TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIL

American Family Field is live · 1.16×

PIT @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph in 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -2

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 19 · vs Sproat ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 22 · vs Chandler → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Brandon Sproat RHP · MIL

leak 82

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +305 C+ ●●●○○

2 Nick Gonzales +950 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 73

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +390 C+ ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +525 C ●●●○○

3 Christian Yelich +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Chandler Edge +390 0.237 · 92.7 · 9.4% 18.2% 26.2% F B O C+ 61

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Sproat Edge +305 0.234 · 91.0 · 10.4% 15.4% 21.7% F B O C+ 62

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Chandler Edge +525 0.193 · 90.6 · 7.4% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 51

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Sproat Edge +500 0.183 · 90.8 · 9.9% 7.1% 12.9% F B O C 54

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Sproat Edge +525 0.175 · 86.9 · 8.7% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 51

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Chandler +425 0.184 · 91.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Sproat +950 0.094 · 86.2 · 5.2% 14.3% 9.8% F B O D 39

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Chandler Edge +525 0.144 · 89.0 · 8.0% 11.1% 9.3% F B O D 44

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Chandler — 0.118 · 88.1 · 5.1% 11.1% 7.8% F B O D 38

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Sproat Edge — 0.077 · 85.0 · 3.4% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 34

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Chandler Edge +525 0.168 · 92.8 · 9.7% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 49

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Sproat +700 0.123 · 89.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 45

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Sproat — 0.067 · 87.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Chandler +500 0.125 · 89.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 71.2% ← leak BRK 20.4% OFF 8.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.8% 8.3% 9.3% 12.5% C+ 62 +305

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.0% 15.3% 7.6% 11.3% C 54 +500

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

8.6% 7.4% 11.1% 8.6% C 51 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Marcell Ozuna R

8.0% 9.7% 0.0% 7.7% D 45 +700

Nick Gonzales R

2.5% 5.3% 0.0% 3.1% D 39 +950

108

Jared Triolo R

2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 2.4% D 34 —

109

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.2% usage) carries Sproat's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.6% ← leak BRK 28.8% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.3% 12.9% 12.9% 13.7% C+ 61 +390

Brice Turang L Edge

10.4% 9.5% 1.9% 8.6% C 51 +525

Jackson Chourio R

12.7% 14.3% 3.4% 12.0% C 50 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

17.2% 12.1% 8.0% 14.6% D 49 +525

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.4% 11.8% 13.0% 9.8% D 44 +525

William Contreras R

8.3% 8.0% 0.0% 7.5% D 41 +500

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 6.2% 0.0% 4.0% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.6% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Bauers Turang

Legend

attack side — vs Sproat fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph in 78°F retractable

-4

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

6:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

76°F

7:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

73°F

8:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

9:40p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

68°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 78°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Sproat · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 62 C+ +305 · 16 0.234 91.0 10.4% 25.0%vs RHP 393 16.0% 15.4% 21.7% 33

2 Bryan Reynolds 54 C +500 · 28 0.183 90.8 9.9% 18.8%vs RHP 409 12.8% 7.1% 12.9% 35

3 Spencer Horwitz 51 C +525 COOL 45 0.175 86.9 8.7% 18.2%vs RHP 395 11.9% 0.0% 15.3% 2

4 Marcell Ozuna 45 D +700 COOL 68 0.123 89.2 8.2% 13.8%vs RHP 404 8.5% 0.0% 10.1% 21

5 Nick Gonzales 39 D +950 WARM 90 0.094 86.2 5.2% 11.9%vs RHP 397 7.5% 14.3% 9.8% 50

6 Jared Triolo 34 D — WARM 108 0.067 87.6 4.6% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 21

7 Jake Mangum 34 D — COOL 109 0.077 85.0 3.4% 12.5%vs RHP 384 4.4% 8.3% 8.5% 35

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 61 C+ +390 COOL 17 0.237 92.7 9.4% 36.4%vs RHP 402 20.7% 18.2% 26.2% 30

2 Brice Turang 51 C +525 COOL 42 0.193 90.6 7.4% 28.1%vs RHP 407 12.1% 16.7% 16.0% 37

3 Jackson Chourio 50 C +425 COOL 49 0.184 91.7 8.9% 17.2%vs RHP 402 14.1% 0.0% 10.4% 39

4 Garrett Mitchell 49 D +525 · 54 0.168 92.8 9.7% 25.8%vs RHP 415 7.9% 0.0% 12.4% 25

5 Christian Yelich 44 D +525 WARM 72 0.144 89.0 8.0% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.9% 11.1% 9.3% 33

6 William Contreras 41 D +500 COOL 84 0.125 89.8 6.9% 17.2%vs RHP 419 9.0% 0.0% 7.4% 34

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D — WARM 96 0.118 88.1 5.1% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.6% 11.1% 7.8% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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