0.321 · 94.7 · 10.9% 0.0% 23.5% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Yesavage +625 0.163 · 87.9 · 6.2% 25.0% 23.1% F B O D 48

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Yesavage +500 0.168 · 86.5 · 6.2% 27.3% 20.0% F B O D 49

· — George Springer vs Wesneski +500 0.172 · 88.7 · 7.5% 16.7% 9.7% F B O D 48

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Yesavage +700 0.158 · 89.5 · 8.6% 11.1% 12.0% F B O D 49

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Yesavage +575 0.151 · 85.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 39

· — Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Wesneski Edge +500 0.161 · 90.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Yesavage — 0.112 · 86.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 33

· — Brandon Valenzuela vs Wesneski Edge — 0.162 · 88.1 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· — Nathan Lukes COOL vs Wesneski Edge +850 0.107 · 86.5 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 34

· — Andres Gimenez COOL vs Wesneski Edge +750 0.119 · 85.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 35

· — Ernie Clement COOL vs Wesneski +850 0.126 · 85.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.4% ← leak OFF 29.0% BRK 24.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.2% 9.2% 24.1% 18.4% C+ 63 +225

Christian Walker R

8.5% 15.2% 10.4% 9.9% C 59 +425

Jeremy Peña R

4.0% 12.5% 6.6% 5.5% C 56 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

7.7% 2.2% 3.7% 5.9% D 49 +500

Cam Smith R

8.9% 18.5% 15.0% 11.2% D 49 +700

Yainer Diaz R

6.9% 7.4% 3.4% 5.8% D 48 +625

154

Jose Altuve R

6.0% 0.0% 5.7% 5.4% D 39 +575

191

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.4% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 35.4% ← leak Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

7.8% 13.3% C 57 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

George Springer R

6.1% 7.6% D 48 +500

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

19.6% 10.7% D 47 +500

111

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

15.4% 8.4% D 45 —

177

Ernie Clement R

2.5% 2.4% D 36 +850

178

Andres Gimenez L Edge

2.5% 3.8% D 35 +750

188

Nathan Lukes L Edge

2.0% 1.0% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the breaking family (35.4% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Peña Paredes Diaz Okamoto Springer

Legend

attack side — vs Yesavage fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jeremy Peña +525 · 56

Christian Walker +425 · 59

Yainer Diaz +625 · 48

Isaac Paredes +500 · 49

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.09× Wind 11 mph out 88°F retractable

+17

↑

13 mph · out

88°F

7:10p · peak

+16

↑

12 mph · out

87°F

8:10p

+15

↑

11 mph · out

85°F

9:10p

+13

↑

10 mph · out

84°F

10:10p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.52× 88°F, wind 11 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ +225 COOL 18 0.321 94.7 10.9% 28.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 31

2 Christian Walker 59 C +425 · 31 0.222 89.5 8.0% 27.3%vs RHP 391 19.0% 20.0% 31.6% 24

3 Jeremy Peña ✶ 56 C +525 HOT 39 0.207 88.5 6.0% 28.2%vs RHP 387 16.7% 45.5% 29.8% 36

4 Isaac Paredes 49 D +500 COOL 74 0.168 86.5 6.2% 18.8%vs RHP 377 12.1% 27.3% 20.0% 39

5 Cam Smith 49 D +700 COOL 77 0.158 89.5 8.6% 18.4%vs RHP 411 12.0% 11.1% 12.0% 23

6 Yainer Diaz 48 D +625 WARM 81 0.163 87.9 6.2% 26.7%vs RHP 398 11.3% 25.0% 23.1% 22

7 Jose Altuve 39 D +575 COOL 154 0.151 85.6 5.9% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 36

8 Christian Vazquez 33 D — COOL 191 0.112 86.0 2.9% 13.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 14

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.82 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 57 C +400 COOL 34 0.218 90.6 9.9% 30.6%vs RHP 397 18.7% 9.1% 17.8% 30

2 George Springer 48 D +500 · 88 0.172 88.7 7.5% 23.9%vs RHP 393 11.7% 16.7% 9.7% 41

3 Jesús Sánchez 47 D +500 COOL 96 0.161 90.8 8.8% 21.6%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.1% 2

4 Brandon Valenzuela 45 D — · 111 0.162 88.1 7.7% 22.2%vs RHP 394 10.3% 0.0% 9.0% 11

5 Ernie Clement 36 D +850 COOL 177 0.126 85.0 4.2% 6.7%vs RHP 375 7.6% 0.0% 5.8% 44

6 Andres Gimenez 35 D +750 COOL 178 0.119 85.9 5.2% 10.4%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 24

7 Nathan Lukes 34 D +850 COOL 188 0.107 86.5 2.7% 12.2%vs RHP 378 5.8% 0.0% 6.4% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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