TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.54×

TOR @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 14 mph out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+19 ↑

7:10p

+17 ↑

8:10p

+16 ↑

9:10p

+15 ↑

10:10p

+14 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +19

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 17 · vs Javier ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 42 · vs Bieber → edge: Jeremy Peña

ATTACK Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 98

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +330 C+ ●●●○○

2 George Springer +400 C ●●○○○

3 Jesús Sánchez +500 C ●○○○○

FADE Shane Bieber RHP · TOR

leak 87

2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C+ ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Yainer Diaz +575 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jeremy Peña: 5.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Jeremy Peña ✶ HOT vs Bieber +575 0.199 · 88.5 · 7.4% 50.0% 34.5% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Bieber +390 0.222 · 89.5 · 10.0% 20.0% 36.6% F B O C+ 66

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Bieber +575 0.163 · 87.9 · 7.6% 22.2% 26.7% F B O C 55

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Bieber +425 0.169 · 86.5 · 7.6% 25.0% 22.6% F B O C 55

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Bieber Edge +280 0.317 · 94.7 · 13.5% 0.0% 34.6% F B O B 72

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Javier +330 0.221 · 90.6 · 11.5% 8.3% 26.2% F B O C+ 64

· TOR George Springer vs Javier +400 0.167 · 88.7 · 8.7% 15.4% 15.1% F B O C 52

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Bieber +575 0.158 · 89.5 · 10.6% 11.1% 14.6% F B O C 56

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Javier Edge +500 0.161 · 90.8 · 10.2% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Bieber +525 0.153 · 85.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 46

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Bieber — 0.114 · 86.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 39

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Javier +750 0.127 · 85.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela vs Javier Edge — 0.162 · 88.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 49

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Javier Edge +750 0.107 · 86.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 37

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Javier Edge +400 0.133 · 86.2 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 44

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Javier Edge +750 0.120 · 85.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% BRK 23.3% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.7% 8.1% 17.6% 13.6% C+ 64 +330

George Springer R

8.5% 6.2% 8.7% 7.8% C 52 +400

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

8.4% 19.6% 0.0% 10.7% C 52 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

5.0% 15.4% 12.0% 8.4% D 49 —

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.1% 2.7% 5.1% 6.6% D 44 +400

Ernie Clement R

2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% D 40 +750

Andres Gimenez L Edge

4.1% 2.5% 5.7% 3.8% D 39 +750

101

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% D 37 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Javier's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 28.0% OFF 21.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.2% 24.1% 9.2% 18.4% B 72 +280

Neutral · 5

Christian Walker R

8.5% 10.4% 15.2% 9.9% C+ 66 +390

Jeremy Peña R

4.0% 6.6% 12.5% 5.5% C+ 63 +575

Cam Smith R

9.0% 15.5% 18.5% 11.4% C 56 +575

Yainer Diaz R

7.0% 3.6% 7.4% 5.9% C 55 +575

Isaac Paredes R

7.7% 3.8% 2.2% 6.0% C 55 +425

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jose Altuve R

6.0% 5.7% 0.0% 5.4% D 46 +525

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Javier fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jeremy Peña +575 · 63

Christian Walker +390 · 66

Yainer Diaz +575 · 55

Isaac Paredes +425 · 55

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.10× Wind 14 mph out 88°F retractable

+19

↑

14 mph · out

88°F

7:10p · peak

+17

↑

13 mph · out

87°F

8:10p

+16

↑

12 mph · out

85°F

9:10p

+15

↑

11 mph · out

84°F

10:10p

+14

↑

11 mph · out

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.54× 88°F, wind 14 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 64 C+ +330 COOL 12 0.221 90.6 11.5% 30.6%vs RHP 397 18.7% 8.3% 26.2% 33

2 George Springer 52 C +400 · 35 0.167 88.7 8.7% 23.9%vs RHP 393 11.7% 15.4% 15.1% 44

3 Jesús Sánchez 52 C +500 COOL 38 0.161 90.8 10.2% 21.6%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.1% 2

4 Brandon Valenzuela 49 D — · 53 0.162 88.1 9.0% 22.2%vs RHP 394 10.3% 0.0% 9.0% 11

5 Daulton Varsho 44 D +400 COOL 74 0.133 86.2 7.9% 10.5%vs RHP 386 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% 36

6 Ernie Clement 40 D +750 COOL 86 0.127 85.0 4.8% 6.7%vs RHP 375 7.6% 0.0% 9.4% 48

7 Andres Gimenez 39 D +750 WARM 89 0.120 85.9 6.1% 10.4%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 27

8 Nathan Lukes 37 D +750 COOL 101 0.107 86.5 3.1% 12.2%vs RHP 378 5.8% 0.0% 6.4% 32

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.37 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 72 B +280 · 5 0.317 94.7 13.5% 28.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 34.6% 34

2 Christian Walker 66 C+ +390 COOL 10 0.222 89.5 10.0% 27.3%vs RHP 391 19.0% 20.0% 36.6% 25

3 Jeremy Peña ✶ 63 C+ +575 HOT 14 0.199 88.5 7.4% 28.2%vs RHP 387 16.7% 50.0% 34.5% 39

4 Cam Smith 56 C +575 COOL 22 0.158 89.5 10.6% 18.4%vs RHP 411 12.0% 11.1% 14.6% 23

5 Yainer Diaz 55 C +575 WARM 23 0.163 87.9 7.6% 26.7%vs RHP 398 11.3% 22.2% 26.7% 25

6 Isaac Paredes 55 C +425 COOL 24 0.169 86.5 7.6% 18.8%vs RHP 377 12.1% 25.0% 22.6% 42

7 Jose Altuve 46 D +525 COOL 64 0.153 85.6 7.3% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 38

8 Christian Vazquez 39 D — COOL 88 0.114 86.0 3.6% 13.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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