TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.16×

LAD @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:05p

+1 ↑

8:05p

+1 ↑

9:05p

+2 ↑

10:05p

+4 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +4

Best of game Max Muncy conv 31 · vs Boyd ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 26 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 78

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing +625 C ●●●○○

3 Shohei Ohtani +320 C+ ●●●○○

FADE LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 60

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +400 C ●●●●○

3 Nico Hoerner +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 28.7% · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy vs Boyd — 0.241 · 90.2 · 11.2% 30.0% 31.5% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Proxy +400 0.257 · 90.2 · 11.8% 23.1% 28.7% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Proxy +400 0.203 · 88.8 · 9.6% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C 56

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Boyd +625 0.222 · 89.5 · 10.6% 20.0% 22.4% F B O C 54

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Boyd +320 0.252 · 93.8 · 12.4% 16.7% 25.4% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Proxy +575 0.199 · 89.5 · 12.0% 7.7% 13.7% F B O C 56

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Proxy — 0.225 · 91.7 · 11.5% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Boyd +525 0.132 · 88.9 · 7.8% 20.0% 12.2% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Proxy +850 0.099 · 86.0 · 0.8% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 30

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Boyd Edge +500 0.188 · 88.9 · 8.5% 8.3% 12.8% F B O D 49

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Boyd Edge +525 0.173 · 90.6 · 8.6% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 47

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Proxy +575 0.146 · 88.5 · 9.5% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 47

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Proxy +525 0.131 · 87.8 · 4.3% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 38

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Proxy +525 0.184 · 89.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Boyd Edge +400 0.155 · 89.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 42

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Boyd +525 0.180 · 90.2 · 9.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 48

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy +625 0.108 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.8% ← leak OFF 27.9% BRK 25.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shohei Ohtani L

20.9% 16.3% 10.2% 16.8% C+ 64 +320

Max Muncy L

16.7% 6.8% 15.0% 13.8% C+ 63 —

Dalton Rushing L

13.0% 2.9% 19.5% 12.5% C 54 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andy Pages R Edge

7.4% 9.4% 8.4% 7.9% D 49 +500

Freddie Freeman L

9.5% 9.6% 9.2% 9.5% D 48 +525

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.8% 6.7% 3.4% 8.0% D 47 +525

Kyle Tucker L

9.7% 1.5% 3.4% 6.6% D 43 +525

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.7% 8.0% 12.8% 9.4% D 42 +400

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.8% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Rushing Tucker Crow-Armstrong Suzuki

Legend

attack side — vs Boyd fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Max Muncy — · 63

Pete Crow-Armstrong +400 · 66

Seiya Suzuki +400 · 56

Dalton Rushing +625 · 54

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph cross 79°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

79°F

7:05p

↑

6 mph · cross

76°F

8:05p

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

9:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 79°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 64 C+ +320 WARM 11 0.252 93.8 12.4% 31.2%vs LHP 405 19.6% 16.7% 25.4% 31

2 Max Muncy 63 C+ — WARM 13 0.241 90.2 11.2% 28.6%vs LHP 411 18.8% 30.0% 31.5% 24

3 Dalton Rushing 54 C +625 WARM 26 0.222 89.5 10.6% 8.3%vs LHP 400 10.3% 20.0% 22.4% 18

4 Andy Pages 49 D +500 COOL 52 0.188 88.9 8.5% 16.1%vs LHP 390 13.8% 8.3% 12.8% 38

5 Freddie Freeman 48 D +525 COOL 56 0.180 90.2 9.4% 15.4%vs LHP 398 12.0% 0.0% 12.0% 43

6 Mookie Betts 47 D +525 · 59 0.173 90.6 8.6% 6.1%vs LHP 389 10.1% 9.1% 10.7% 38

7 Kyle Tucker 43 D +525 WARM 80 0.132 88.9 7.8% 7.7%vs LHP 397 6.7% 20.0% 12.2% 26

8 Teoscar Hernandez 42 D +400 COOL 81 0.155 89.0 9.1% 16.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 35

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 66 C+ +400 WARM 15 0.257 90.2 11.8% 18.5% 393 19.6% 23.1% 28.7% 33

2 Seiya Suzuki 56 C +400 WARM 33 0.203 88.8 9.6% 18.9% 407 15.6% 25.0% 23.9% 29

3 Ian Happ 56 C +575 COOL 34 0.199 89.5 12.0% 17.5% 404 17.1% 7.7% 13.7% 33

4 Michael Conforto 54 C — COOL 47 0.225 91.7 11.5% 19.1% 399 7.9% 0.0% 19.9% 16

5 Dansby Swanson 47 D +525 COOL 75 0.184 89.4 7.4% 15.1% 403 11.8% 0.0% 12.2% 32

6 Michael Busch 47 D +575 COOL 78 0.146 88.5 9.5% 11.3% 403 12.4% 7.7% 9.2% 45

7 Alex Bregman 38 D +525 COOL 105 0.131 87.8 4.3% 8.3% 389 9.2% 8.3% 7.9% 40

8 Carson Kelly 37 D +625 COOL 110 0.108 87.8 5.8% 9.4% 416 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% 24

9 Nico Hoerner 30 D +850 WARM 117 0.099 86.0 0.8% 5.4% 383 5.5% 16.7% 7.5% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.