TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.12×

STL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 9 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:05p

+2 ↑

8:05p

+2 ↑

9:05p

+1 ↑

10:05p

+1 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +5

Best of game José Fermín conv 9 · vs Schlittler ⟷ Ben Rice conv 24 · vs McGreevy → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 85

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

2 Jordan Walker +370 C ●○○○○

3 Alec Burleson +390 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 71

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +255 B ●●●●○

2 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●○○○

3 Austin Wells +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 21.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs McGreevy Edge +255 0.297 · 92.2 · 12.6% 21.4% 26.5% F B O B 70

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs McGreevy — 0.205 · 86.4 · 10.4% 8.3% 14.1% F B O C 53

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Schlittler +370 0.211 · 93.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs McGreevy Edge +425 0.111 · 89.2 · 8.5% 10.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· STL José Fermín vs Schlittler — 0.123 · 86.2 · 4.3% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs McGreevy Edge +425 0.156 · 91.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 47

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs McGreevy Edge +330 0.165 · 90.8 · 10.0% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 47

· STL Alec Burleson vs Schlittler Edge +390 0.176 · 91.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 45

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Schlittler +625 0.136 · 89.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs McGreevy +750 0.135 · 83.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Schlittler Edge +525 0.140 · 89.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· STL Masyn Winn vs Schlittler +850 0.081 · 88.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 28

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Schlittler Edge +750 0.125 · 86.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 90.0% ← leak BRK 10.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.0% 12.1% 13.5% C 51 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.0% 11.7% 11.2% D 45 +390

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.9% 3.6% 7.2% D 38 +525

102

Nathan Church L Edge

8.5% 7.0% 7.4% D 36 +750

106

Ivan Herrera R

5.3% 5.3% 5.6% D 34 +625

111

José Fermín R

2.9% 2.5% 2.4% D 33 —

115

Masyn Winn R

3.5% 2.2% 3.1% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (90.0% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.5% ← leak BRK 26.6% OFF 19.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

19.0% 12.4% 12.5% 15.8% B 70 +255

Neutral · 1

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.3% 4.7% 9.4% 10.7% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.0% 4.8% 9.1% 10.3% D 47 +425

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.0% 8.9% 5.6% 9.9% D 47 +330

Austin Wells L Edge

8.4% 9.4% 0.0% 7.3% D 42 +425

103

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 35 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.5% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice

Legend

attack side — vs Schlittler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice +255 · 70

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 9 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:05p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

73°F

10:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 77°F, wind 9 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C +370 COOL 41 0.211 93.2 10.3% 29.3%vs RHP 406 17.0% 0.0% 16.5% 41

2 Alec Burleson 45 D +390 · 67 0.176 91.7 9.4% 19.1%vs RHP 407 14.0% 0.0% 10.6% 41

3 Jj Wetherholt 38 D +525 · 92 0.140 89.9 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 8.8% 38

4 Nathan Church 36 D +750 COOL 102 0.125 86.1 7.6% 17.6%vs RHP 388 8.0% 0.0% 7.8% 29

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D +625 · 106 0.136 89.1 6.6% 17.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 38

6 José Fermín 33 D — WARM 111 0.123 86.2 4.3% 9.5%vs RHP 388 6.7% 10.0% 8.1% 30

7 Masyn Winn 28 D +850 · 115 0.081 88.1 5.0% 9.5%vs RHP 390 3.8% 0.0% 8.1% 34

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 70 B +255 · 6 0.297 92.2 12.6% 33.8%vs RHP 390 25.7% 21.4% 26.5% 29

2 Paul Goldschmidt 53 C — COOL 30 0.205 86.4 10.4% 18.9%vs RHP 390 16.2% 8.3% 14.1% 34

3 Ryan Mcmahon 47 D +425 WARM 60 0.156 91.4 10.1% 20.9%vs RHP 384 16.7% 0.0% 10.6% 20

4 Trent Grisham 47 D +330 COOL 61 0.165 90.8 10.0% 16.4%vs RHP 390 10.5% 0.0% 10.6% 36

5 Austin Wells 42 D +425 WARM 82 0.111 89.2 8.5% 14.3%vs RHP 386 9.3% 10.0% 11.1% 15

6 Jose Caballero 35 D +750 COOL 103 0.135 83.6 5.9% 17.6%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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