Today · 2026-08-03

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 6 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Yordan Alvarez vs Shane Bieber FIP 6.38 HR/FB 20.0% #2 James Wood vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.16 HR/FB 25.0% #4 Cj Abrams vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.16 HR/FB 25.0% #9 Pro pick vs Shane Bieber FIP 6.38 HR/FB 40.0% #12 Pro pick vs Cristian Javier FIP 5.4 HR/FB 30.8% #15 Pro pick vs Shane Bieber FIP 6.38 HR/FB 40.0%

📦 STACK Shane Bieber FIP 6.38 HR/FB 20.0% → #1 Yordan Alvarez, #9 Pro pick, #15 Pro pick

📦 STACK Aaron Nola FIP 5.16 HR/FB 25.0% → #2 James Wood, #4 Cj Abrams

📦 STACK WSH Bullpen Proxy FIP 4.83 HR/FB 15.2% → #3 Kyle Schwarber, #10 Pro pick

📦 STACK Ian Seymour FIP 4.08 HR/FB 10.5% → #5 Hunter Goodman, #8 Pro pick

📦 STACK Matthew Boyd FIP 3.61 HR/FB 16.7% → #11 Pro pick, #13 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-08-02. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.1% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	James Wood (L) ³	76	-10.1	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%14.5% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-26 OffKevin Ginkel Exit Velo109.6 mph Angle25.0° Distance418 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.26 FIP3.87 IP953.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-17 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Kyle Schwarber (L)	79	-12.9	●	WSH Bullpen Proxy WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	33	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%17.7% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	16d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffSean Manaea Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle41.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	3.7×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.43 FIP4.83 IP972.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-12 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Cj Abrams (L) ⁵	74	-5.8	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-07-21 OffMichael Lorenzen Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance434 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○●●	0.0×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.26 FIP3.87 IP953.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-15 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
4	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁴	74	-9.9	●	Ian Seymour (LHP) TB @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-08-01 OffAlex Lange Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle34.0° Distance424 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.20 FIP4.08 IP974.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-87 Weather · Coors Field hot air · strong wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88°F Wind14 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-87 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph N (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁴	72	-9.0	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	35	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%13.5% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-22 OffSandy Alcantara Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance394 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○○	3.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.03 FIP3.82 IP912.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+37 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (L) ³	70	-11.3	●	Michael McGreevy (RHP) STL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/90.97 FIP4.12 IP969.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+22 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind9 mph NW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note77°F, wind 9 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (R) ³	69	-11.0	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) TB @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.46 FIP4.89 IP944.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-85 Weather · Coors Field hot air · strong wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88°F Wind14 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-85 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph N (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Pro pick (L) ³	67	-4.0	●	Ian Seymour (LHP) TB @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.20 FIP4.08 IP974.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-71 Weather · Coors Field hot air · strong wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88°F Wind14 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-71 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph N (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (L) ³	70	-8.9	●	WSH Bullpen Proxy WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.43 FIP4.83 IP972.3000000000001 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-18 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-18 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
10	Pro pick (R) ³	66	-4.5	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.03 FIP3.82 IP912.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (L) ³	64	-9.2	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.49 FIP4.67 IP900.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-8 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind7 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Pro pick (R) ³	64	-8.4	●	Cristian Javier (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.38 FIP4.83 IP988.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (L) ³	63	·	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.49 FIP4.67 IP900.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-10 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind7 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Pro pick (R) ³	63	-0.4	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%7.4% Avg EV88.5 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.03 FIP3.82 IP912.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (L) ³	66	-4.3	●	LAD Bullpen Proxy LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.22 FIP4.08 IP1001.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-19 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind7 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (L) ³	62	-10.3	●	Brandon Sproat (RHP) PIT @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/90.99 FIP3.55 IP959.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-17 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78°F Wind6 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note78°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (L) ³	61	-6.5	●	Bubba Chandler (RHP) PIT @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.07 FIP4.02 IP987.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-17 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78°F Wind6 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note78°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (R) ³	60	-6.2	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) SD @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.22 FIP4.46 IP961.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Chase Field hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp106°F Wind12 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note106°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (R) ³	59	-3.9	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.26 FIP3.87 IP953.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-24 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-24 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (R) ³	59	-2.6	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) SD @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.22 FIP4.46 IP961.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Chase Field hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp106°F Wind12 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note106°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (L) ³	58	-7.2	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.13 FIP4.26 IP967.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Chase Field hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp106°F Wind12 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note106°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (R) ³	56	-2.5	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.03 FIP3.82 IP912.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+33 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (R) ³	55	-2.7	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%7.6% Avg EV87.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.03 FIP3.82 IP912.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 8 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (R) ³	55	-6.7	●	Shane Bieber (RHP) TOR @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%7.6% Avg EV86.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.03 FIP3.82 IP912.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · strong wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind14 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (L) ³	55	-5.4	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) WSH @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV88.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.26 FIP3.87 IP953.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-14 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind6 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (L) ³	54	-0.3	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) LAD @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.9% HR/91.49 FIP4.67 IP900.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-11 Weather · Wrigley Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind7 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (L) ³	54	-7.9	●	Logan Webb (RHP) SF @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SF Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/90.98 FIP4.23 IP956.5 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-10 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp97°F Wind3 mph E Charactercross HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note97°F, wind 3 mph E (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (S) ³	54	-5.3	●	Brandon Sproat (RHP) PIT @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/90.99 FIP3.55 IP959.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-15 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp78°F Wind6 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note78°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Pro pick (S) ³	54	-7.9	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.13 FIP4.26 IP967.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Chase Field hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp106°F Wind12 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note106°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (R) ³	53	·	●	Michael McGreevy (RHP) STL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV86.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/90.97 FIP4.12 IP969.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-3 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind9 mph NW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note77°F, wind 9 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

14.9%

▼ -0.5 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 15.1% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-08-02

27 HRs

22%

6 caught / 27 HRs

in top 50

#8 Matt Olson

35.8%

🔵

#16 Bryce Harper

28.4%

🔵

#21 Sal Stewart

24.6%

🔵

#34 Miguel Vargas

15.8%

🟠

#36 Wilyer Abreu

16.0%

🟠

#43 Ceddanne Rafaela

25.3%

🟠

Missed

Jeremy Peña Jake McCarthy Jarren Duran Cal Raleigh Tyler Stephenson +16 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Matt Olson ×5 Sal Stewart ×4 Bryce Harper ×2 JJ Bleday ×2 Ceddanne Rafaela ×2

❄️ Cold

Drake Baldwin 0 of 8d Elly De La Cruz 0 of 8d Ben Rice 0 of 7d Nathaniel Lowe 0 of 7d James Wood 0 of 7d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.5%

B 19.9%

C+ 17.0%

C 13.5%

D 8.8%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-08-03

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.