TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ TEX

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SF @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 3 mph cross 97°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:05p

-2 ↑

8:05p

-2 ↑

9:05p

-3 ↑

10:05p

-3 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at -1

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 22 · vs Proxy ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 30 · vs Webb → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK TEX Bullpen Proxy

leak 60

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +320 C ●●●○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +330 C ●○○○○

3 Willy Adames +425 D ●○○○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 56

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +400 C ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +575 D ●●●●○

3 Wyatt Langford +500 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Webb Edge +400 0.258 · 92.0 · 8.2% 33.3% 26.8% F B O C 54

· — Rafael Devers vs Proxy +320 0.226 · 92.2 · 11.2% 23.1% 20.8% F B O C 55

· — Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Proxy +330 0.192 · 92.5 · 12.7% 7.7% 11.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TEX Jake Burger vs Webb +575 0.186 · 90.0 · 8.1% 27.3% 18.7% F B O D 45

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Webb +500 0.233 · 89.6 · 7.0% 23.1% 22.7% F B O D 47

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Webb — 0.174 · 88.5 · 6.1% 15.4% 10.7% F B O D 38

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Webb Edge +475 0.159 · 92.2 · 8.2% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 40

· — Willy Adames COOL vs Proxy +425 0.194 · 87.6 · 8.7% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 44

· — Heliot Ramos COOL vs Proxy +525 0.162 · 92.0 · 13.8% 7.7% 9.6% F B O D 47

· — Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Proxy +950 0.131 · 87.0 · 2.4% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 28

· TEX Corey Seager vs Webb Edge +400 0.191 · 91.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 44

· TEX Evan Carter vs Webb Edge +700 0.144 · 88.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· — Drew Gilbert HOT vs Proxy — 0.116 · 86.0 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

· — Luis Arraez vs Proxy — 0.118 · 87.0 · 0.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 22

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.042 · 86.6 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.7% ← leak OFF 25.4% BRK 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.0% 3.9% 13.3% 11.5% C 54 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Wyatt Langford R

5.5% 15.8% 12.0% 8.4% D 47 +500

Jake Burger R

10.6% 10.0% 12.6% 11.2% D 45 +575

Corey Seager L Edge

15.1% 17.9% 15.2% 15.7% D 44 +400

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.4% 9.1% 17.5% 11.5% D 40 +475

Ezequiel Duran R

7.8% 0.0% 6.7% 6.4% D 38 —

112

Evan Carter L Edge

7.8% 0.0% 5.0% 5.7% D 33 +700

120

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.6% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for TEX Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Langford Burger Duran Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Joc Pederson +400 · 54

Rafael Devers +320 · 55

Jake Burger +575 · 45

Wyatt Langford +500 · 47

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 3 mph cross 97°F retractable

-1

↑

3 mph · cross

97°F

7:05p · peak

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

94°F

8:05p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

92°F

9:05p

-3

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5 mph · cross

89°F

10:05p

-3

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5 mph · cross

88°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 97°F, wind 3 mph E (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 54 C +400 · 27 0.258 92.0 8.2% 31.8%vs RHP 394 22.1% 33.3% 26.8% 25

2 Wyatt Langford 47 D +500 WARM 57 0.233 89.6 7.0% 21.9%vs RHP 401 18.1% 23.1% 22.7% 36

3 Jake Burger 45 D +575 WARM 66 0.186 90.0 8.1% 24.6%vs RHP 398 16.0% 27.3% 18.7% 28

4 Corey Seager 44 D +400 WARM 70 0.191 91.2 9.7% 25.7%vs RHP 394 16.7% 0.0% 14.6% 6

5 Brandon Nimmo 40 D +475 COOL 87 0.159 92.2 8.2% 12.3%vs RHP 404 9.9% 15.4% 9.8% 34

6 Ezequiel Duran 38 D — · 93 0.174 88.5 6.1% 22.2%vs RHP 392 13.0% 15.4% 10.7% 38

7 Evan Carter 33 D +700 · 112 0.144 88.0 5.8% 14.8%vs RHP 374 9.1% 0.0% 7.7% 26

8 Alejandro Osuna 20 D — COOL 120 0.042 86.6 1.9% 5.0%vs RHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 6.0% 19

vs TEX Bullpen Proxy 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 55 C +320 · 40 0.226 92.2 11.2% 18.5% 399 18.4% 23.1% 20.8% 39

2 Bryce Eldridge 50 C +330 COOL 62 0.192 92.5 12.7% 17.7% 396 19.6% 7.7% 11.2% 29

3 Heliot Ramos 47 D +525 COOL 77 0.162 92.0 13.8% 18.4% 407 10.7% 7.7% 9.6% 37

4 Willy Adames 44 D +425 COOL 85 0.194 87.6 8.7% 13.8% 388 14.8% 7.7% 10.8% 34

5 Jung Hoo Lee 28 D +950 COOL 118 0.131 87.0 2.4% 7.2% 375 5.0% 8.3% 6.6% 36

6 Drew Gilbert 27 D — HOT 119 0.116 86.0 2.7% 7.4% 398 3.1% 0.0% 6.6% 22

7 Luis Arraez 22 D — WARM 121 0.118 87.0 0.7% 2.9% 367 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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