TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.71×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 9 mph slight_out 54°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:45p

+3 ↑

7:45p

+3 ↑

8:45p

+4 ↑

9:45p

+4 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 9:45p window peaks +4

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 27 · vs Feltner ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 89

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●●●○

2 Heliot Ramos — C ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge — D ●●○○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 44

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Karros — D ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Tovar — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 22.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Proxy — 0.295 · 91.1 · 16.7% 33.3% 22.9% F B O C+ 67

· SF Rafael Devers vs Feltner Edge — 0.227 · 92.0 · 10.2% 30.8% 22.9% F B O C 53

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Feltner — 0.213 · 92.4 · 11.9% 30.0% 18.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· COL Kyle Karros vs Proxy — 0.165 · 89.4 · 8.2% 33.3% 12.4% F B O D 42

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 86.9 · 7.2% 18.2% 7.4% F B O D 36

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Feltner Edge — 0.192 · 91.9 · 10.3% 14.3% 10.5% F B O D 46

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.139 · 85.5 · 4.3% 11.1% 10.0% F B O D 31

· SF Willy Adames vs Feltner — 0.194 · 88.6 · 8.8% 7.7% 11.8% F B O D 43

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Feltner — 0.208 · 89.6 · 10.3% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 47

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Proxy — 0.098 · 91.4 · 6.3% 12.5% 5.6% F B O D 30

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Proxy — 0.204 · 85.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 39

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Proxy — 0.189 · 84.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.137 · 87.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Proxy — 0.140 · 89.4 · 2.3% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

· SF Luis Arraez vs Feltner Edge — 0.132 · 87.2 · 2.3% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 24

· COL Willi Castro vs Proxy — 0.106 · 88.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 29

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Proxy — 0.083 · 87.8 · 1.1% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

BRK 45.1% FB 39.5% OFF 15.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L Edge

9.5% 14.8% 10.4% 12.6% C 53 —

Heliot Ramos R

17.0% 16.0% 14.3% 16.1% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Casey Schmitt R

17.1% 9.0% 19.0% 12.1% D 47 —

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

0.0% 14.7% 20.0% 12.4% D 46 —

Willy Adames R

8.2% 8.2% 15.0% 8.8% D 43 —

171

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.6% 2.3% 0.0% 2.0% D 31 —

174

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.2% 3.6% 0.0% 2.8% D 30 —

188

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Feltner's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Karros Devers Ramos

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman — · 67

Rafael Devers — · 53

Heliot Ramos — · 51

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 9 mph slight_out 54°F open

↑

14 mph · out

65°F

6:45p

↑

13 mph · out

62°F

7:45p

↑

13 mph · out

61°F

8:45p

↑

13 mph · out

59°F

9:45p · peak

↑

13 mph · out

58°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.71× 54°F, wind 9 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 67 C+ — WARM 7 0.295 91.1 16.7% 30.4% 409 25.9% 33.3% 22.9% 28

2 Kyle Karros 42 D — WARM 118 0.165 89.4 8.2% 12.3% 414 11.3% 33.3% 12.4% 27

3 Jake Mccarthy 39 D — WARM 142 0.204 85.0 6.0% 13.6% 419 16.7% 0.0% 15.7% 42

4 Ezequiel Tovar 36 D — COOL 158 0.146 86.9 7.2% 10.8% 410 8.4% 18.2% 7.4% 35

5 Tj Rumfield 35 D — COOL 164 0.189 84.1 5.6% 13.7% 406 8.3% 0.0% 8.6% 37

6 Edouard Julien 30 D — COOL 180 0.098 91.4 6.3% 9.1% 389 4.1% 12.5% 5.6% 16

7 Willi Castro 29 D — WARM 185 0.106 88.1 6.2% 8.0% 425 5.8% 0.0% 5.5% 21

8 Troy Johnston 26 D — COOL 193 0.140 89.4 2.3% 6.5% 415 1.5% 0.0% 5.7% 23

9 Tyler Freeman 21 D — COOL 197 0.083 87.8 1.1% 7.0% 369 2.5% 0.0% 5.4% 27

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 53 C — WARM 31 0.227 92.0 10.2% 26.3%vs RHP 408 16.7% 30.8% 22.9% 35

2 Heliot Ramos 51 C — WARM 45 0.213 92.4 11.9% 20.7%vs RHP 404 12.7% 30.0% 18.7% 29

3 Casey Schmitt 47 D — · 66 0.208 89.6 10.3% 21.5%vs RHP 394 16.1% 8.3% 10.9% 38

4 Bryce Eldridge 46 D — WARM 74 0.192 91.9 10.3% 18.5%vs RHP 398 19.2% 14.3% 10.5% 28

5 Willy Adames 43 D — · 91 0.194 88.6 8.8% 19.3%vs RHP 389 13.6% 7.7% 11.8% 17

6 Drew Gilbert 31 D — COOL 171 0.139 85.5 4.3% 16.7%vs RHP 398 4.3% 11.1% 10.0% 15

7 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — COOL 174 0.137 87.2 4.6% 9.1%vs RHP 378 4.9% 0.0% 6.6% 39

8 Luis Arraez 24 D — WARM 188 0.132 87.2 2.3% 3.7%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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