TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.58×

SD @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 12 mph out 106°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+16 ↑

6:40p

+16 ↑

7:40p

+14 ↑

8:40p

+13 ↑

9:40p

+12 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +16

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 17 · vs King ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 27 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 61

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +625 D ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +400 C ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 4

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +525 C ●●●●○

2 Manny Machado +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ty France +525 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 11.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Pfaadt Edge +525 0.154 · 90.0 · 9.7% 33.3% 20.1% F B O C 53

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Pfaadt +400 0.219 · 90.6 · 9.9% 23.1% 23.5% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs King Edge +400 0.234 · 91.8 · 10.2% 15.4% 16.9% F B O C 58

· SD Ty France vs Pfaadt +525 0.244 · 92.4 · 10.1% 15.4% 16.8% F B O C 59

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs King Edge +400 0.197 · 90.5 · 9.4% 16.7% 12.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs King +625 0.181 · 85.1 · 7.7% 18.2% 15.2% F B O D 49

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs King +850 0.142 · 89.7 · 8.1% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 45

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs King Edge +850 0.128 · 87.1 · 5.1% 15.4% 8.0% F B O D 39

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +625 0.180 · 87.8 · 7.7% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 47

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +750 0.072 · 87.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 35

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs King Edge +750 0.122 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs King Edge — 0.135 · 87.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 38

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Pfaadt +750 0.101 · 88.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.4% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Manny Machado R

14.0% 6.8% 7.7% 11.1% C+ 60 +400

Ty France R

12.4% 12.1% 7.4% 11.6% C 59 +525

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.4% 10.8% 6.2% 10.6% C 53 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.2% 4.3% 1.9% 6.7% D 47 +625

Xander Bogaerts R

7.4% 2.6% 3.8% 5.8% D 38 +750

104

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

5.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.8% D 35 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.4% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.2% ← leak OFF 28.3% BRK 24.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.3% 12.1% 14.9% 12.1% C 58 +400

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.3% 3.8% 7.4% 10.2% C 54 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

10.2% 3.6% 2.3% 7.0% D 49 +625

Gabriel Moreno R

7.3% 9.4% 7.8% 7.7% D 45 +850

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 41 +750

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 2.5% 1.8% 3.3% D 39 +850

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 1.6% 1.7% 3.1% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.2% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado France Merrill Carroll Marte Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jackson Merrill +525 · 53

Manny Machado +400 · 60

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.06× Wind 12 mph out 106°F retractable

+16

↑

12 mph · out

106°F

6:40p · peak

+16

↑

11 mph · out

102°F

7:40p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

98°F

8:40p

+13

↑

10 mph · out

95°F

9:40p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

92°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.58× 106°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 60 C+ +400 WARM 18 0.219 90.6 9.9% 28.8%vs RHP 397 19.8% 23.1% 23.5% 40

2 Ty France 59 C +525 WARM 20 0.244 92.4 10.1% 33.3%vs RHP 394 17.9% 15.4% 16.8% 39

3 Jackson Merrill 53 C +525 WARM 32 0.154 90.0 9.7% 17.9%vs RHP 409 14.4% 33.3% 20.1% 38

4 Gavin Sheets 47 D +625 COOL 58 0.180 87.8 7.7% 28.8%vs RHP 397 10.3% 0.0% 15.7% 25

5 Xander Bogaerts 38 D +750 COOL 97 0.101 88.1 7.2% 15.4%vs RHP 396 7.8% 0.0% 7.2% 34

6 Jake Cronenworth 35 D +750 COOL 104 0.072 87.9 6.6% 13.0%vs RHP 389 1.6% 0.0% 9.5% 33

vs Michael King · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 58 C +400 WARM 21 0.234 91.8 10.2% 17.6%vs RHP 401 14.1% 15.4% 16.9% 37

2 Ketel Marte 54 C +400 COOL 29 0.197 90.5 9.4% 14.5%vs RHP 412 15.1% 16.7% 12.5% 42

3 Nolan Arenado 49 D +625 · 51 0.181 85.1 7.7% 19.2%vs RHP 391 13.7% 18.2% 15.2% 33

4 Gabriel Moreno 45 D +850 · 69 0.142 89.7 8.1% 14.9%vs RHP 400 9.0% 15.4% 9.2% 47

5 Adrian Del Castillo 41 D +750 COOL 83 0.122 88.5 7.6% 16.7%vs RHP 400 7.4% 0.0% 8.6% 14

6 Geraldo Perdomo 39 D +850 WARM 91 0.128 87.1 5.1% 11.3%vs RHP 382 8.2% 15.4% 8.0% 46

7 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D — WARM 95 0.135 87.5 5.2% 9.4%vs RHP 399 5.0% 0.0% 7.9% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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