TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.86×

BOS @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 30 · vs Kay ⟷ Colson Montgomery conv 26 · vs Proxy → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 89

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Caleb Durbin +700 D ●●●○○

3 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy

leak 58

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colson Montgomery +280 C+ ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +320 C ●●●●○

3 Tristan Peters +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Kay Edge +305 0.247 · 90.5 · 11.4% 33.3% 26.8% F B O C+ 60

· — Colson Montgomery COOL vs Proxy +280 0.256 · 89.3 · 14.4% 27.3% 24.0% F B O C+ 60

· — Miguel Vargas vs Proxy +320 0.238 · 90.4 · 14.9% 25.0% 21.9% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Kay Edge +700 0.154 · 84.8 · 5.3% 25.0% 14.4% F B O D 38

· — Tristan Peters vs Proxy +850 0.163 · 86.8 · 4.6% 18.2% 9.6% F B O D 34

· — Andrew Benintendi vs Proxy — 0.182 · 89.3 · 10.2% 12.5% 9.7% F B O D 44

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Kay — 0.108 · 88.5 · 4.4% 12.5% 8.0% F B O D 32

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Kay Edge +525 0.166 · 86.1 · 7.0% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Kay +425 0.158 · 89.6 · 10.2% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 44

· — Sam Antonacci COOL vs Proxy +950 0.127 · 87.7 · 6.8% 10.0% 6.5% F B O D 33

· — Chase Meidroth COOL vs Proxy +950 0.116 · 87.7 · 4.5% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 29

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Kay +400 0.165 · 89.8 · 10.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 43

· — Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Proxy — 0.033 · 89.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 22

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.078 · 91.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.9% ← leak BRK 26.7% OFF 13.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R Edge

11.3% 17.0% 20.0% 13.6% C+ 60 +305

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L

14.7% 6.2% 10.4% 11.4% D 44 +425

Wilyer Abreu L

12.2% 11.8% 9.1% 11.4% D 43 +400

114

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

4.0% 5.5% 11.1% 5.4% D 39 +525

122

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.2% 1.8% 4.0% 2.9% D 38 +700

161

Carlos Narvaez R Edge

8.6% 6.1% 0.0% 6.7% D 32 —

162

Masataka Yoshida L

2.1% 0.0% 3.3% 2.0% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.9% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Durbin Montgomery Vargas Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Willson Contreras +305 · 60

Colson Montgomery +280 · 60

Miguel Vargas +320 · 59

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.86× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 60 C+ +305 WARM 9 0.247 90.5 11.4% 25.0%vs LHP 407 20.9% 33.3% 26.8% 31

2 Jarren Duran 44 D +425 COOL 86 0.158 89.6 10.2% 7.7%vs LHP 398 14.3% 10.0% 7.5% 25

3 Wilyer Abreu 43 D +400 · 89 0.165 89.8 10.2% 8.7%vs LHP 402 11.6% 0.0% 8.0% 26

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D +525 COOL 114 0.166 86.1 7.0% 14.3%vs LHP 372 9.4% 8.3% 9.4% 38

5 Caleb Durbin 38 D +700 COOL 122 0.154 84.8 5.3% 12.5%vs LHP 373 8.5% 25.0% 14.4% 32

6 Carlos Narvaez 32 D — COOL 161 0.078 91.5 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 12

7 Masataka Yoshida 32 D — WARM 162 0.108 88.5 4.4% 4.8% 390 5.9% 12.5% 8.0% 15

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ +280 COOL 16 0.256 89.3 14.4% 21.7% 398 27.1% 27.3% 24.0% 30

2 Miguel Vargas 59 C +320 WARM 21 0.238 90.4 14.9% 16.3% 389 21.6% 25.0% 21.9% 34

3 Andrew Benintendi 44 D — · 101 0.182 89.3 10.2% 14.5% 391 15.5% 12.5% 9.7% 25

4 Tristan Peters 34 D +850 · 172 0.163 86.8 4.6% 7.7% 371 7.8% 18.2% 9.6% 33

5 Sam Antonacci 33 D +950 COOL 175 0.127 87.7 6.8% 9.4% 405 8.3% 10.0% 6.5% 34

6 Chase Meidroth 29 D +950 COOL 184 0.116 87.7 4.5% 11.9% 376 6.7% 8.3% 6.7% 32

7 Luisangel Acuna 22 D — COOL 196 0.033 89.5 4.2% 3.7% 416 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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