TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ CIN

Neutral air · 1.01×

PHI @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph in 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

-1 ↑

9:10p

-1 ↑

10:10p

-1 ↑

11:10p

the 9:10p window peaks -1

Best of game Bryce Harper conv 31 · vs Singer ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 30 · vs Luzardo → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 96

2.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Harper +225 C+ ●●●●●

2 Kyle Schwarber +625 B ●●●●●

3 Brandon Marsh +370 C ●●●●○

FADE Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 77

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +350 C ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz +350 C ●●●○○

3 Spencer Steer +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Singer Edge +225 0.245 · 90.3 · 11.3% 23.1% 39.1% F B O C+ 67

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Singer Edge +625 0.317 · 93.6 · 14.3% 23.1% 38.3% F B O B 77

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Luzardo Edge +350 0.207 · 90.9 · 8.8% 33.3% 26.8% F B O C 52

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Singer Edge +370 0.195 · 89.7 · 10.2% 25.0% 27.0% F B O C 59

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Luzardo Edge +350 0.211 · 94.3 · 8.8% 16.7% 17.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Singer +475 0.121 · 88.6 · 8.2% 25.0% 13.8% F B O D 47

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Singer +500 0.146 · 90.0 · 7.3% 16.7% 13.3% F B O D 48

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Luzardo Edge +425 0.188 · 89.5 · 8.3% 11.1% 13.6% F B O D 46

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Luzardo Edge +370 0.160 · 87.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 18.7% F B O D 37

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Luzardo +500 0.233 · 88.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 18.4% F B O D 44

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Luzardo — 0.201 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 44

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Luzardo — 0.102 · 87.9 · 4.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 31

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Luzardo Edge +575 0.144 · 88.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Singer +500 0.122 · — · 7.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 39

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Singer Edge +390 0.144 · 89.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 46

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Singer Edge +950 0.089 · 86.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Luzardo Edge +500 0.139 · 91.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.7% ← leak BRK 42.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.7% 16.4% 19.7% B 77 +625

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.4% 17.9% 12.2% C+ 67 +225

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.8% 16.2% 10.0% C 59 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.5% 5.1% D 48 +500

Trea Turner R

8.8% 4.4% 6.6% D 47 +475

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.4% 5.6% 6.7% D 46 +390

111

J.T. Realmuto R

5.2% 4.5% 5.3% D 39 +500

151

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.8% 0.0% 1.0% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.7% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.1% ← leak BRK 36.5% OFF 20.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Sal Stewart R Edge

15.8% 10.1% 12.5% 13.7% C 52 +350

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.7% 9.5% 2.4% 14.6% C 50 +350

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Spencer Steer R Edge

12.6% 11.1% 14.8% 12.4% D 46 +425

Jj Bleday L

9.8% 8.3% 6.5% 8.6% D 44 +500

Nathaniel Lowe L

8.7% 10.0% 13.3% 9.9% D 44 —

124

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

14.0% 4.4% 7.1% 10.7% D 38 +500

126

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

9.0% 3.1% 7.7% 7.6% D 37 +370

135

Matt Mclain R Edge

10.8% 11.1% 0.0% 9.8% D 36 +575

166

Tj Friedl L

3.1% 4.3% 0.0% 2.8% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.1% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Bohm Turner Stewart Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Bryce Harper +225 · 67

Kyle Schwarber +625 · 77

Sal Stewart +350 · 52

Brandon Marsh +370 · 59

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph in 72°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

86°F

7:10p

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

84°F

8:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

82°F

9:10p · peak

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

79°F

10:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 72°F, wind 3 mph W (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 2.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.58 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 77 B +625 WARM 1 0.317 93.6 14.3% 45.5%vs RHP 404 27.1% 23.1% 38.3% 25

2 Bryce Harper 67 C+ +225 · 4 0.245 90.3 11.3% 42.5%vs RHP 400 20.5% 23.1% 39.1% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 59 C +370 WARM 11 0.195 89.7 10.2% 26.7%vs RHP 392 14.3% 25.0% 27.0% 31

4 Alec Bohm 48 D +500 HOT 58 0.146 90.0 7.3% 20.6%vs RHP 394 11.8% 16.7% 13.3% 33

5 Trea Turner 47 D +475 WARM 62 0.121 88.6 8.2% 17.0%vs RHP 393 11.6% 25.0% 13.8% 41

6 Bryson Stott 46 D +390 COOL 73 0.144 89.0 8.6% 9.8%vs RHP 393 8.4% 0.0% 9.5% 35

7 J.T. Realmuto 39 D +500 WARM 111 0.122 — 7.5% 18.8%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 24

8 Justin Crawford 34 D +950 COOL 151 0.089 86.6 3.3% 6.2%vs RHP 382 3.1% 0.0% 8.2% 34

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 52 C +350 · 34 0.207 90.9 8.8% 33.3%vs LHP 393 13.2% 33.3% 26.8% 35

2 Elly De La Cruz 50 C +350 · 48 0.211 94.3 8.8% 38.9%vs LHP 395 15.7% 16.7% 17.0% 30

3 Spencer Steer 46 D +425 COOL 70 0.188 89.5 8.3% 27.3%vs LHP 393 13.3% 11.1% 13.6% 23

4 Jj Bleday 44 D +500 COOL 80 0.233 88.8 6.9% 21.4%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 29

5 Nathaniel Lowe 44 D — COOL 84 0.201 88.5 7.6% 21.4% 398 13.7% 0.0% 15.8% 10

6 Tyler Stephenson 38 D +500 WARM 124 0.139 91.1 7.6% 6.7%vs LHP 384 7.1% 0.0% 7.7% 20

7 Eugenio Suarez 37 D +370 WARM 126 0.160 87.4 6.6% 23.1%vs LHP 381 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 20

8 Matt Mclain 36 D +575 COOL 135 0.144 88.8 7.1% 22.2%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 11

9 Tj Friedl 31 D — WARM 166 0.102 87.9 4.1% 6.5% 374 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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