TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.16×

SF @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 6 mph out 100°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

+4 ↑

9:05p

+4 ↑

10:05p

+7 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +7

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 22 · vs Gore ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 25 · vs Tidwell → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 34

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +390 C ●●●○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +475 D ●○○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Blade Tidwell RHP

leak 10

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +320 C ●●●●○

2 Wyatt Langford +330 D ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +350 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Tidwell Edge +320 0.255 · 92.0 · 9.1% 25.0% 24.4% F B O C 55

· SF Rafael Devers vs Gore +390 0.231 · 92.2 · 10.1% 25.0% 18.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Wyatt Langford vs Tidwell +330 0.230 · 89.6 · 7.7% 25.0% 20.7% F B O D 49

· — Jake Burger vs Tidwell +350 0.185 · 90.0 · 8.9% 20.0% 15.8% F B O D 46

· — Ezequiel Duran vs Tidwell +625 0.172 · 88.5 · 6.8% 16.7% 10.1% F B O D 40

· — Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Tidwell Edge +390 0.166 · 92.2 · 9.0% 16.7% 9.6% F B O D 42

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Gore +475 0.189 · 92.5 · 10.7% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 47

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Gore +950 0.133 · 87.0 · 4.7% 9.1% 6.6% F B O D 30

· — Corey Seager vs Tidwell Edge +305 0.188 · 91.2 · 10.6% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Gore Edge +425 0.193 · 87.6 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 43

· — Evan Carter vs Tidwell Edge +575 0.142 · 88.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Gore +850 0.115 · 86.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 28

· — Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.042 · 86.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.2% ← leak BRK 29.7% OFF 11.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

12.6% 9.3% 8.8% 11.0% C 53 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L

12.7% 6.1% 17.2% 12.2% D 47 +475

127

Willy Adames R Edge

8.2% 9.1% 11.1% 8.7% D 43 +425

202

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.5% 2.7% 0.0% 2.3% D 30 +950

207

Drew Gilbert L

2.7% 4.8% 0.0% 2.7% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.2% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.8% ← leak BRK 40.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.0% 13.3% 11.5% C 55 +320

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Wyatt Langford R

5.4% 13.5% 8.8% D 49 +330

100

Jake Burger R

10.4% 12.5% 11.1% D 46 +350

109

Corey Seager L Edge

15.1% 15.2% 15.7% D 45 +305

137

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.4% 17.5% 11.5% D 42 +390

151

Ezequiel Duran R

7.8% 6.5% 6.4% D 40 +625

187

Evan Carter L Edge

7.8% 5.0% 5.7% D 34 +575

214

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.6% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.8% usage) carries Tidwell's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Pederson Langford Burger Nimmo Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +320 · 55

Rafael Devers +390 · 53

Wyatt Langford +330 · 49

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.89× Wind 6 mph out 100°F retractable

↑

6 mph · out

99°F

7:05p

↑

5 mph · out

97°F

8:05p

↑

5 mph · out

95°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · out

92°F

10:05p

↑

8 mph · out

89°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 100°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 53 C +390 · 48 0.231 92.2 10.1% 12.1%vs LHP 399 18.4% 25.0% 18.8% 37

2 Bryce Eldridge 47 D +475 COOL 99 0.189 92.5 10.7% 13.3%vs LHP 396 19.6% 8.3% 9.6% 29

3 Willy Adames 43 D +425 COOL 127 0.193 87.6 8.9% 12.0%vs LHP 388 14.8% 0.0% 10.8% 31

4 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D +950 COOL 202 0.133 87.0 4.7% 11.8%vs LHP 375 5.0% 9.1% 6.6% 32

5 Drew Gilbert 28 D +850 HOT 207 0.115 86.0 4.9% 7.4% 398 3.1% 0.0% 6.0% 18

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 55 C +320 COOL 46 0.255 92.0 9.1% 31.8%vs RHP 394 22.1% 25.0% 24.4% 24

2 Wyatt Langford 49 D +330 WARM 73 0.230 89.6 7.7% 21.9%vs RHP 401 18.1% 25.0% 20.7% 33

3 Jake Burger 46 D +350 WARM 100 0.185 90.0 8.9% 24.6%vs RHP 398 16.0% 20.0% 15.8% 26

4 Corey Seager 45 D +305 WARM 109 0.188 91.2 10.6% 25.7%vs RHP 394 16.7% 0.0% 13.0% 6

5 Brandon Nimmo 42 D +390 COOL 137 0.166 92.2 9.0% 12.3%vs RHP 404 9.9% 16.7% 9.6% 33

6 Ezequiel Duran 40 D +625 · 151 0.172 88.5 6.8% 22.2%vs RHP 392 13.0% 16.7% 10.1% 37

7 Evan Carter 34 D +575 · 187 0.142 88.0 6.4% 14.8%vs RHP 374 9.1% 0.0% 6.9% 22

8 Alejandro Osuna 21 D — COOL 214 0.042 86.6 2.1% 5.0%vs RHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 5.5% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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