TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.13×

TB @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 14 mph in 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -5

Best of game Nick Fortes conv 21 · vs Lorenzen ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 29 · vs Seymour → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 42

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Fortes — D ●●●○○

2 Cedric Mullins +370 C ●●●○○

3 Junior Caminero +265 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 30

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Hunter Goodman +255 B ●●●●○

3 Willi Castro +500 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Seymour +400 0.278 · 89.5 · 10.0% 22.2% 35.5% F B O C+ 67

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Seymour Edge +255 0.301 · 90.8 · 12.4% 20.0% 37.4% F B O B 74

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +370 0.156 · 87.8 · 6.0% 20.0% 20.3% F B O C 52

· COL Willi Castro vs Seymour Edge +500 0.151 · 88.0 · 8.5% 22.2% 17.7% F B O C 52

· TB Junior Caminero vs Lorenzen +265 0.262 · 93.0 · 10.9% 7.7% 23.0% F B O C+ 69

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Seymour +700 0.196 · 84.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 50

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Lorenzen Edge +370 0.152 · 91.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 53

· COL Kyle Karros vs Seymour Edge +475 0.162 · 89.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Lorenzen — 0.105 · 85.8 · 4.6% 28.6% 14.3% F B O D 44

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Lorenzen — 0.075 · 87.3 · 3.8% 11.1% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TB Richie Palacios vs Lorenzen Edge +625 0.106 · 85.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 43

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Seymour +525 0.169 · 83.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 46

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Lorenzen +500 0.161 · 90.7 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 48

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Seymour — 0.108 · 89.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 38

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Lorenzen Edge — 0.060 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 27

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Seymour Edge +700 0.069 · 87.7 · 3.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 34

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +950 0.069 · 85.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Seymour Edge +525 0.121 · 87.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 27.1% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Junior Caminero R

17.2% 10.6% 6.1% 13.2% C+ 69 +265

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.0% 13.8% 5.6% 10.7% C 53 +370

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.1% 3.7% 8.3% 4.0% C 52 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Yandy Diaz R

5.3% 10.6% 4.5% 7.0% D 48 +500

Nick Fortes R

3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 44 —

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.8% 2.1% 3.7% 3.9% D 43 +625

Ben Williamson R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 38 —

100

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 37 +950

116

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.2% ← leak OFF 30.5% BRK 27.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

19.8% 7.1% 15.7% 16.9% B 74 +255

Neutral · 4

Mickey Moniak L

9.0% 2.4% 22.5% 10.5% C+ 67 +400

Willi Castro S Edge

9.4% 6.4% 6.5% 8.0% C 52 +500

Jake Mccarthy L

5.9% 7.5% 1.5% 5.1% C 50 +700

Kyle Karros R Edge

7.8% 13.6% 5.0% 7.6% C 50 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tj Rumfield L

6.1% 5.8% 2.0% 4.8% D 46 +525

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.0% 4.3% 7.4% 6.4% D 44 +525

Troy Johnston L

2.6% 0.0% 2.5% 2.0% D 38 —

107

Tyler Freeman R Edge

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 34 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.2% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Mullins Fortes Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Lorenzen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Mickey Moniak +400 · 67

Hunter Goodman +255 · 74

Cedric Mullins +370 · 52

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 14 mph in 88°F open

-5

↑

14 mph · in

88°F

6:40p · peak

-5

↑

14 mph · in

83°F

7:40p

-5

↑

14 mph · in

78°F

8:40p

-5

↑

14 mph · in

75°F

9:40p

-6

↑

14 mph · in

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 88°F, wind 14 mph N (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 69 C+ +265 · 7 0.262 93.0 10.9% 38.3%vs RHP 410 25.9% 7.7% 23.0% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 53 C +370 · 31 0.152 91.0 9.7% 18.2%vs RHP 387 11.7% 0.0% 13.7% 32

3 Cedric Mullins 52 C +370 COOL 36 0.156 87.8 6.0% 21.3%vs RHP 389 14.0% 20.0% 20.3% 29

4 Yandy Diaz 48 D +500 COOL 55 0.161 90.7 7.9% 21.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 42

5 Nick Fortes 44 D — WARM 71 0.105 85.8 4.6% 14.3%vs RHP 396 5.1% 28.6% 14.3% 27

6 Richie Palacios 43 D +625 WARM 79 0.106 85.8 5.9% 12.1%vs RHP 394 3.6% 0.0% 14.7% 15

7 Ben Williamson 38 D — COOL 98 0.075 87.3 3.8% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.9% 11.1% 9.0% 28

8 Taylor Walls 37 D +950 COOL 100 0.069 85.2 4.8% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 16

9 Chandler Simpson 27 D — COOL 116 0.060 83.8 — 3.2%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 41

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 74 B +255 COOL 4 0.301 90.8 12.4% 36.4%vs LHP 411 24.7% 20.0% 37.4% 20

2 Mickey Moniak 67 C+ +400 COOL 8 0.278 89.5 10.0% 20.0%vs LHP 417 16.7% 22.2% 35.5% 27

3 Willi Castro 52 C +500 WARM 37 0.151 88.0 8.5% 12.5%vs LHP 412 10.8% 22.2% 17.7% 24

4 Jake Mccarthy 50 C +700 COOL 48 0.196 84.8 6.8% 20.0%vs LHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 18.9% 39

5 Kyle Karros 50 C +475 · 50 0.162 89.7 8.6% 5.0%vs LHP 417 10.5% 0.0% 9.9% 19

6 Tj Rumfield 46 D +525 COOL 63 0.169 83.6 6.8% 8.7%vs LHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 13.9% 32

7 Ezequiel Tovar 44 D +525 COOL 73 0.121 87.3 7.6% 3.9%vs LHP 410 7.2% 0.0% 7.9% 19

8 Troy Johnston 38 D — COOL 94 0.108 89.7 4.3% 4.8%vs LHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 10.1% 21

9 Tyler Freeman 34 D +700 COOL 107 0.069 87.7 3.6% 11.8%vs LHP 369 2.0% 0.0% 9.0% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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