Today · 2026-07-09

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Kyle Schwarber vs Brady Singer FIP 5.93 HR/FB 26.8% #4 Bryce Harper vs Brady Singer FIP 5.93 HR/FB 26.8% #9 Willson Contreras vs Anthony Kay FIP 5.17 HR/FB 20.8% #10 Manny Machado vs Merrill Kelly FIP 6.39 HR/FB 25.0% #11 Brandon Marsh vs Brady Singer FIP 5.93 HR/FB 26.8%

📦 STACK Brady Singer FIP 5.93 HR/FB 26.8% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #4 Bryce Harper, #11 Brandon Marsh

📦 STACK Janson Junk FIP 4.13 HR/FB 21.7% → #6 Dominic Canzone, #15 Luke Raley

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-08. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.3% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	77	-23.6	●	Brady Singer (RHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	32	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%14.3% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffRhett Lowder Exit Velo105.6 mph Angle25.0° Distance387 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.00 IP805.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-5 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.3°F Wind3.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 31 HR Note72°F, wind 3 mph W (in) — modifier: +0
2	Ben Rice (L)	68	-5.0	●	Drew Rasmussen (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	1:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffIan Seymour Exit Velo103.2 mph Angle31.0° Distance382 ft StadiumTropicana Field	○○●●○	0.5×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.19 FIP4.05 IP780.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
3	Junior Caminero (R)	71	·	●	NYY Bullpen Proxy NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	1:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%13.0% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Brown Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle26.0° Distance437 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	●○○○○	2.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.00 FIP3.75 IP829.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
4	Bryce Harper (L) ⁵	67	-13.9	●	Brady Singer (RHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle26.0° Distance405 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	2.0×	1	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.00 IP805.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.3°F Wind3.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note72°F, wind 3 mph W (in) — modifier: +0
5	Kody Clemens (L) ²	66	-4.7	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ MIN · Target Field	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffBrendan Beck Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance393 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	●●○○○	1.0×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.20 FIP4.03 IP840.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+39 Weather · Target Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp67.9°F Wind5.1 mph N Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note68°F, wind 5 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0
6	Dominic Canzone (L) ³	65	-3.7	●	Janson Junk (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffShane Bieber Exit Velo104.4 mph Angle27.0° Distance401 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	○○●○○	0.5×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.98 FIP3.98 IP852.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
7	Hunter Goodman (R)	67	·	●	SF Bullpen Proxy COL @ SF · Oracle Park	9:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%16.7% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○○	2.0×	·	SF Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.01 FIP4.23 IP802.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+45 Weather · Oracle Park cold air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp54.2°F Wind9.0 mph WNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+45 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note54°F, wind 9 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: -1
8	Juan Soto (L) ⁴	63	-14.2	●	Michael Wacha (RHP) KC @ NYM · Citi Field	1:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffSeth Lugo Exit Velo111.5 mph Angle23.0° Distance415 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○●●○	0.3×	1	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.31 FIP4.68 IP813.1999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+38 Weather · Citi Field mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.4°F Wind6.0 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+38 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note71°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0
9	Willson Contreras (R) ³	60	-9.9	●	Anthony Kay (LHP) BOS @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffRyan Johnson Exit Velo112.2 mph Angle29.0° Distance446 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○●●○○	0.5×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.10 FIP4.33 IP806.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
10	Manny Machado (R) ³	60	-5.6	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffKyle Hurt Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance407 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○●○○○	0.6×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.31 FIP4.56 IP812.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.5°F Wind2.0 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note65°F, wind 2 mph SE (out) — modifier: +0
11	Brandon Marsh (L) ³	59	-6.7	●	Brady Singer (RHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffPaul Skenes Exit Velo99.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance351 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.2×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.00 IP805.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.3°F Wind3.0 mph W Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note72°F, wind 3 mph W (in) — modifier: +0
12	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ²	59	-8.7	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffDean Kremer Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance419 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○●	0.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.05 FIP4.09 IP816.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+24 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.1°F Wind3 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0
13	Mike Trout ²	58	-7.9	●	Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) LAA @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	?HH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	— Form · — SignalUNKNOWN Batted Balls0 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffRobby Ahlstrom Exit Velo110.6 mph Angle23.0° Distance438 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	●●○○●	0.0×	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.08 IP816.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+37 Weather · Globe Life Field warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.5°F Wind4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note82°F, wind 4 mph S (out) — modifier: +1
14	Matt Olson (L) ⁴	57	-13.4	●	Mitch Keller (RHP) ATL @ PIT · PNC Park	12:35p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffDevin Williams Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle25.0° Distance379 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○●○○	0.5×	1	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.06 FIP4.07 IP841.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · PNC Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.6°F Wind2.1 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note70°F, wind 2 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0
15	Luke Raley (L)	57	-6.4	●	Janson Junk (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	28d Last HR · 2026-06-11 OffKyle Bradish Exit Velo92.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance388 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	6.3×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.98 FIP3.98 IP852.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
16	Colson Montgomery (L)	60	-11.5	●	BOS Bullpen Proxy BOS @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	23	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%14.4% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffTanner Bibee Exit Velo109.7 mph Angle20.0° Distance390 ft StadiumProgressive Field	○●●○○	0.7×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.14 FIP3.99 IP805.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR NoteUnknown stadium
17	Owen Caissie (L) ²	56	-3.6	●	Bryce Miller (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffBryan Woo Exit Velo108.5 mph Angle32.0° Distance418 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○●○●○	0.2×	·	SEA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.4% HR/90.90 FIP3.47 IP819.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
18	Ian Happ (S) ³	56	-7.5	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟠 C	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance381 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○○○○	2.2×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.05 FIP4.09 IP816.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+22 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.1°F Wind3 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0
19	Samuel Basallo (L) ⁵	56	-2.9	●	David Peterson (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Greene Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance406 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○●●○○	0.4×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.81 IP816.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+25 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.1°F Wind3 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0
20	Pete Alonso (R) ⁵	56	-11.9	●	David Peterson (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffColin Rea Exit Velo106.2 mph Angle24.0° Distance411 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.81 IP816.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+24 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.1°F Wind3 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0
21	Miguel Vargas (R)	59	-9.3	●	BOS Bullpen Proxy BOS @ CWS · Rate Field	2:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%14.9% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffGavin Williams Exit Velo106.3 mph Angle29.0° Distance374 ft StadiumProgressive Field	●○○○○	0.8×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.14 FIP3.99 IP805.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
22	Ketel Marte (S) ⁴	55	-9.8	●	Griffin Canning (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffAdrian Houser Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle36.0° Distance431 ft StadiumChase Field	○○○○○	2.3×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.17 FIP4.33 IP820.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.5°F Wind2.0 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note65°F, wind 2 mph SE (out) — modifier: +0
23	Jordan Walker (R) ³	55	-8.7	●	Logan Henderson (RHP) MIL @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffJacob Misiorowski Exit Velo105.6 mph Angle23.0° Distance386 ft StadiumBusch Stadium	●○●●○	0.3×	·	MIL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.9% HR/90.93 FIP3.52 IP829.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+6 Weather · Busch Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.0°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note74°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
24	Kyle Stowers (L) ²	55	-10.3	●	Bryce Miller (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffGeorge Kirby Exit Velo105.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance416 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○●●○●	0.0×	·	SEA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.4% HR/90.90 FIP3.47 IP819.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
25	Dansby Swanson (R) ³	54	-7.2	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%7.4% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffRodolfo Durán Exit Velo92.7 mph Angle34.0° Distance387 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○○○	1.2×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.05 FIP4.09 IP816.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+22 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.1°F Wind3 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0
26	Zach Neto (R) ³	54	-5.8	●	Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) LAA @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffAroldis Chapman Exit Velo103.9 mph Angle31.0° Distance396 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○●○○	0.5×	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.08 IP816.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+41 Weather · Globe Life Field warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.5°F Wind4 mph S Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+41 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note82°F, wind 4 mph S (out) — modifier: +1
27	Rhys Hoskins (R) ³	54	-10.0	●	Bailey Ober (RHP) CLE @ MIN · Target Field	1:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls8 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV88.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffConnor Prielipp Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance383 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○●●	0.0×	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/91.12 FIP4.28 IP855.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+16 Weather · Target Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp67.9°F Wind5.1 mph N Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+16 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 8 HR Note68°F, wind 5 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0
28	Josh Bell (S) ³	53	-6.1	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ MIN · Target Field	1:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffCamilo Doval Exit Velo96.4 mph Angle30.0° Distance376 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●○○○	1.0×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.20 FIP4.03 IP840.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Target Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp67.9°F Wind5.1 mph N Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note68°F, wind 5 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0
29	Gavin Sheets (L) ³	53	-7.4	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV88.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffYoshinobu Yamamoto Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle26.0° Distance414 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	1.5×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.31 FIP4.56 IP812.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+20 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.5°F Wind2.0 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+20 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note65°F, wind 2 mph SE (out) — modifier: +0
30	Seiya Suzuki (R) ²	53	-10.3	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	1:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%7.8% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-08 OffGrant Wolfram Exit Velo101.1 mph Angle31.0° Distance401 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○●	0.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.05 FIP4.09 IP816.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+23 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75.1°F Wind3 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +0

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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193 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

18.1%

▼ -2.5 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 19.4% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-08

24 HRs

33%

8 caught / 24 HRs

in top 50

#7 Kyle Schwarber

38.0%

🔵

#12 Pete Crow-Armstrong

25.7%

🔵

#14 Michael Conforto

33.6%

🔵

#18 Pete Alonso

17.0%

🔵

#21 Kyle Karros

26.5%

🔵

#27 Seiya Suzuki

27.3%

🟠

#30 CJ Abrams

24.3%

🟠

#38 Kyle Stowers

25.9%

🟠

Missed

Spencer Torkelson Mike Trout Sal Stewart Elly De La Cruz Rhys Hoskins +11 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Ben Rice ×3 James Wood ×3 Jordan Walker ×3 Juan Soto ×3 CJ Abrams ×2

❄️ Cold

Jake Bauers 0 of 7d Max Muncy 0 of 7d Hunter Goodman 0 of 6d Bryce Harper 0 of 6d Mookie Betts 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.8%

B 19.6%

C+ 16.6%

C 13.4%

D 8.7%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-09

You saw the full board yesterday

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.