TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

MIL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:45p

-5 ↑

7:45p

-5 ↑

8:45p

-5 ↑

9:45p

-5 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -5 FIT

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 29 · vs Henderson ⟷ Garrett Mitchell conv 21 · vs Pallante → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 89

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +750 C ●●●●○

2 Bryan Torres +950 D ●●●●○

3 Nathan Church +850 D ●●●○○

FADE Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 78

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Garrett Mitchell — D ●●●○○

2 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

3 Jackson Chourio +950 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Henderson +750 0.243 · 94.1 · 12.1% 30.8% 27.4% F B O C 55

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Pallante Edge +950 0.229 · 92.5 · 9.2% 21.4% 18.7% F B O C 52

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Pallante Edge +650 0.262 · 92.3 · 8.9% 14.3% 19.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· STL Bryan Torres HOT vs Henderson Edge +950 0.245 · 86.6 · 9.6% 25.0% 23.0% F B O D 41

· MIL Garrett Mitchell HOT vs Pallante Edge — 0.186 · 93.0 · 9.7% 23.1% 19.3% F B O D 45

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Pallante — 0.073 · 87.7 · 4.8% 33.3% 8.0% F B O D 27

· STL Nathan Church vs Henderson Edge +850 0.153 · 85.8 · 9.4% 23.1% 12.8% F B O D 37

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Henderson Edge +750 0.186 · 91.4 · 10.4% 16.7% 10.7% F B O D 43

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.189 · 90.7 · 6.9% 7.7% 11.2% F B O D 39

· STL José Fermín vs Henderson +950 0.118 · 85.1 · 4.1% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 26

· MIL William Contreras vs Pallante — 0.140 · 90.2 · 6.5% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 34

· STL Masyn Winn vs Henderson — 0.089 · 87.7 · 5.8% 7.7% 6.9% F B O D 25

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Henderson +950 0.156 · 89.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 31

· MIL Andrew Vaughn COOL vs Pallante — 0.182 · 89.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Henderson Edge +850 0.139 · 89.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· STL Lars Nootbaar COOL vs Henderson Edge +950 0.152 · 92.2 · 10.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 33

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.092 · 85.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 23

· MIL Cooper Pratt COOL vs Pallante — 0.064 · 88.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.3% ← leak BRK 47.9% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jackson Chourio S Edge

14.7% 15.9% 4.3% 13.8% C 52 +950

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.2% 13.5% 14.3% 14.0% C 51 +650

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

17.6% 13.0% 5.9% 14.8% D 45 —

121

Brice Turang L Edge

8.9% 9.5% 2.4% 8.0% D 39 —

159

William Contreras R

9.5% 7.4% 0.0% 8.1% D 34 —

168

Andrew Vaughn R

5.3% 5.4% 0.0% 4.6% D 33 —

189

Cooper Pratt R

9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% D 29 —

193

Joey Ortiz R

2.9% 5.9% 0.0% 3.6% D 27 —

205

Sal Frelick L Edge

1.2% 5.3% 0.0% 2.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.3% usage) carries Pallante's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.4% ← leak OFF 31.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.0% 18.5% 14.6% C 55 +750

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.0% 8.1% 10.7% D 43 +750

102

Bryan Torres L Edge

12.9% 0.0% 8.9% D 41 +950

137

Nathan Church L Edge

9.9% 7.3% 8.2% D 37 +850

171

Lars Nootbaar L Edge

14.6% 0.0% 9.7% D 33 +950

175

Ivan Herrera R

6.0% 8.8% 6.7% D 31 +950

183

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.0% 2.6% 8.1% D 30 +850

195

José Fermín R

2.4% 0.0% 2.2% D 26 +950

198

Masyn Winn R

3.8% 3.4% 3.2% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.4% usage) carries Henderson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Chourio Bauers Mitchell Ortiz Walker Burleson Torres Church

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jordan Walker +750 · 55

Jackson Chourio +950 · 52

Bryan Torres +950 · 41

Garrett Mitchell — · 45

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 84°F open

-5

↑

1 mph · in

76°F

6:45p · peak

-5

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1 mph · in

76°F

7:45p

-5

↑

1 mph · in

76°F

8:45p

-5

↑

1 mph · in

76°F

9:45p

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↑

1 mph · in

76°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 84°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio 52 C +950 · 35 0.229 92.5 9.2% 20.0%vs RHP 399 18.9% 21.4% 18.7% 41

2 Jake Bauers 51 C +650 COOL 37 0.262 92.3 8.9% 34.8%vs RHP 403 19.1% 14.3% 19.3% 33

3 Garrett Mitchell 45 D — HOT 75 0.186 93.0 9.7% 29.6%vs RHP 415 10.0% 23.1% 19.3% 28

4 Brice Turang 39 D — COOL 121 0.189 90.7 6.9% 26.7%vs RHP 407 10.2% 7.7% 11.2% 45

5 William Contreras 34 D — · 159 0.140 90.2 6.5% 19.2%vs RHP 419 10.7% 8.3% 7.6% 39

6 Andrew Vaughn 33 D — COOL 168 0.182 89.7 4.5% 6.2%vs RHP 412 4.8% 0.0% 8.2% 24

7 Cooper Pratt 29 D — COOL 189 0.064 88.2 6.1% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 31

8 Joey Ortiz 27 D — WARM 193 0.073 87.7 4.8% 8.0%vs RHP 407 3.6% 33.3% 8.0% 31

9 Sal Frelick 23 D — COOL 205 0.092 85.8 3.6% 5.1%vs RHP 402 2.7% 0.0% 5.8% 32

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 55 C +750 WARM 21 0.243 94.1 12.1% 33.3%vs RHP 406 20.3% 30.8% 27.4% 30

2 Alec Burleson 43 D +750 COOL 88 0.186 91.4 10.4% 22.4%vs RHP 404 17.4% 16.7% 10.7% 35

3 Bryan Torres 41 D +950 HOT 102 0.245 86.6 9.6% 33.3%vs RHP 370 11.8% 25.0% 23.0% 9

4 Nathan Church 37 D +850 · 137 0.153 85.8 9.4% 22.2%vs RHP 388 10.2% 23.1% 12.8% 35

5 Lars Nootbaar 33 D +950 COOL 171 0.152 92.2 10.2% 6.2%vs RHP 439 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 27

6 Ivan Herrera 31 D +950 COOL 175 0.156 89.4 7.9% 20.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 37

7 Jj Wetherholt 30 D +850 · 183 0.139 89.9 8.6% 17.5%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 40

8 José Fermín 26 D +950 WARM 195 0.118 85.1 4.1% 14.3%vs RHP 377 6.9% 10.0% 7.1% 32

9 Masyn Winn 25 D — · 198 0.089 87.7 5.8% 12.5%vs RHP 390 4.7% 7.7% 6.9% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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