TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ TEX

Neutral air · 1.01×

LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 4 mph out 82°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:05p

+10 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+10 ↑

10:05p

+13 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 11:05p window peaks +13

Best of game Mike Trout conv 60 · vs Eovaldi ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 29 · vs Detmers → edge: Mike Trout

ATTACK Nathan Eovaldi RHP · TEX

leak 89

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +350 C ●●●●●

2 Zach Neto +425 C ●●●○○

3 Josh Lowe +575 D ●●●○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 4

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +390 D ●●●○○

3 Josh Jung +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mike Trout: 20.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 100.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Mike Trout ✶ vs Eovaldi +350 0.231 · 91.2 · 12.7% 100.0% 20.5% F B O C 58

· TEX Joc Pederson HOT vs Detmers — 0.226 · 92.1 · 8.8% 37.5% 20.3% F B O C 51

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Eovaldi +425 0.224 · 89.7 · 10.0% 18.2% 24.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Jake Burger vs Detmers Edge +390 0.189 · 90.1 · 8.2% 18.2% 16.8% F B O D 44

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Eovaldi Edge +575 0.145 · 89.6 · 8.2% 18.2% 15.6% F B O D 42

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Eovaldi +475 0.137 · 89.8 · 7.7% 18.2% 8.8% F B O D 40

· TEX Josh Jung vs Detmers Edge +500 0.148 · 90.4 · 6.3% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 36

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Detmers Edge +700 0.144 · 88.9 · 6.3% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 35

· LAA Jorge Soler COOL vs Eovaldi +475 0.197 · 88.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 46

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Detmers — 0.043 · 87.4 · 2.2% 9.1% 5.2% F B O D 22

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Detmers — 0.143 · 87.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 35

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Eovaldi +850 0.141 · 87.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.131 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe vs Eovaldi +575 0.104 · 86.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Eovaldi Edge +750 0.116 · 87.2 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Detmers +500 0.157 · 92.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.7% ← leak OFF 36.3% BRK 21.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout

19.9% 6.2% 31.2% 20.7% C 58 +350

Zach Neto R

16.4% 4.0% 10.0% 13.0% C 54 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R

14.4% 0.0% 11.5% 12.1% D 46 +475

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.1% 5.0% 2.8% 8.5% D 42 +575

107

Jo Adell R

8.9% 6.5% 6.1% 7.7% D 40 +475

129

Oswald Peraza R

6.9% 13.0% 8.3% 8.1% D 37 +850

138

Vaughn Grissom R

7.2% 0.0% 7.5% 6.2% D 36 —

139

Logan O'Hoppe R

9.6% 15.4% 7.8% 9.5% D 36 +575

170

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 1.8% 2.2% D 31 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.7% usage) carries Eovaldi's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.2% ← leak BRK 42.9% OFF 10.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L

15.9% 10.0% 4.7% 11.6% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R Edge

7.6% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% D 44 +390

116

Brandon Nimmo L

10.5% 18.6% 16.2% 13.5% D 39 +500

140

Josh Jung R Edge

7.8% 3.4% 0.0% 5.6% D 36 +500

144

Evan Carter L

9.3% 5.7% 0.0% 7.0% D 35 —

146

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.0% 5.5% 0.0% 6.0% D 35 +700

194

Alejandro Osuna L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.2% usage) carries Detmers's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Neto Lowe Adell Pederson Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Eovaldi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Mike Trout +350 · 58

Joc Pederson — · 51

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 4 mph out 82°F retractable

+10

↑

12 mph · slight_out

105°F

7:05p

+10

↑

13 mph · slight_out

103°F

8:05p

+11

↑

14 mph · slight_out

101°F

9:05p

+10

↑

14 mph · slight_out

99°F

10:05p

+13

↑

16 mph · out

97°F

11:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 82°F, wind 4 mph S (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nathan Eovaldi · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout ✶ 58 C +350 · 13 0.231 91.2 12.7% 28.0%vs RHP 407 19.7% 100.0% 20.5% 0

2 Zach Neto 54 C +425 COOL 26 0.224 89.7 10.0% 21.9%vs RHP 402 19.8% 18.2% 24.1% 28

3 Jorge Soler 46 D +475 COOL 68 0.197 88.3 9.3% 34.4%vs RHP 398 14.5% 0.0% 16.6% 22

4 Josh Lowe 42 D +575 WARM 95 0.145 89.6 8.2% 17.1%vs RHP 395 11.1% 18.2% 15.6% 24

5 Jo Adell 40 D +475 COOL 107 0.137 89.8 7.7% 10.4%vs RHP 412 11.6% 18.2% 8.8% 31

6 Oswald Peraza 37 D +850 COOL 129 0.141 87.4 7.8% 10.5%vs RHP 386 7.6% 0.0% 9.0% 11

7 Vaughn Grissom 36 D — COOL 138 0.131 89.2 6.9% 15.4%vs RHP 396 7.1% 0.0% 9.0% 9

8 Logan O'Hoppe 36 D +575 · 139 0.104 86.8 9.2% 13.8%vs RHP 408 4.1% 0.0% 8.8% 20

9 Nolan Schanuel 31 D +750 COOL 170 0.116 87.2 4.1% 12.1%vs RHP 372 8.1% 0.0% 7.8% 28

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 51 C — HOT 42 0.226 92.1 8.8% 23.4% 392 19.0% 37.5% 20.3% 18

2 Jake Burger 44 D +390 · 83 0.189 90.1 8.2% 25.0%vs LHP 399 14.6% 18.2% 16.8% 28

3 Brandon Nimmo 39 D +500 WARM 116 0.157 92.5 9.5% 5.9%vs LHP 411 8.6% 0.0% 6.5% 18

4 Josh Jung 36 D +500 · 140 0.148 90.4 6.3% 16.7%vs LHP 386 11.1% 12.5% 8.3% 22

5 Evan Carter 35 D — COOL 144 0.143 87.7 7.0% 10.3% 377 9.6% 0.0% 10.8% 12

6 Ezequiel Duran 35 D +700 · 146 0.144 88.9 6.3% 12.5%vs LHP 383 10.2% 9.1% 7.6% 37

7 Alejandro Osuna 22 D — WARM 194 0.043 87.4 2.2% 3.3% 364 2.9% 9.1% 5.2% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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