TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.32×

CHC @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 6 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

1:35p

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2:35p

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3:35p

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4:35p

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5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +10 FIT

Best of game Samuel Basallo conv 27 · vs Peterson ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 28 · vs Rogers → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · NYM

leak 26

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Samuel Basallo — C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso — C ●●●○○

3 Tyler O'Neill — D ●●●○○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 13

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki — C ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C+ ●●●●○

3 Dansby Swanson — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 10.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Rogers Edge — 0.181 · 89.4 · 7.8% 33.3% 23.1% F B O C 54

· — Samuel Basallo vs Peterson — 0.207 · 91.3 · 8.6% 25.0% 28.3% F B O C 57

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Rogers — 0.227 · 90.4 · 8.5% 25.0% 26.2% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Rogers Edge — 0.203 · 90.0 · 7.4% 16.7% 25.5% F B O C 54

· — Pete Alonso COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.211 · 94.1 · 8.8% 18.2% 19.2% F B O C 58

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Rogers — 0.160 · 88.3 · 8.6% 16.7% 11.4% F B O C 50

· — Coby Mayo vs Peterson Edge — 0.175 · 92.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 24.1% F B O C 51

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.223 · 89.7 · 9.4% 8.3% 15.1% F B O C 57

· — Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Peterson — 0.187 · 89.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 19.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Tyler O'Neill HOT vs Peterson Edge — 0.106 · 89.3 · 6.7% 25.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· — Leody Taveras vs Peterson Edge — 0.128 · 87.2 · 5.2% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 40

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Rogers Edge — 0.110 · 88.5 · 6.4% 12.5% 10.4% F B O D 41

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.133 · 87.7 · 5.5% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 41

· — Adley Rutschman COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.188 · 89.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 47

· CHC Miguel Amaya vs Rogers Edge — 0.188 · 86.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.096 · 85.7 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 32

· — Taylor Ward COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.098 · 89.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· — Blaze Alexander COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.118 · 92.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.6% ← leak OFF 22.6% BRK 11.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.4% 10.2% 13.0% 10.6% C+ 60 —

Ian Happ S Edge

16.3% 3.7% 20.8% 14.1% C 57 —

Dansby Swanson R Edge

8.7% 14.8% 4.5% 8.2% C 54 —

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

9.7% 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% C 54 —

Michael Busch L

13.0% 3.6% 7.5% 10.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Miguel Amaya R Edge

11.7% 0.0% 7.1% 9.3% D 45 —

106

Carson Kelly R Edge

7.6% 6.7% 4.0% 6.5% D 41 —

108

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.8% 6.9% 6.8% 5.5% D 41 —

172

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.0% ← leak BRK 36.1% OFF 11.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R Edge

16.0% 6.6% 13.3% 12.9% C 58 —

Samuel Basallo L

15.7% 8.9% 9.3% 12.2% C 57 —

Coby Mayo R Edge

8.3% 9.8% 11.1% 9.2% C 51 —

Gunnar Henderson L

8.0% 6.9% 7.8% 7.6% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Adley Rutschman S Edge

11.9% 2.2% 4.5% 8.0% D 47 —

Tyler O'Neill R Edge

10.1% 13.6% 0.0% 9.5% D 43 —

109

Blaze Alexander R Edge

7.3% 6.0% 6.2% 6.8% D 41 —

113

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 10.3% 0.0% 4.8% D 40 —

141

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.9% 0.0% 2.9% 5.8% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Swanson Suzuki Busch Alonso Basallo O'Neill Taveras

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Seiya Suzuki — · 54

Samuel Basallo — · 57

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 60

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 6 mph out 87°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

1:35p · peak

+10

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

2:35p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

3:35p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

4:35p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 87°F, wind 6 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 60 C+ — COOL 10 0.227 90.4 8.5% 25.0%vs LHP 392 20.7% 25.0% 26.2% 30

2 Ian Happ 57 C — COOL 16 0.223 89.7 9.4% 16.0%vs LHP 402 19.8% 8.3% 15.1% 28

3 Dansby Swanson 54 C — WARM 24 0.203 90.0 7.4% 23.8%vs LHP 403 14.4% 16.7% 25.5% 36

4 Seiya Suzuki 54 C — WARM 26 0.181 89.4 7.8% 25.0%vs LHP 407 14.1% 33.3% 23.1% 36

5 Michael Busch 50 C — COOL 48 0.160 88.3 8.6% 12.0%vs LHP 403 12.9% 16.7% 11.4% 33

6 Miguel Amaya 45 D — WARM 80 0.188 86.4 6.8% 8.3%vs LHP 384 5.9% 0.0% 11.4% 10

7 Carson Kelly 41 D — · 106 0.110 88.5 6.4% 15.0%vs LHP 421 6.5% 12.5% 10.4% 17

8 Alex Bregman 41 D — COOL 108 0.133 87.7 5.5% 11.8%vs LHP 398 6.7% 8.3% 8.5% 42

9 Nico Hoerner 32 D — COOL 172 0.096 85.7 2.5% 9.1%vs LHP 383 4.4% 0.0% 8.1% 39

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 58 C — COOL 13 0.211 94.1 8.8% 10.7%vs LHP 399 19.8% 18.2% 19.2% 26

2 Samuel Basallo 57 C — · 14 0.207 91.3 8.6% 16.7%vs LHP 399 15.4% 25.0% 28.3% 23

3 Coby Mayo 51 C — WARM 36 0.175 92.0 7.6% 41.2%vs LHP 403 14.1% 0.0% 24.1% 12

4 Gunnar Henderson 50 C — COOL 44 0.187 89.5 6.8% 43.8%vs LHP 388 16.9% 0.0% 19.8% 40

5 Adley Rutschman 47 D — COOL 60 0.188 89.6 6.9% 13.0%vs LHP 400 10.0% 0.0% 11.4% 27

6 Tyler O'Neill 43 D — HOT 87 0.106 89.3 6.7% 5.0%vs LHP 408 10.0% 25.0% 11.8% 9

7 Blaze Alexander 41 D — COOL 109 0.118 92.1 6.6% 7.7%vs LHP 392 5.1% 0.0% 7.3% 26

8 Leody Taveras 40 D — WARM 113 0.128 87.2 5.2% 11.1%vs LHP 410 1.6% 16.7% 10.4% 15

9 Taylor Ward 37 D — COOL 141 0.098 89.4 6.0% 10.0%vs LHP 393 5.4% 0.0% 7.6% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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