TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ MIA

Playable air · 1.07×

SEA @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 29 · vs Junk ⟷ Owen Caissie conv 27 · vs Miller → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 91

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Young +750 D ●●●○○

3 Randy Arozarena +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 22

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Owen Caissie +475 C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Stowers +320 C ●●●●○

3 Otto Lopez +750 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 15.8% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ vs Junk Edge +400 0.278 · 92.9 · 10.7% 22.2% 35.1% F B O C+ 65

· MIA Owen Caissie HOT vs Miller Edge +475 0.215 · 91.8 · 10.4% 27.3% 25.9% F B O C 56

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Miller Edge +320 0.221 · 91.6 · 9.0% 27.3% 25.3% F B O C 55

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Junk Edge +390 0.235 · 90.7 · 10.8% 0.0% 20.7% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Miller +750 0.168 · 89.7 · 7.0% 25.0% 16.6% F B O D 46

· SEA Cole Young vs Junk Edge +750 0.151 · 88.3 · 6.1% 16.7% 18.4% F B O D 45

· MIA Heriberto Hernández HOT vs Miller — 0.233 · 92.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 32.0% F B O D 49

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Junk +500 0.167 · 91.1 · 7.4% 16.7% 14.5% F B O D 48

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Junk Edge +625 0.208 · 86.4 · 6.5% 10.0% 19.9% F B O D 49

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Junk Edge +280 0.152 · 88.2 · 9.1% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Miller — 0.132 · 87.5 · 3.2% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 34

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Miller Edge +750 0.100 · 86.7 · 4.8% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 34

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Junk Edge +750 0.140 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 39

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Miller Edge +700 0.168 · 85.4 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 41

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Junk Edge +500 0.105 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 38

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Miller Edge — 0.124 · 86.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 44.6% ← leak FB 36.1% OFF 19.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

19.4% 18.3% 8.5% 15.8% C+ 65 +400

Luke Raley L Edge

16.1% 20.0% 7.4% 16.8% C 57 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.2% 7.3% 5.9% 6.1% D 49 +625

Randy Arozarena R

7.8% 9.2% 5.3% 8.1% D 48 +500

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.1% 11.1% 12.1% 11.3% D 48 +280

Cole Young L Edge

11.1% 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% D 45 +750

109

J.P. Crawford L Edge

8.5% 5.4% 13.0% 7.0% D 39 +750

123

Josh Naylor L Edge

8.2% 4.4% 2.1% 4.8% D 38 +500

Read the columns: the breaking family (44.6% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.8% ← leak OFF 23.8% BRK 23.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.5% 21.4% 7.7% 15.4% C 56 +475

Kyle Stowers L Edge

14.0% 3.2% 12.5% 11.6% C 55 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

11.0% 8.3% 8.7% 10.0% D 49 —

Otto Lopez R

10.6% 2.3% 4.5% 7.3% D 46 +750

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.9% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8% D 41 +700

148

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.6% 1.9% 3.1% 4.4% D 35 —

149

Javier Sanoja R

0.9% 0.0% 3.1% 1.5% D 34 —

153

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 8.3% 0.0% 3.4% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Emerson Arozarena Young Caissie Stowers Hernández Lopez

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Dominic Canzone +400 · 65

Owen Caissie +475 · 56

Kyle Stowers +320 · 55

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 65 C+ +400 · 6 0.278 92.9 10.7% 29.5%vs RHP 399 17.1% 22.2% 35.1% 19

2 Luke Raley 57 C +390 COOL 15 0.235 90.7 10.8% 33.3%vs RHP 385 15.2% 0.0% 20.7% 16

3 Colt Emerson 49 D +625 · 50 0.208 86.4 6.5% 41.7%vs RHP 369 14.8% 10.0% 19.9% 20

4 Randy Arozarena 48 D +500 COOL 56 0.167 91.1 7.4% 22.9%vs RHP 393 9.9% 16.7% 14.5% 32

5 Cal Raleigh 48 D +280 WARM 59 0.152 88.2 9.1% 14.5%vs RHP 390 13.0% 8.3% 10.9% 21

6 Cole Young 45 D +750 WARM 75 0.151 88.3 6.1% 15.1%vs RHP 387 10.2% 16.7% 18.4% 30

7 J.P. Crawford 39 D +750 COOL 109 0.140 — 7.0% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 28

8 Josh Naylor 38 D +500 COOL 123 0.105 87.7 5.8% 13.5%vs RHP 390 8.3% 0.0% 9.2% 40

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 56 C +475 HOT 17 0.215 91.8 10.4% 29.3%vs RHP 398 15.9% 27.3% 25.9% 15

2 Kyle Stowers 55 C +320 HOT 24 0.221 91.6 9.0% 24.4%vs RHP 395 12.5% 27.3% 25.3% 27

3 Heriberto Hernández 49 D — HOT 49 0.233 92.4 8.5% 23.1%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 32.0% 25

4 Otto Lopez 46 D +750 WARM 69 0.168 89.7 7.0% 13.0%vs RHP 402 8.9% 25.0% 16.6% 44

5 Liam Hicks 41 D +700 COOL 99 0.168 85.4 5.1% 23.5%vs RHP 376 16.0% 0.0% 11.3% 32

6 Xavier Edwards 35 D — COOL 148 0.124 86.9 5.5% 3.9%vs RHP 396 5.6% 0.0% 6.6% 37

7 Javier Sanoja 34 D — WARM 149 0.132 87.5 3.2% 4.8%vs RHP 385 5.4% 10.0% 8.3% 35

8 Jakob Marsee 34 D +750 · 153 0.100 86.7 4.8% 8.5%vs RHP 379 6.8% 8.3% 7.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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