TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.25×

ATH @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 6 mph slight_out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+6 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+6 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +6 FIT

Best of game Nick Kurtz conv 21 · vs Singer ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 42 · vs Ginn → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 91

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Kurtz — C+ ●●●○○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +290 C+ ●●○○○

3 Lawrence Butler +390 D ●●○○○

FADE J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 67

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +310 C+ ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +350 C+ ●●●●●

3 Elly De La Cruz +290 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Ginn Edge +310 0.237 · 88.9 · 8.5% 50.0% 33.7% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Ginn +350 0.225 · 90.6 · 9.5% 41.7% 29.3% F B O C+ 65

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.226 · 93.4 · 12.6% 12.5% 28.6% F B O C+ 69

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Ginn Edge +290 0.224 · 94.3 · 9.7% 15.4% 21.8% F B O C+ 62

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Singer Edge +290 0.217 · 90.2 · 9.3% 8.3% 17.9% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Ginn +350 0.187 · 88.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 25.0% F B O C 50

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Ginn +425 0.161 · 91.0 · 8.5% 9.1% 13.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Singer Edge +390 0.115 · 89.2 · 8.0% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 47

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Singer +575 0.122 · 84.1 · 4.6% 9.1% 10.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Singer +525 0.092 · 90.0 · 7.4% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Singer Edge +425 0.152 · 90.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 49

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Singer Edge +575 0.081 · 86.3 · 3.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 36

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.083 · 87.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Ginn +525 0.131 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.6% ← leak BRK 42.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L Edge

16.4% 21.4% 18.0% C+ 69 —

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.1% 16.9% 9.6% C+ 61 +290

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.8% 4.5% 7.3% D 49 +425

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.4% 12.8% 6.7% D 47 +390

102

Henry Bolte R

7.8% 7.5% 7.4% D 46 +525

130

Jacob Wilson R

3.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 43 +575

169

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.6% 1.8% 1.1% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.6% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.0% ← leak OFF 20.3% BRK 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.9% 10.3% 10.0% 13.9% C+ 65 +350

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.6% 3.7% 10.9% 14.3% C+ 62 +290

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.4% 5.8% 8.0% 10.4% C+ 61 +310

Tyler Stephenson R

13.9% 6.2% 7.0% 11.2% C 51 +425

Eugenio Suarez R

12.4% 6.7% 5.6% 10.5% C 50 +350

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

116

Matt Mclain R

9.9% 0.0% 9.5% 8.9% D 44 +525

166

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 4.0% 2.5% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Kurtz Soderstrom Stewart Cruz Bleday

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jj Bleday +310 · 61

Sal Stewart +350 · 65

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 6 mph slight_out 82°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

83°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

80°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 69 C+ — COOL 5 0.226 93.4 12.6% 41.7%vs RHP 412 20.0% 12.5% 28.6% 7

2 Tyler Soderstrom 61 C+ +290 WARM 25 0.217 90.2 9.3% 20.4%vs RHP 405 15.5% 8.3% 17.9% 33

3 Carlos Cortes 49 D +425 COOL 78 0.152 90.0 8.0% 16.3%vs RHP 403 5.1% 0.0% 11.9% 12

4 Lawrence Butler 47 D +390 WARM 98 0.115 89.2 8.0% 17.6%vs RHP 405 4.3% 9.1% 10.5% 26

5 Henry Bolte 46 D +525 WARM 102 0.092 90.0 7.4% 5.0%vs RHP 422 9.7% 9.1% 8.5% 21

6 Jacob Wilson 43 D +575 · 130 0.122 84.1 4.6% 16.1%vs RHP 386 7.3% 9.1% 10.1% 40

7 Jeff Mcneil 36 D +575 WARM 169 0.081 86.3 3.1% 8.7%vs RHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 9.2% 33

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 65 C+ +350 · 11 0.225 90.6 9.5% 23.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 41.7% 29.3% 30

2 Elly De La Cruz 62 C+ +290 · 21 0.224 94.3 9.7% 19.2%vs RHP 398 16.5% 15.4% 21.8% 33

3 Jj Bleday 61 C+ +310 WARM 22 0.237 88.9 8.5% 24.6%vs RHP 387 20.0% 50.0% 33.7% 27

4 Tyler Stephenson 51 C +425 HOT 59 0.161 91.0 8.5% 18.2%vs RHP 395 8.0% 9.1% 13.1% 18

5 Eugenio Suarez 50 C +350 HOT 62 0.187 88.6 8.0% 25.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 17

6 Matt Mclain 44 D +525 COOL 116 0.131 88.5 7.6% 10.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 9

7 Tj Friedl 37 D — COOL 166 0.083 87.4 4.1% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.